1. Understanding Risk in Secondary Science and Mathematics Dave Pratt, Ralph Levinson, Phillip Kent, & Cristina Yogui Department of Geography, Enterprise, Mathematics and Science (GEMS), Institute of Education TURS project seminar for IOE 27 November 2008

2. Outline OVERALL AIM: This is a participatory seminar where your inputs will contribute to shaping the project’s design thinking (1)Introduction to the TURS project (2)Discussion of current curriculum and classroom practice (3)A decision-making scenario to probe into the nature of risk (4)General discussion of the task and points from the research literature

3. The TURS Project: Promoting Teachers’ Understanding of Risk in Socio-Scientific Issues September 2008 – February 2010 (18 months) Funded by the Wellcome Trust www.RISKatIOE.org

4. Key project aim Work with maths and science teachers to enhance the teaching of risk by: (1)developing pedagogical principles (2)developing software tools/simulations that support reflection, sharing and perturbation of teachers’ knowledge about the teaching and learning of risk.

5. Significance of this research Teaching of socio-scientific issues and risk is already established in PSHE/Citizenship, and Science (to a limited extent) What is new about our research?? We want to bring the quantitative/mathematical perspective together with the socio-scientific, through teachers' inter-disciplinary working, and novel software designs

6. Iterative (co)design We aim to capture teachers’ knowledge about risk and about teaching and learning of risk, and the processes of how these change, through the iterative design of software

7. Inter-disciplinary working We are initially working with a small group of teachers (about 10), formed of pairs of mathematics and science specialists in the same schools.

8. Inter-disciplinary potentials Early impressions: Most science teachers are teaching about risk as part of socio-scientific issues, in unquantified ways For most mathematics teachers, risk is a topic on the horizon of the revised National Curriculum which has not yet had impact on practice. We are interested in the scope for teachers’ inter- disciplinary working to develop quantified approaches to risk that bring mutual benefits to the teaching of both subjects.

9. The idea of risk Risk is a contested, even controversial concept. How is this reflected in school curricula and classroom practice? How should it be reflected in school curricula and classroom practice?

10. Current curriculum, practices and problems

11. N.C. Science (KS4) Programme of study KS4 Science: How science works Data, evidence, theories and explanations Applications and implications of science Pupils should be taught: –about the use of contemporary scientific and technological developments and their benefits, drawbacks and risks. –To consider how and why decisions about science and technology are made, include those that raise ethical issues, and about the social, economic and environmental effects of such decisions –How uncertainties in scientific knowledge and scientific ideas change over time and about the role of the scientific community in validating these changes.

12. GCSE “21 st Century Science” exam specification (OCR) Source: OCR GCSE Science Specification

13. N.C. Citizenship (KS4) Citizenship encourages students to take an interest in topical and controversial issues and to engage in discussion and debate. They learn to take part in decision-making and different forms of action. Topical and controversial issues and problems: Political, social and ethical issues and problems can be sensitive and can lead to disagreement. They should not be avoided, but need to be handled so that students develop skills in discussing and debating citizenship issues and considering points of view that are not necessarily their own. Students should learn about the need to balance competing and conflicting demands and understand that in a democracy not everyone gets what they want. They should also learn that justice can mean treating everyone the same or treating people differently.

14. N.C. PSHE (KS3 & 4) Risk - Understanding risk in both positive and negative terms. - Understanding the need to manage risk in the context of financial and career choices. - Taking risks and learning from mistakes. …Key Stage 4 (same as KS3 but also) - risk and reward, and how money can make money through savings, investment and trade - assess, undertake and manage risk Skills for enterprise and employability: These include: * functional skills of English, mathematics and ICT * working with others, independent enquiry, self-management, innovation and creativity * problem-solving * risk-taking and risk management, reflective thinking * personal financial management, budgeting and accounts management.

