Delivering on Doha’s Promise: The Role of Rich Country Policies Nancy Birdsall Center for Global Development Cancun Trade and Development Symposium September.

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Presentation transcript:

Delivering on Doha’s Promise: The Role of Rich Country Policies Nancy Birdsall Center for Global Development Cancun Trade and Development Symposium September 11, 2003 Cancun, Mexico

Components  Aid  Trade  Investment  Environment  Migration  Peacekeeping

Overall Scores

Trade Aggregate measure of protection in tariff equivalent terms: Tariffs Tariffs Non-tariff barriers Non-tariff barriers Subsidies Subsidies Revealed Openness

Total Tariff Equivalent of Agricultural Protection Against Developing Countries (percent tariff equivalent) USCanadaEUJapan Tariffs Tariff-Equivalent of domestic subsidies Total Tariff- Equivalent Source: William Cline, “An Index of Industrial Country Trade Policy toward Developing Countries,” CGD Working Paper #14, October 2002.

Trade Results

Global Free Trade Can Reduce Poverty in Developing Countries by: 1. Opening Agriculture Markets 2. Raising Unskilled Labor Wages 3. Boosting Productivity 4. Inducing Investment 5. An early harvest: free market access for poor nations

Liberalization of agricultural markets Agricultural protection against developing countries: 34 percent in the United States 100 percent in the EU 230 percent in Japan 65 percent in Canada Free trade in agriculture would reduce global poverty by an estimated 200 million people, or about 7 percent. Source: William Cline, “Trading Up: Trade Policy and Global Poverty,” CGD Brief 7, September 2003.

The Impact of Global Agricultural Liberalization on Poverty in Selected Countries Biggest Reductions in Poverty, (%) Biggest Reductions in Poverty, (millions) Malawi (15.2)China (72.1) Vietnam (15.1)India (59.2) Kenya (14.8)Bangladesh (12.0) Tanzania (12.0)Pakistan (10.4) Bangladesh (11.8)Indonesia (9.9) Source: William Cline, “Trading Up: Trade Policy and Global Poverty,” CGD Brief 7, September 2003.

Poverty Intensity of US Imports from Developing Countries Source: William Cline, “Trading Up: Trade Policy and Global Poverty,” CGD Brief 7, September RegionGains from Trade Accruing to the Poor Total8.16 LDC44.1 HIPC38.7 SSA55.8

Impact of Global Free Trade on Global Poverty Reduction (in millions, cumulative) Source: William Cline, “Trading Up: Trade Policy and Global Poverty,” CGD Brief 7, September 2003.