Winter 2006/07 so far Gas Forum 29 January 2007

2 Actual Weather  December was the 5th warmest on record on a Composite Weather Variable Basis

3 Gas Demand  No GBAs issued to date

4 Gas Prices

5 Gas Demand Behaviour - Industrial  Industrial demand has remained close to unrestricted forecast due to low prices

6 Gas Demand Behaviour - Generation  CCGT demand has generally followed the unrestricted forecast due to nuclear outages and low gas prices  However it has fallen to restricted levels during cold spells, particularly at weekends when the generation margin is greater.

7 Winter 2006/07: gas import infrastructure  Pre-existing or new infrastructure now available for use IUK  Existing Belgium interconnector Capacity upgrade completed 1 Oct BBL  New Dutch interconnector Commercial flows commenced 1 Dec Langeled  New pipeline from the Sleipner platform Commercial flows commenced 1 Oct Excelerate LNG Energy Bridge Expected Feb 2007 Grain LNG  Existing LNG import facility Vesterled  Existing link to Norwegian Continental Shelf

8 Gas Supplies UKCS mainstay of UK supplies Non-storage supply (mcm/d) Base case assumptions Actual 1 Oct – 20 Jan Oct-DecJan-MarMaxAverage IUK Imports and storage use coincide with demand peaks Higher flows than anticipated via Langeled and BBL since commissioning

9 Long Range Storage  LRS monitor cannot be breached this winter

10 Medium Range Storage  MRS monitor cannot be breached this winter

11 Short Range Storage  2.9 days stock at maximum rate before monitor breach