1. Foundations of Research 1 Introduction to research in psychology. 12 / 18 / 14  No screens in class (including phones) : turn it off and put it away! i>Clicker: Register your i>clicker on both Blackboard and the i>clicker web site!  Students who fail to correctly register will not get lecture credit.  See if you are correctly registered by whether you are getting lecture credit on Blackboard. Make sure your frequency is set to ‘AA’. When you click, make sure the green light shows you were received.

2. Foundations of Research 2  What is science?  Beliefs v. facts  Science, anti-science, pseudoscience.  Where does knowledge of the world come from? Introductory lectures Cranach, Tree of Knowledge [of Good and Evil] (1472)  © Dr. David J. McKirnan, 2015 The University of Illinois Chicago McKirnanUIC@gmail.com Do not use or reproduce without permission

3. Foundations of Research 3 Core components of science What is science? Values: Science combines Critical thought with Empiricism We are interested in the Natural World The core purpose of scientific study is Theory: how do natural processes work? Theory development rests on Evidence : How do you know? Values: Science combines Critical thought with Empiricism We are interested in the Natural World The core purpose of scientific study is Theory: how do natural processes work? Theory development rests on Evidence : How do you know?

4. Foundations of Research 4 Core components of science What is science? Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Science is public Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Science is public Methods Objective approaches Basic experimental design Specific research procedures Methods Objective approaches Basic experimental design Specific research procedures Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know? Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know?

5. Foundations of Research 5 Core components of science What is science? Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Science is public Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Science is public Methods Objective approaches Basic experimental design Specific research procedures Methods Objective approaches Basic experimental design Specific research procedures Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know? Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know?

6. Foundations of Research 6 Critical thinking Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know? Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know?  How do you know that?  What empirical evidence is there? How do you know if the evidence is valid and reliable?  Does it make sense? Is it logically coherent? Does it jibe with what we already know about the world?  What other explanation or interpretation may make more sense?

7. Foundations of Research 7 What is critical thinking? Active Seek (new & diverse) information rather than passively accepting an existing or traditional conclusion. Skeptical; Suspend belief until there is evidence Make judgments about whether something… Is plausible & rational Is supported by evidence Be clear on the limitations of your and others’ knowledge Be prepared to change in the face of new evidence or theory Creative Develop and consider alternative explanations or interpretations Imagine different ways to evaluate or test a claim (Not simply doubting everything) Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Values: Critical thought + Empiricism

8. Foundations of Research 8 How does critical thought map on to science? Here is the model of the scientific process we will use (and that you will use for your paper!): Phenomenon Theory Hypothesis Methods / Data Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Critical thinking & Science

9. Foundations of Research 9 Critical thinking in science One model of the scientific process: Phenomenon Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Values: Critical thought + Empiricism What do we not understand about some important part of the world? Gaps in knowledge? New idea or concept?

10. Foundations of Research 10 Critical thinking in science One model of the scientific process: Phenomenon Theory Explain the phenomenon? Coherent & logical principles? Basic physical, social or psychological processes? Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Values: Critical thought + Empiricism

11. Foundations of Research 11 One model of the scientific process: Phenomenon Theory Concrete & specific prediction flows from – and tests – theory? If I manipulate… If I am observing… Hypothesis Critical thinking in science Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Values: Critical thought + Empiricism

12. Foundations of Research 12 One model of the scientific process: Phenomenon Theory What empirical evidence will test the hypothesis? What must I measure or observe? Ensure evidence is unbiased & objective? o Replicable? o Converging studies? Hypothesis Methods / Data Critical thinking in science Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Values: Critical thought + Empiricism

13. Foundations of Research 13 Phenomenon Theory Active ; Actively seek new or better explanations… Skeptical ; Theories must be coherent and logical Hypotheses must be specific enough to be tested. Without valid empirical evidence all beliefs are tentative. New evidence can always overturn our theories or beliefs. Creative ; Every stage benefits from innovation. Hypothesis Methods / Data As critical thought, scientific process is: Critical thinking in science Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Values: Critical thought + Empiricism

14. Foundations of Research 14 Core components of science What is science? Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Science is public Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Science is public Methods Objective approaches Basic experimental design Specific research procedures Methods Objective approaches Basic experimental design Specific research procedures Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know? Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know?

