North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity (NPCREP) NOAA Fisheries Ned Cyr NOAA Fisheries Service Office of Science and Technology Silver Spring, MD

Strategic Goal #1: Protect, restore, and manage coastal and ocean resources through an ecosystem approach to management. Strategic Goal #2: Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond. Ecosystem Goal Team Climate Goal Team NOS NWS OAR NMFS NESDIS NOAA Matrix Science

NPCREP Research Focus – The Bering Sea Climate sensitivity Resource value Knowledge base Observing system Leverage with other programs Why?

Alaska Supplies about Half the Sea Food Caught in the U.S.

Protected Species Right Whale Bowhead Whales Steller Sea Lion Humpback Whale

Impact of Quasi-Decadal Climate Patterns on Salmon Catch (millions) Time history of PDO and AO indices (top) and associated changes in biological populations (bottom). Hare and Mantua, 2000

Warming Conditions are Being Observed at High Latitudes

Relative fish abundance 60 o N 58 o N 60 o N 58 o N 170 o W o W Ocean temperature determines distribution of fish °C

FY05 Plans: Observe Preserve and expand NPCREP’s biophysical observing system to detect climate impacts. –Deploy and recover middle shelf moorings. –Initiate a spring biophysical survey of the Bering Sea shelf. –Conduct a pilot summer plankton survey in the Bering Sea.

FY05 Plans: Understand Achieve a mechanistic understanding of climate- ecosystem interactions. –Study transport of larvae within the shelf. –Explore the role of eddies in cross-shelf flux. –Build a conceptual model for the eastern Bering Sea. –Undertake retrospective analyses of Gulf of Alaska larval fish.

FY05 Plans: Predict

FY05 Plans: Advise and Inform Provide essential information on climate and ecosystems to stakeholders. –Improve climate-ecosystem advice to the North Pacific Fishery Management Council. –Develop an NPCREP website. –Support the Bering Climate web site –Begin development of a Gulf of Alaska climate web site.

FY05 Effort and Spending

Challenges and Priorities Challenges: Secure funding support and ship time. Integrate new technology to achieve real-time reporting of in situ observations. Priorities: Establish observation network. Develop tools to synthesize/integrate large numbers of indices or metrics. Increase understanding of mechanisms. Incorporate environmental data into forecast/stock assessment models.

Climate affects the ecosystem through sea ice FebruaryMarchAprilMayJune Early Ice Retreat Late Bloom, Warm Water – Large Copepod Biomass Late Ice Retreat Early Bloom, Cold Water – Small Copepod Biomass