2016 LATE SPRING/SUMMER FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK EASTERN AREA PREDICTIVE SERVICES

30 DAY SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES End of July 2015April 20, 2016

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR April 19, 2016

LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT INDEX April 16, 2016

12 MONTH STANDARD PRECIPITATION INDEX January through December 2015

6 MONTH DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PRECIPITATION Late October 2015 into Late April 2016

SNOW DEPTHS ON APRIL 20, 2016

90 DAY TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES EFFECT OF STRONG EL NINO Ending on April 19, 2016

U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK Valid through July 31, 2016

PSA03

CANADIAN BUILD-UP INDICES OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

PSA04

CANADIAN BUILD-UP INDICES OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

PSA06

CANADIAN BUILD-UP INDICES OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

PSA13

BURNING INDICES OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

PSA17

BURNING INDICES OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

PSA21

CANADIAN BUILD-UP INDICES OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

PSA24

BURNING INDICES OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

1000 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE OVERLAID – LAST STRONG EL NINO WINTER

CLIMATE OUTLOOK DISCUSSION POINTS Past Weather and Drought: 30 day soil moisture and precipitation anomalies were below normal across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and northwestern Minnesota at the end of March Above normal precipitation and soil moisture anomalies were on place over the majority of the central and eastern Great Lakes as well as Indiana into Ohio. Weather and Climate Outlook: Drier than normal conditions overall are forecast over much of the western half of the Eastern Area through the rest of the spring season. Warmer than normal conditions are forecast over the majority of the Eastern Area into the summer of Above normal precipitation trends are forecast along the East Coast March into April as systems continue to track through the southern tier of the U.S. and then up the East Coast. Fire Season Timing: Above normal fire potential is expected to persist or develop over the Mississippi Valley through the rest of the spring fire season as drier and warmer trends prevail prior to green up. The 2016 Spring Fire Season may begin 2-3 weeks earlier than normal across the northern tier of the Eastern Area due to expected warmer than normal temperature trends.

PREDICTIVE SERVICES 2016 LATE SPRING SUMMER TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

APRIL 2016 FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

MAY 2016 FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

JUNE-JULY 2016 FIRE POTENTIAL OUTLOOK

COMMENTS/QUESTIONS? STEPHEN MARIEN EASTERN AREA FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM MANAGER OFFICE: CELL: EASTERN AREA PREDICTIVE SERVICES