15. Foundations of Research 15 Core components of science What is science? Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Science is public Content Empirical findings: Facts Ways of classifying nature Well supported theories Science is public Methods Objective approaches Basic experimental design Specific research procedures Methods Objective approaches Basic experimental design Specific research procedures Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know? Values: Critical thought + Empiricism Understand the Natural World Theory: How or Why? Evidence: How do you know?

16. Foundations of Research 16 Core components of science How do we address basic questions about how the natural world works? How do we state an issue as a research question? Phenomenon Theory Hypothesis Methods

17. Foundations of Research 17 Core components of science How can we address basic questions about the world? How do we ensure our research is ethical? We balance the cost or risks of research against its scientific benefits. We have developed common guidelines or ethical standards across areas of research.

18. Foundations of Research 18 Core components of science How can we address basic questions about the world? How do we ensure our research is ethical? How do we gather data that is reliable and valid? Two major streams: A.Observation /measurement Systematically assess phenomena without altering them B.Experiments Control Independent Variable, assess affect on Dependent Variable.

19. Foundations of Research 19 Core components of science How do we address basic questions about the world? How do we ensure our research is ethical? How do we gather data that is reliable and valid? Who or what do we study, and why? We must ensure that our sample well represents the population we hope to address. Population: historical events, people, brain cells… Sample: archival documents, research subjects, cell lines…

20. Foundations of Research 20 Core components of science How do we answer basic questions about the world? How do we ensure our research is ethical? How do we gather data that is reliable and valid? Who or what do we study, and why? How are statistics important to science? Quantitative studies: numerical data for statistical analysis. Qualitative research: text or other media. o Can be quantified. Statistical Reasoning rests on the normal distribution.

21. Foundations of Research 21 Core values of Science Critical thought is a central value in knowledge Active understanding and questioning Skepticism; seeking logical coherence and empirical evidence Creative seeking for alternative explanations or evidence. Science maps directly onto critical thought SUMMARY We actively seek better understanding of natural phenomena. Theory must be coherent and generate logical hypotheses. Hypotheses must be empirically tested; belief requires evidence Creativity is an integral part of each element of the scientific method.

22. Foundations of Research 22 Core values of Science Key constituents of scientific understanding Fact : Direct, public observation or description Hypothesis : Thought out / empirically grounded prediction that tests a theory Theory : Logical statement of how or why nature works Developed and tested over time Law ; Highly regular natural process that explains important scientific findings Amenable to change in the face of new data or theory SUMMARY

23. Foundations of Research 23 Click! A hypothesis is… A = An assumption we make about the world B = A way of explaining how something works. C = Important primarily to controlled experiments D = A specific prediction about the results of a study. E = A completely novel idea about an important phenomenon.

24. Foundations of Research 24 Click! A theory is… A = Mostly speculation. B = Rarely changeable. C = A coherent explanation of natural processes. D = Less important than data or findings E = Cannot be (very) creative – it must follow from other studies.

25. Foundations of Research 25 Click! The Copernican Revolution was mostly noted for: A = Making knowledge public rather than authority based. B = Mapping the stars. C = The law of gravitational force. D = The first systematic development of theory.

26. Foundations of Research 26 Click! A hypothesis… A = Can be useful but is not crucial to a scientific study B = Usually precedes the development of a theory C = Is more like a guess or a hunch D = Can be developed after we collect data and look at our findings E = Is the link between the theory and data.

27. Foundations of Research 27 Click! A scientific law… A = Describes but does not actually explain findings. B = Rarely has exceptions. C = Cannot be modified or changed. D = Typically is very specific, with narrow application. E = Answers a core question about nature; little further research is usually needed.

28. Foundations of Research 28 Click! Critical thinking does not involve... A = Being active in finding better explanations B = Careful attention to empirical evidence C = Innovation and creativity D = Finding a single source of reliable information. E = Skepticism; questioning how we know things.

