Status / Progress Report for GPC Tokyo Takayuki Tokuhiro Climate Prediction Division, JMA

Prediction System There was no major change in the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for seasonal and extended- range forecasting after the last meeting of ET-ELRF (June 2010).

Prediction System - Future Implementation- The higher resolution models will be introduced within a few years. CGCM for seasonal forecasting: TL95L40  TL159L60 AGCM for extended-range forecasting: TL159L60  TL319L100 By performing hindcast experiments with target period of past several years, the climatological reference period ( ) used in observation and in hindcasts will be equivalent within a few years.

Prediction System - Future Implementation- Currently Weekly and Monthly forecast systems are separated. Two forecast systems will be unified in around five years as development toward a seamless forecast system. Current status Weekly Monthly T L 479L100 T L 319L100 2 weeks1 month Forecast time Around 2017 Initial

Products GPC Tokyo products such as gridded model outputs, forecast map and verifications are available on the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) web site ( x.html). GPC Tokyo supports TCC in the production of tailored forecast products for the Asia-Pacific Region. GPC Tokyo products are used by NMHSs, TCC and Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) in Asia.

New Products In 2011, the new products are available on the TCC website to enhance the convenience of users. Tercile Probability Forecasts for three-month-averaged SST Tercile Probability Forecasts with up to three-month lead time for Warm/Cold Season SVSLRF Level 1 scores for Niño region indices Ensemble mean gridded model outputs of One-month Forecast were changed from weekly data to daily data.

New Products Verifications of One-month Forecast from Hindcast Score map (Anomaly correlation) Score of index

Mew Products Animation of One-month Model Prediction Forecast Period Initial date Setting for animation (Start, Stop) Parameters – Z500 (NH) – T850 (NH) – SLP(NH) – CHI200 (Tropics) – PSI200 (Tropics) – PSI850 (Tropics) – Rain anomaly (Tropics) – U200 (Tropics) – Wind vector anomaly (Tropics) – Surface temperature (Tropics)

Supporting the TCC Training Seminar After the last meeting of ET-ELRF (June 2010), the TCC Training Seminar on use of forecast products took place twice at JMA Headquarters in Tokyo. One was the seminar on Seasonal Forecast Products in January 2011 and the other was the seminar on One-month Forecast Products in November 2011.

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