E ARLY W ARNING I NDICATOR S YSTEM Jessica Noble Education Program Consultant, KSDE

W HAT IS AN E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM ? o A reporting system that is linked to the school data files. o Identifies potential dropouts and brings these students to the attention of school, district and state personnel. o Provides different levels of reporting. o Linked to a notification/reporting system. o Includes or linked to intervention component.

W HY AN E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM ? The decision to drop out is rarely the result of a single life event; in fact, many students exhibit academic warning signs years before they leave high school. Students who dropped out usually had received a failing grade in core courses (especially in math or English), earned a low grade point average (GPA), or scored low on achievement tests. They were often retained in grade because they had not earned enough credits to be promoted; as a result, many were older than the other students in their class. Furthermore, as demonstrated by low attendance rates and disciplinary problems, these students were frequently not engaged in their education or aware of its importance to future opportunities.

W HY AN E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM ? Early-warning data offers a way to address a problem that plagues many dropout prevention efforts: efficiently targeting the right students. Specifically, students who might be considered at risk of dropping out due to demographic factors, but who are actually successful in school, would not receive unnecessary dropout prevention interventions, while students with high yield academic risk factors who would otherwise remain unidentified would be more likely to receive the help they need.

H OW S CHOOLS C AN U SE AN E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM ( STUDENT L EVEL D ATA ) Teachers: Identify students who need special attention Work with other teachers and counselors to plan interventions for at-risk students Alert parents to the areas in which their children need help School Leadership: Plan interventions for individual students and assign responsibilities to school staff School Counselors: Work with teachers to plan interventions for at-risk students outside of class and to communicate with the students’ parents

H OW S CHOOLS C AN U SE AN E ARLY W ARNING S YSTEM (A GGREGATE D ATA ) School and District Leadership: Develop short-term strategies to assist at-risk students Develop long-term strategies to reduce the number of at-risk students School Board/ Community Leaders: Prioritize funding for long-term strategies to reduce the number of at-risk students State Policymakers: Guide policy based on information about short- and long-term student risk factors Parents Become aware of risk factors that would be a special concern in their children

Student was not retained and will be 18 on June 30, points Student was not retained but will be 19 on June 30, point Student was retained or will be 20 on June 30, points Student passed both subjects at grade 7 and grade 80 points Student did not pass English at grade 71 point Student did not pass Math at grade 71 point Student did not pass English at grade 82 points Student did not pass Math at grade 82 points Student had no reported mobility0 points Student had one reported incident of mobility1 point Student had two or more reported incidents of mobility2 points Attendance greater than 95%0 points Attendance 90% to 95%1 point Less than 90% attendance or more than 15 days unexcused absences2 points

INDIANA Based on total points, potential risk levels are assigned as: Low Risk:0–3 points Medium Risk:4–8 points High Risk:>9 points The IN model is based on four indicators: Retention Grades Mobility Attendance

LOUISIANA The LA model is based on four indicators: Attendance: Ratio of number of days absent to number of days enrolled Discipline: Ratio of discipline referrals to days of enrollment GPA: Student GPA for two grading periods Over Aged: Students whose age is greater than or equal to the grade level plus 7 years. Each indicator has a trigger that will indicated whether the student is at-risk

MASSACHUSETTS The MA model is based on three indicators: The student's spring grade 8 MCAS mathematics score; The student's spring grade 8 MCAS English language arts (ELA) score; and The student's spring grade 8 attendance rate. A student's performance with respect to each of these indicators generates “points” which are then added together. A student's risk level will therefore range from Low Risk (3-23 points) to Very High Risk (51-60 points).

P OSSIBLE I NDICATORS Failed core academic courses Number of credits earned Failing grades Test scores Proficiency levels Retention in grade Overage for grade High absenteeism ELL Special Education Student-teacher ratio Class size Discipline incidents Pregnancy Juvenile justice placement Foster care placement Race/ethnicity Socioeconomic status Single parent households Mobility

H IGH Y IELD I NDICATORS Type of Information IndicatorBrief DescriptionBenchmark (Red Flag) Attendance Absenteeism RateNumber of days absent during the first 20 days and each quarter of the first year of high school The equivalent of more than 10% of instructional time missed during the first year indicates student may be at risk. Course Performance Course FailuresNumber of Fs in any semester- long course during the first year of high school Even one failed course indicates student may be at risk. Grade Point Average (GPA) GPA for each semester and cumulative GPA GPA under 2.0 indicates student may be at risk. On-Track IndicatorCombination of the number of Fs in core academic courses and credits earned during the first year of high school Two or more Fs in core academic courses and/or fewer than one-fourth of the credits required to graduate minus one indicate that student is off track to graduate. From the National High School Center

E ARLY W ARNING I NDICATOR W ORKGROUP 30 person workgroup comprised of KSDE and non-KSDE staff Created a data subgroup to test the indicators against the data that we already have Will meet again in January 2011

E ARLY W ARNING I NDICATOR W ORKGROUP Why should we develop an early warning indicator system? What is the purpose of the system? Will participation be mandatory or optional? How can we make the information timely and meaningful? Who is the target audience? What delivery system model should we use? What indicators should we use? What is the timeline for completion?