29. Foundations of Research 29 Introduction to science, 1  What is science?  Beliefs v. facts  Science, anti-science, magical thought.  Where does our knowledge of the world come from? 

30. Foundations of Research 30 How do we know things? We should [not] open diplomatic relations with Cuba. 12 people died in the Charlie Hebdo attack in France. Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover. The earth is 4.5 billion years old. Belief or Opinion Empirical Statement or Fact How do we distinguish… from

31. Foundations of Research 31 How do we know things? Each of us has an intrinsic purpose that we must discover. The earth is about 3.5 billion years old. What research could you do on this statement? Opening diplomatic relations with Cuba is a great idea. Over 150,000 people have died in the Syrian conflict.

32. Foundations of Research 32 All ideas have some merit and should be considered equally. Let’s answer some belief & fact questions… using your iClickers  Most any idea is worthy of study.  Scientific acceptance of ideas is not egalitarian;  Ideas: coherent + empirical support. A = True B = I’m not sure C = False

33. Foundations of Research 33 Knowledge attitudes, 2 If a lot of people believe something there is probably something to that.  Science is not democratic ;  data “win”, not the majority of believers  Many foolish or dangerous ideas are accepted until countered by empirical evidence. A = True B = I’m not sure C = False

34. Foundations of Research 34  Intuition:  important source of hypotheses or theories  Describes emotions, not necessarily real world.  Emotionality & subjectivity not scientific until empirically tested. Knowledge attitudes, 3 I can just sense when something is true or false. A = True B = I’m not sure C = False

35. Foundations of Research 35 Knowledge attitudes, 4 Everyone is biased, even scientists, so why shouldn’t I just believe what makes sense to me? A = True B = I’m not sure C = False Every person has biases Science is not person based: …about methods, not people, …specifically works to lessen personal bias.

36. Foundations of Research 36 Some ideas are “better” than others. Science: core values  Is it logically coherent?  Is it supported by evidence?  Does it make sense with what is already known?

37. Foundations of Research 37 Some ideas are “better” than others. Science is based on methods and evidence, not people.  Objective methods are specifically designed to overcome our natural biases. Core values

38. Foundations of Research 38 Some ideas are “better” than others. Science is based on methods and evidence, not people. Evidence from the natural world trumps personal biases or beliefs. Core values  Evidence from the “real world” has the final say.  Not OK to “Cherry pick” confirmatory or self-serving evidence.

39. Foundations of Research 39 Some ideas are “better” than others. Science is based on methods and evidence, not people. Evidence from the natural world trumps personal biases or beliefs. Logic or rational thought are (generally) more important than intuition or emotions.  Is it logically coherent?  Is it supported by evidence?  Does it make sense with what is already known? Core values

40. Foundations of Research 40 The values of science & empiricism Critical thought How does it work? Theories: Coherent: internally consistent & clearly explains the phenomenon Articulate with what is known How do you know? What is the evidence for or against a hypothesis or theory? Focus on the natural world. Science: evidence & objective methods, not individual people or ideologies. Science is an open system: Our theories & knowledge base must accommodate new / different findings SUMMARY

41. Foundations of Research 41  What is science?  Beliefs v. facts  Science, anti-science, magical thought.  Where does our knowledge of the world come from? Introduction to science, 2 

42. Foundations of Research 42 Are we rational? Are people “rational”? Are our beliefs generally scientific? Irrational beliefs have increased in the U.S. in the 21 st Century

43. Foundations of Research 43 Beliefs… About 50% of Americans believe in ESP Despite consistent failures to demonstrate it scientifically.

44. Foundations of Research 44 Beliefs, 2… 37% of Americans believe in haunted houses (54% believe or not sure) % of people believe / not sure about haunted houses % of people who believe global warming is influenced by human activity.

45. Foundations of Research 45 Irrational beliefs A Washington Post overview is here. here The original study is here.here Americans in general harbor many irrational beliefs  70%: influence the world via positive thought.  M = 60%: positive thought changes world, Atlantis, Dreams tell the future, Hauntings.  52%: vaccines are safe.  ≈ 30% accept human-based climate change / evolution.  % who accept Big Bang theory = % believe in Bigfoot.

