HYMN meeting Bremen Current challenges in modeling of CH 4, N 2 O and H 2 based on comparison to surface observations. 2. Suggestion for H 2 scenario(s)

Methane sensitivity runs for st run (Bousquet run) Methane Emissions from Bousquet aposteriori/inversion 2nd run (LPJ run) Anthropogenic –rice from Bousquet Natural + rice from LPJ (scaled so that anthrop+natural= total 1st run)

Oslo CTM2 LPJ run Oslo CTM2 Bousquet run TM4 Bousquet run TM4 LPJ run Surface Methane March 2004

OsloCTM2 CH 4 March 2004, Bousquet run (upper left corner) Same but natural CH 4 isolated (lowe left) Same but anthropogenic CH 4 (lower right)

OsloCTM2 (uppper left) TM4 (upper right) OsloCTM2 extra components (lower left)

N 2 O budget 2004 Loss Stratospheric loss Tg Sources Biomass burning 0.7 Tg Anthropogenic Tg Ocean5.97 Tg Soil (from LPJ)11.0 Tg Burden2430 Tg

OsloCTM2 March 2004, (upper left corner) Same but ”anthropogenic” N2O isolated (lowe left) Same but natural N2O (lower right)

March 2004 October 2004

HYMN meeting Bremen Understanding the hydrogen budget Simulations performed in Eurohydros, work done by Amund Søvde and Frode Stordal

PRI-2 and SAN-2 for 2006 after 1 year of spinup. Started from the same field (previous SAN-run) EH4 is 2002, started 1. Jan 2000 from SAN-2 field at 1.Jan 2007.

HYM-1 and SAN-1 for 2006 starting from the same field. Started from the same field (previous SAN-run)

Two other methane studies relevant for HYMN Effect of emission changes in Southeast Asia on global hydroxyl and methane lifetime S. B. Dalsøren, I.S.A. Isaksen, L Li, A. Richter, accepted TELLUS, HYMN acknowledged

HyWays - an integrated project to develop the European Hydrogen Energy Roadmap Integrated project, co-funded by research institutes, industry and by the European Commission (EC) under the 6th Framework Programme The project was performed from April 2004 and was finalized in June For the timeframes 2020, 2030 and 2050, the aggregated member state specific results for greenhouse gas emissions, preferred hydrogen production and infrastructure technologies, the build-up of supply infrastructure and end-use technologies was integrated into a proposal for an EU Hydrogen Energy Roadmap for the participating areas.

Substantial emission reduction can be achieved in a cost effective way. At the same time, security of supply is improved and new economic opportunities are created. Despite these advantages, initial barriers prevent hydrogen from entering the energy system at a sufficient pace in case no further policy incentives are provided. The Action Plan provides concrete actions that need to be taken with priority in order to overcome smoothly the initial barriers

Annual CO 2 emissions from European road transport Mtons/a Emission reduction potential Base line (-30% CO 2 ) Modest policy support, modest learning High policy support, high learning Very high support, high learning Hydrogen scenarios:  Over 50% reduction of emissions from road transport by 2050.

Scenarios for reduced vehicle emissions (CO, NOx, PM, NMVOCs, CH4, N2O, CO2) % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% FR DE GR IT NL NO FI ES PL UK Countries NO x emissions* compared to baseline * High support, high learning scenario 70% reduction by

Hyways only give tank to wheel emissions What about well to tank (Emissions of pollutants during production, transport etc) Hyways lacks Hydrogen emission scenarios (combustion and leakage) from both well to tank and tank to wheel

Switching to a U.S. hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet: The resultant change in emissions, energy use, and greenhouse gases W.G. Colella, M.Z. Jacobson, D.M. Golden

Study including well to tank and hydrogen Switching to a U.S. hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet: The resultant change in emissions, energy use, and greenhouse gases W.G. Colella, M.Z. Jacobson, D.M. Golden, Journal of Power Sources 2005 Cleaning the air and improving health with hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles M.Z. Jacobson, W.G. Colella, D.M. Golden, Science 308 (2005)

Suggestions for sceanrios on hydrogen and European road transport Use HYWAYS best case hydrogen scenario ( for emission of pollutants from vehicles (tank to wheel) Use U.S. study information on well to tank emissions Evaluate for each pollutant if these are negligible or not. Use U.S. study to obtain emissions of hydrogen. (They assume extremely high leakage of 10 %, unrealistic, but we have something to refer to, that is consistent with the well to tank estimates for other pollutants, and we can call it an upper estimate)

Suggested Simulations One for year 2000 One for year 2050 HYWAYS baseline scenario with non-hydrogen vehicles only One for year 2050 with best case hydrogen scenario Study both the effects of reduction in CO, Nox…. and the effect of increase/changes in H 2 emissions.