Weather Science and Airport Applications Jonathan Dutton 23 rd June 2015

Weather Science and Airport Applications

Focus on: 1. Safety 2. Efficiency & performance

Forecast challenges

Low visibility forecasting – science Challenges of LVP forecasts Current work to improve forecast skill Future work to improve forecast skill

Challenges of fog forecasting

Why LVP forecasting is challenging Subtle local differences in temperature and wind matter

Current science to improve fog forecast skill New observations: 1.Highways England network of observations 2.Wind profiler at Chilbolton 3.Extra AMDAR and radiosondes

Current science to improve fog forecast skill Model physics : Model physics and data assimilation upgrades Improvements to visibility diagnostic Development of a new forecast model with very high resolution

Current science to improve fog forecast skill Local model – research tool, 300M resolution

Future work to improve LVP forecasts LANFEX - improving our understanding of fog physics A multi year observation campaign at: Cardington (to understand fog processes at flat sites) Shropshire (to understand the effect of hills on fog formation/dissipation).

Future work to improve LVP forecasts A plan over the next few years which spans across the specialist science areas of the Met Office. Further improvements to observations such as the enhanced use of TAMDAR and MODE-S. Further improvements to forecast models through assimilation of additional observations and improved physics. Expansion of new very high resolution model Improved short term forecasts (0-6 hour forecasts) through UK-wide hourly cycling NWP.

Weather Science and Airport Applications

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