46. Foundations of Research 46 Why do we reject scientific explanations? When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Scientific explanations abstract & difficult; intuition easier / “feels better” Conformity pressure of popular opinion Misunderstanding of chance & coincidence; Spurious correlations We see correlations even in nonsense data Intuitive rather than logical interpretation

47. Foundations of Research 47 Example of (silly) spurious correlation. http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=2948http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=2948, 4/9/15 r =.87 EXAMPLE Basic (perceptual) fallacy; if B follows A, A must cause B.

48. Foundations of Research 48 Spurious correlations R =.95 r =.666 http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=359http://tylervigen.com/view_correlation?id=359, 4/9/15 EXAMPLE

49. Foundations of Research 49 3 rd variables in spurious correlations Spurious correlations …often a 3 rd variable actually causes both terms in the correlation. Shoe size and reading performance for elementary school children Age: Older children have larger shoe sizes and read better. Number of police officers and number of crimes (Glass & Hopkins, 1996) Population density: In highly dense areas, there are more police officers and more crimes. Number of storks sighted and the population of Oldenburg, Germany, over a six-year period (Box, Hunter, & Hunter, 1978) Time: Both variables were increasing over time. Correlation Cause EXAMPLE Age Population density Time

50. Foundations of Research 50 Interpreting correlations  What else could be going on? Most fat & cancer  wealthier, urbanized, industrialized. Less exercise / more prepared (“factory”) food consumption. Wealth and urbanization increase exposure to carcinogens other than fat? “Obvious” causal link is questionable / incomplete if it relies on correlational data only. FIGURE 3 | Association between fat intake and breast cancer. From: Diet and cancer — the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. S. Bingham & E. Riboli, Nature Reviews Cancer 4, 206-215 (March 2004). doi:10.1038/nrc1298, http://www.nature.com/nrc/journal/v4/n3/fig_tab/nrc1298_F3.html http://www.nature.com/nrc/journal/v4/n3/fig_tab/nrc1298_F3.html appears to cause cancer.Fat Total dietary fat intake (g day -1 ) Age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 people The chart makes this causal explanation visually compelling… The 3 rd variable problem.

51. Foundations of Research 51 Why do we reject scientific explanations? Why do people reject scientific explanations? When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Misunderstanding of chance and coincidence; Confirmatory bias: We notice, recall, over-weight info. that confirms our beliefs or ideologies. Emotionally we seek consistency… A thought or belief dissonant with evidence is uncomfortable; We may seek to reduce dissonance by seeking confirmatory information…

52. Foundations of Research 52 Why do we reject scientific explanations? Why do people reject scientific explanations? When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Misunderstanding of chance and coincidence; Confirmatory bias Emotional needs & “the will to believe”; Superstitions provide a sense of control over the world. We want to believe in ‘myths’ that make the world seem manageable (“The Secret”)

53. Foundations of Research 53 Intuition & Magical Thought Brain evolved toward snap judgments about causation: Leap to conclusions via fast emotional processing. Emotional needs distort perceptions before logic kicks in… Our need to feel in control can lead to imagine cause and effect when there really is none (…The Secret, “magic” foods or diets, rituals).  We experience emotions faster than we can think

54. Foundations of Research 54 Intuition & Magical Thought Brain evolved toward snap judgments about causation: Leap to conclusions via fast emotional processing. Emotional needs distort perceptions before logic kicks in… Our need to feel in control can lead to imagine cause and effect when there really is none (…The Secret, “magic” foods or diets, rituals).  A rational, empirical approach Takes more cognitive effort Can require us to suppress our intuitions or emotions

55. Foundations of Research 55 Why do we reject scientific explanations? Why do people reject scientific explanations? When they conflict with intuition or popular opinion. Misunderstanding of chance and coincidence; Confirmatory bias. Emotional needs & “the will to believe”; Cultural patterns (Intentional) Confusion of opinion with fact (Political pundits..). Uncritical media coverage of non-factual explanations.

