World Population since 1AD and how long it took to put on an extra million people.

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Presentation transcript:

World Population since 1AD and how long it took to put on an extra million people

Global fertility – number of children per woman; high point is sub-Saharan Africa

Where the median age will be less than 25 in 2030

Future population growth (log scale)

There are now more human babies born each day-- about 350,000-- than there are individuals left in all the great ape species combined, including gorillas, chimpanzees, bonobos and orangutans.

Chimp population estimates

Decline in suitable environmental conditions for African great apes Diversity and Distributions Volume 18, Issue 11, pages , 23 SEP 2012 DOI: /ddi Volume 18, Issue 11,

Projected decline to 2030 in suitable environmental conditions for African great apes Diversity and Distributions Volume 18, Issue 11, pages , 23 SEP 2012 DOI: /ddi Volume 18, Issue 11,

The Voyage of the Beagle

Galapagos

The bottleneck effect

Genetic drift

Plus the effect of repeated sampling in small populations (genetic drift)

Decrease in numbers of heterozygotes (ie genetic diversity) with time in small populations under genetic drift

Pingelap

Pingelap – achromotopsia; pupil opens in light, closes in dark; Ben Simon G J et al. Br J Ophthalmol 2004;88: ©2004 by BMJ Publishing Group Ltd.

Tristan da cunha

Population of tristan Population of Tristan da Cunha

Retinoblastoma

Harmonic mean over k generations: Imagine a fluctuating population: over k=5 generations Arithmetic mean is 802 (4010/5) Harmonic mean is 48 ie a bottleneck can be very important with long-lasting effects! Harmonic mean calc The Harmonic Mean and the joy of bottlenecks

Amish Family

Amish colonies before 1850

Expansion of the Amish since 1990 (red dots)

Old Order Amish numbers since 1900 (2014: Amish [!])

Amish genetics

Amish child with Ellis-van-Creveld syndrome: genetic drift

Cartilage-hair hypoplasia - Amish

Sexual dimorphism; gorillas, chimps, humans

RATIO OF MALE TO FEMALE VARIABILITY IN REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS FINLAND 0.79 NORWAY1.02 USA 1.27 YANOMAMA (AMAZON)2.30 XAVANTE (BRAZIL)3.10 ACHE (PARAGUAY)4.22 DOGON (MALI)4.75

A family on holiday in Sweden

Y chromosome haplotype or “surname”

The boundaries of the Mongol Empire (shaded)

Genghis Khan

Likely world colonisation routes, and genetic distance from E Africa (shades of green)

Extent of genetic diversity against walking distance from Addis Ababa

Estimated bottleneck size for women (red triangle) and men (blue); modern figure at top, original bottleneck bottom

Runs of homozygosity in a modern Frenchman and two Neanderthals – high inbreeding in Neanderthals: small populations?.

Size of recent world bottlenecks and effective population sizes ORIGINAL WITH MODERN POPULATION INCREASE Men WomenMenWomen Out of Africa Into Europe Into India Into Australia Into Americas

The ultimate bottleneck: Man as an endangered ancient primate

Geographical variation in humans and their relatives

Human and chimp population sizes over 10my estimated from genetic data

The future of one endangered species

And another?