Chapter Five: Public Opinion and Political Socialization

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 2 Public Opinion and the Models of Democracy Public Opinion: the collected attitudes of citizens concerning a given issue or question

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 3 Public Opinion and the Models of Democracy Characteristics of public opinion –The public’s attitudes toward a government policy can vary over time, often dramatically –Public opinion places boundaries on allowable types of public policy –If asked, people are willing to register opinions on matters outside their expertise –Governments tend to respond to public opinion –The government sometimes does not do what the people want

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 4 Public Opinion and the Models of Democracy Sampling a Few, Predicting to Everyone –Statistical sampling theory: a sample of individuals selected by chance from any population is representative of that population –Sampling theory does not claim that a sample exactly matches the population, only that it reflects the population with some predictable degree of accuracy.

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 5 Public Opinion and the Models of Democracy Three factors determine the accuracy of a sample: –How the sample is selected: randomly –The size of the sample: the larger the sample, the more accurately it represents the population –The amount of variation in the population: the greater the population variation, the greater the chance that one random sample will differ from another.

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 6 Gallup Poll Accuracy

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 7 Public Opinion and the Models of Democracy Assumptions about the role of public opinion in democratic government –The majoritarian model: the government should do what a majority of the public wants –The pluralist model: requires that government institutions allow free expression of opinion by “minority publics”

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 8 The Distribution of Public Opinion Government must analyze the shape and the stability of the distribution of public opinion Stable distribution: shows little change over time Shape of the Distribution –The shape of the opinion distribution depicts the pattern of all the responses when counted and plotted –The 3 patterns of distribution: Skewed Distribution: An asymmetrical but generally bell-shaped distribution (of opinions); its most frequent response, lies off to one side Bimodal Distribution: A distribution (of opinions) that shows two responses being chosen about as frequently as each other Normal Distribution: A symmetrical bell-shaped distribution (of opinions) centered on a single mode, or most frequent response.

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 9 Three Distributions of Opinion

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 10 Political Socialization Political Socialization: the complex process by which people acquire their political values.

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 11 Political Socialization The Agents of Early Socialization –Two fundamental principles characterize early learning The primacy principle: what is learned first is learned best The structuring principle: what is learned first structures later learning –Agents that structure early socialization include The family School Community and peers

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 12 Political Socialization Continuing Socialization –Peer groups assume greater importance is promoting political awareness and shaping opinions –Older Americans rely on newspapers and television news for political information –Younger Americans are more likely to rely on radio, magazines or the Internet for political information

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 13 Political Socialization, Age, and Public Opinion

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 14 Social Groups and Political Values People with similar backgrounds tend to develop similar political opinions Characteristics that shape political opinions –Education –Income –Race and ethnicity –Religion –Gender

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 15 Deviations of Group Opinion from National Opinion on Two Questions of Order and Equality

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 16 From Values to Ideology The Degree of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion –Education leads to increased ideological thinking –The extent of ideological thinking in the U.S. is low

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 17 From Values to Ideology The Quality of Ideological Thinking in Public Opinion –In many people’s minds, Liberals are associated with change –In many people’s minds, Conservatives are associated with tradition More helpful to think about tradeoffs; –Liberals are more willing to trade freedom for equality –Conservatives are more wiling to trade freedom for order

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 18 From Values to Ideology Ideological Types in the United States –Conservative responses are the most common pattern –Communitarian responses are the 2 nd most common pattern

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 19 Respondents Classified by Ideological Tendencies

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 20 Forming Political Opinions Political Knowledge –Political knowledge is not randomly distributed –Women, African Americans, the poor, and the young tend to be less knowledgeable about politics than men, white, the affluent, and older citizens –The collective opinion of the public may still be interpreted as stable and meaningful

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 21 Forming Political Opinions Costs, Benefits, and Cues –Self-interest principle: the implication that people choose what benefits them personally –Plays an obvious role in how people form opinions on government policies

Copyright © Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.5 | 22 Forming Political Opinions Political Leadership –Public opinion is molded b political leaders, journalists, and policy experts –Politicians give cues to members of the public –Issue framing: the way that politicians or interest group leaders defines an issue when presenting it to others