56. Foundations of Research 56 Why do we reject scientific explanations? Cultural patterns (Intentional) Confusion of opinion with fact (Fox news..). Uncritical media coverage Magical thought woven into consumer products… The “secret” / mystical self-help. Useless “Miracle” products. Dietary supplements.

57. Foundations of Research 57 Sources of irrational beliefs Key terms: Illusionary correlation  Two events that coincide are not necessarily meaningfully “correlated”. Illusory causation  Correlation ≠ causality Social consensus  Beliefs are not necessarily ‘true’ because many people hold them. Confirmatory bias  We seek – or are more sensitive to – information that confirms our bias’ Affect-driven beliefs  Emotionality or wishful thinking drive may irrational beliefs. r =.666

58. Foundations of Research 58 Introduction to science, 3  Woman with book, Pablo Picasso.  What is science?  Beliefs v. facts  Science, anti-science, magical thought.  Where does our knowledge of the world come from?

59. Foundations of Research 59 How do we know things?  Authority / Tradition  Intuitions  Empiricism; direct experience  Rationalism / theory How do we know things?  Authority / Tradition  Intuitions  Empiricism; direct experience  Rationalism / theory Section Overview

60. Foundations of Research 60 Sources of knowledge Authority: “I believe what they tell me to” Credible / powerful people Institutions & traditions Culturally important texts: Bible, Quran…

61. Foundations of Research 61 Intuition: “I believe my Gut feelings” Emotionality or a “hunch” Authority: “I believe what they tell me to” Sources of knowledge, intuition

62. Foundations of Research 62 Intuition: “I believe my Gut feelings” Empiricism: “I believe what I can see” Simple sensation or perception Direct observation; data Authority: “I believe what they tell me to” Sources of knowledge, Empiricism

63. Foundations of Research 63 Intuition: “I believe my Gut feelings” Empiricism: “I believe what I can see” Authority: “I believe what they tell me to” Sources of knowledge, Rationalism Rationalism : “ I believe what makes sense.” Logical coherence Articulation with other ideas

64. Foundations of Research 64 Intuition: Emotionality or a “hunch” Empiricism: Simple sensation or perception Direct observation; data Authority: Credible / powerful people Important social institutions Sources of knowledge, Science Rationalism : Logical coherence Articulation with other ideas Most central to Science

65. Foundations of Research 65 Authority

66. Foundations of Research 66 Authority-based belief Key distinction: Authority Beliefs derived from experience or accumulated knowledge “Expertise” Designated by, e.g., Educational or other credentials Authoritarianism Beliefs derived institutional position Interpreter of ‘sacred texts’ Bible, Quran, prophet Ideological or political leader Political Talk show host…

67. Foundations of Research 67 Authority-based belief Key distinction: Authority Beliefs derived from experience or accumulated knowledge Authoritarianism Beliefs derived institutional position, ‘sacred text’, ideological leader Source of authority is typically evidence-based.  …derived from a history of studies in a field. Amenable to new or conflicting evidence. Source of authority is typically person-based.  …sacred text, ideologue… Rarely amenable to new or conflicting evidence. Strong leaders can change authoritarian systems; c.f. Pope Francis.

68. Foundations of Research 68 Authority-based belief… Provides a stable core of principles; knowledge & beliefs… People with extensive experience & knowledge have important insights. Can move a field beyond the data; visionaries, revolutionaries… What are some advantages of authority – based belief?

69. Foundations of Research 69 Authority-based belief… Disadvantages? Can be insensitive to proof or evidence Can be misused for financial / political ends… Highly susceptible to political bias  Can require evidence / science be corrupted, distorted or ignored.  Ignore or circumvent normal scientific procedures (e.g., Intelligent Design content in biology instruction).

70. Foundations of Research 70 Authority-based belief Psychoanalysis is based on the writings of key authorities rather than actual psychological evidence, but did contribute to psychology. E X A M P L E Christian “conversion therapies” continue to try and turn gay men straight, despite evidence that they are destructive.