15. N.C. Programme of study KS4 Mathematics The importance of mathematics: Mathematics equips students with uniquely powerful ways to describe, analyse and change the world…students who are functional in mathematics and financially capable are able to think independently in applied and abstract ways, can reason, solve problems and assess risk. 1.Key concepts… Applying suitable mathematics: This requires fluency and confidence in a range of mathematical techniques and processes that can be applied in a widening range of familiar and unfamiliar contexts, including managing money, assessing risk, problem-solving and decision-making. 3.3 Statistics… Probabilities: This includes applying ideas of probability and risk to gambling, safety issues and the financial services sector, and simulations using ICT to represent a probability experiment, such as rolling two dice and adding the scores. [SOURCE: KS4 Maths Programme of Study, QCA, 2008] The Bowland Mathematics Key Stage 3 resources have some suggestive examples of learning activities involving risk and probability: www.bowlandmaths.org.ukwww.bowlandmaths.org.uk

16. GROUP DISCUSSION: Questions Ought ‘risk’ as a concept to be part of these curricula? If yes, is it conceptualised in an appropriate form? If no, why not?

17. Quantifying Risk Risk is about the decision-making of individuals and organisations, making judgements in the face of uncertainty

18. Decision Task: School adventure playground

19. Stack the cards together to quantify the total risks and total benefits, then compare the two stacks Decision Task: School adventure playground

20. Figure: A simplified illustration of the problem facing play providers. On the one hand, all the good things about play are hard to measure, whereas the bad things - accidents, costs, litigation - can be measured by science and other quantitative tools and are all too real. Faced with this situation, and children’s lack of political muscle, the tendency will be for benefits to be undervalued and play provision to lose out. [Source: Ball, D. J. (2002). Playgrounds: Risks, benefits and choices. Sudbury, UK: HSE Press.]

21. Some data Government recommendation for childrens’ health (anti- obesity campaign): 1 hour of vigorous activity every day The estimated number of fatal accidents for children in UK playgrounds, due to playground equipment, is 0.3 per year (1 fatality per 3 or 4 years) [Ball 2002, based on 1990s data] The estimated rate of major accidents in playgrounds is 5 per 100,000 hours of participation – compared with 130 for football, 90 for hockey, and 40 for cricket; only golf, bowls, table tennis and snooker have lower rates! [Ball, 2002]

22. Discussion points To what extent are the issues of risk that arose general or tied to particularities of the playground context? ‘Perceived’ risks and ‘Actual’ risks

23. ‘Actual’ (‘Scientific’) risk (the experts) and ‘Perceived’ risk (the public) Experts and ‘the public’: Define risk differently Are talking different languages Are solving different problems See the facts differently ( Eijkelhof, H. M. C. (1990). Radiation and risk in physics education (PhD thesis, Utrecht University). Utrecht: Rijksuniversiteit Utrecht. Page 150 ) If politics is the art of the possible, research is the art of the soluble… Good scientists study the most important problems they think they can solve. It is, after all, their professional business to solve problems, not merely to grapple with them. (Peter Medawar, quoted in Adams 2005) Risk is a word that refers to the future. It has no objective existence. The future exists only in the imagination. There are some risks for which science can provide useful guidance to the imagination… (Adams, 2005)

24. ‘Actual’ (‘Scientific’) risk (the experts) and ‘Perceived’ risk (the public) Public education about radiation and nuclear power is not a morally neutral enterprise, and differences between the public and the experts [can be attributed to] differences in moral beliefs. Education means trading in values as much as trading in facts. ( Eijkelhof, 1990, p. 153 – citing Faden, 1983 ) There is wisdom as well as error in public attitudes and perceptions. Lay-people sometimes lack certain information about hazards. However their basic conceptualisation of risk is much richer than that of the experts and reflects legitimate concerns that are typically omitted from expert risk assessments. … Each side, expert and public, has something valid to contribute. Each side must respect the insights and intelligence of the other. ( Slovic, P. (1986). Informing and educating the public about risk. Risk Analysis 6 (4), 403-415. Reprinted in: Slovic, P. (2000). The Perception of Risk. London and Sterling, VA: Earthscan Publications Ltd. )

25. Models and modelling of risk Bringing together quantified and qualitative approaches… Personal models, Formal models Decision-making scenarios