71. Foundations of Research 71 2: Intuition, emotion, superstition Intuition

72. Foundations of Research 72 Intuition, emotion, superstition… Advantages ? Can provide emotional or personal insight Origin of novel hypotheses or theories Can move a field beyond the data Disadvantages ? Magical thinking: often explicitly non-empirical Emotion (e.g., fear) can outweigh rationality or evidence

73. Foundations of Research 73 Intuition Intuition can be invaluable to science. Werner Heisenberg, a key developer of quantum theory, wrote that his musical training helped him appreciate scientific theory. E X A M P L E “New age” therapies and products flourish because they satisfy our emotional wishes, not necessarily by doing anything…

74. Foundations of Research 74 3. Empiricism: Directly observing the natural world Empiricism

75. Foundations of Research 75 Empiricism or simple exposure Advantages? Grounds knowledge in “real world”. Confirm intuition by observation Makes knowledge public (e.g., Copernican revolution) Disadvantages / limitations? 1.Simple illusions / misperceptions / measurement error 2.Confirmatory bias 3.Oversensitive to emotional / perceptual salience 4.Spurious correlations 5.Anti-science use of naïve empiricism

76. Foundations of Research 76 Limitations to empiricism 1.Illusions 2.Confirmatory bias 3.Emotional salience 4.Spurious correlations 5.Naïve empiricism Why is it difficult for us to use empirical evidence in our decision making? Our perceptions of the world can be simply mistaken

77. Foundations of Research 77 Limits of empiricism: 1. Simple illusions Akiyoshi KITAOKA, Psychology, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan http://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/~akitaoka/index-e.html

78. Foundations of Research 78 How many Fs do you see in this passage? FINISHED FILES ARE THE RE- SULT OF YEARS OF SCIENTIF- IC STUDY COMBINED WITH THE EXPERIENCE OF YEARS. A = 2 B = 3 C = 4 D = 5 E = 6

79. Foundations of Research 79 Limitations to empiricism: Confirmatory Bias 1.Illusions 2.Confirmatory bias 3.Emotional salience 4.Spurious correlations 5.Naïve empiricism Why is it difficult for us to use empirical evidence in our decision making? Our perceptions are often biased by what we expect to see…

80. Foundations of Research 80 Limits of empiricism: 2. Confirmatory bias Cops and doughnuts Cop? = memorability subjective co- occurrence matrix. Doughnut? YesNo Yes No

81. Foundations of Research 81 Limitations to empiricism; Emotional Salience 1.Illusions 2.Confirmatory bias 3.Emotional salience 4.Spurious correlations 5.Naïve empiricism Why is it difficult for us to use empirical evidence in our decision making? Our memories of what we see can be biased by emotions or simple salience (we remember dramatic events better…)

82. Foundations of Research 82 Limits of empiricism: 3. Emotional Salience Perceptually salient Address our emotional needs Salience effects: Which kills more women, breast cancer or cardiovascular disease? Fear arousal: Is the deficit a genuinely serious economic issue? Conspiracy theories: Could Kennedy have been killed by a single person? (law of effect) Fear based attitude change: Democracy is threatened by phony voters  we need to make voting much more difficult… Salience effects: Which kills more women, breast cancer or cardiovascular disease? Fear arousal: Is the deficit a genuinely serious economic issue? Conspiracy theories: Could Kennedy have been killed by a single person? (law of effect) Fear based attitude change: Democracy is threatened by phony voters  we need to make voting much more difficult… We pay attention to & remember stimuli that are:

83. Foundations of Research 83 Limitations to empiricism; Spurious correlations 1.Illusions 2.Confirmatory bias 3.Emotional salience 4.Spurious correlations 5.Naïve empiricism Why is it difficult for us to use empirical evidence in our decision making? We can easily think one event caused the other just because they co-occur [see: Magical Thought]

84. Foundations of Research 84 4. Spurious (naïve empirical) correlations: The Japanese eat very little fat and suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. The French eat a lot of fat and also suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. The Japanese drink very little red wine and suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. The Italians drink lots of red wine and suffer fewer heart attacks than the British or Americans. Conclusion: Eat & drink what you like. It's speaking English that kills you.

85. Foundations of Research 85 Limitations to empiricism 1.Illusions 2.Confirmatory bias 3.Emotional salience 4.Spurious correlations 5.Naïve empiricism Why is it difficult for us to use empirical evidence in our decision making? “ Mindless” or Naïve Empiricism can reflect anti-scientific bias I won’t believe it unless I can directly see it myself… “ Mindless” or Naïve Empiricism can reflect anti-scientific bias I won’t believe it unless I can directly see it myself…

86. Foundations of Research 86 Limits to empiricism: 5. Anti-science & naïve empiricism The sun obviously goes around the earth; humans must be the center of the universe. We had a record cold winter; global warming must be a myth. The “big bang” makes no sense; we clearly are not moving in space. We cannot “see” things evolving The world just looks “designed” Evolution must be false

87. Foundations of Research 87 5. Anti-science & naïve empiricism Naïve Empiricism Science asks “why?”, not simply “what?”  Testing hypotheses and developing theories is more important than raw data  Empirical observations must be put into a larger, theoretical context  We cannot directly “see” even the most basic of scientific principles or processs (e.g., gravity…).

88. Foundations of Research 88 Theory / Rationalism

89. Foundations of Research 89 Advantages / purpose? theories. Develop coherent principles or theories. Articulate hypothetical constructs that underlie behavior. Make our conclusions correspond to other knowledge Disadvantages? Do we show bias in the data we use to support the theory? Are our theories influenced by ideological bias or authority-based belief systems? Rationalism

90. Foundations of Research 90 Rationalism Science has advanced via clear and strong theories, that.. Organize our understanding of a field Guide us toward new hypotheses and research questions Summarize empirical data E X A M P L E  The theory of evolution  Social – cognitive theories in psychology  Basic learning theory

91. Foundations of Research 91 How do we “Know” something? Science: Integration of.. Rationalism Theory Hypothesis Empiricism Objective observation Control Operational definitions Replication Developing theories – explanations of how or why behavior works – is a core purpose of research. Empirical data helps us: describe the world test hypotheses & develop theory. Empirical data helps us: describe the world test hypotheses & develop theory.

92. Foundations of Research 92 How do we know things, review 1 An important source of novel hypotheses, theories or scientific approaches A = Authority B = Intuition C = Empiricism D = Rationalism

93. Foundations of Research 93 How do we know things, review 2 Grounds knowledge in “real” world, provides an important hypothesis-testing perspective A = Authority B = Intuition C = Empiricism D = Rationalism

94. Foundations of Research 94 How do we know things, review 3 Provides stable, core principles or beliefs, but can limit empirical evidence or alternative views A = Authority B = Intuition C = Empiricism D = Rationalism

95. Foundations of Research 95 How do we know things, review 4 Central purpose of science: coherent explanation of “why” or “how” nature works. A = Authority B = Intuition C = Empiricism D = Rationalism & theory

96. Foundations of Research 96 Sources of knowledge Multiple cognitive & emotional biases impede empiricism:  Illusions  Confirmatory bias  Emotional salience  Spurious correlations  Naïve empiricism SUMMARY Stable beliefs. Biased / limiting?  Authority  Intuition  Empiricism  Rationalism Important source of ideas. Rational? Points us toward the Natural World. We strive to explain nature; why / how.

97. Foundations of Research 97 Glossary Theory Proposition linking two or more (psychological) processes. Addresses “how” or “why” a natural process works. Hypothesis Specific, theory-based prediction about the effect of one variable on another, or of the results of a measurement or observational study. Tests the theory. Operational Definition Specific procedures specifying how a variable will be modified or measured. Quasi-Experiment Experimental design, where researcher does not have complete control over the Independent Variable, Dependent Variable, or Experimental Procedures. Replication Repeating a study in a different research setting and/or by using different research methods. SUMMARY