1. www.tyndall.manchester.ac.uk Dr John Broderick, KT Fellow www.energy.manchester.ac.uk Shale gas in a low carbon future. Golden age or gilded cage?

2. “Gas is green” rhetoric “As the UK moves to low carbon and renewable energy sources, natural gas will be an important transition fuel.” Cuadrilla Resources 2012, About natural gas, emphasis addedAbout natural gas “We see natural gas as a key part of the lower-carbon economy as it is a plentiful resource that releases less CO2 than other fossil fuels when burned.” BP 2012, Our programme of action on climate change, emphasis addedOur programme of action on climate change

3. No climate benefit if shale gas emissions are additional

4. Year Billion tonnes CO 2 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

5. Year Billion tonnes CO 2 Rio Earth Summit UN Climate change panel established Copenhagen Accord Rio + 20 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

6. Year Billion tonnes CO 2 Global economic downturn … yet emissions have continued to rise (~6% in 2010, ~3% 2011 & 12) Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

7. Year Billion tonnes CO 2 … so what of future emissions? Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

8. Year Billion tonnes CO 2 Energy system design lives (lock-in)  Supply technologies 25-50 year  Large scale infrastructures  Built environment  Aircraft and ships ~30 years Financial commitments to fossil fuel investments 30-100 years Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

9. Year Billion tonnes CO 2 ~3000GtCO 2 for 2000-2050 ~5000GtCO 2 for 2000-2100 … i.e. a 4 ° C – 6 ° C rise between 2050 & 2100 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement) … and assuming current mitigation plans

10. Year Billion tonnes CO 2 Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

11. Year Billion tonnes CO 2 … building low/zero carbon energy supply needs to begin now Too early for supply DemandDemand Supply & demand Global emission of fossil fuel CO2 (inc. cement)

12. Two impossible futures A radical change in our economies or... “When I look at this [CO 2 ] data, the trend is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.” Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist 4ºC global mean surface temperature implies 5ºC - 6ºC global land mean … & likely increase ºC on the hottest days of: 6ºC - 8ºC in China 8ºC - 10ºC in Central Europe 10ºC -12ºC in New York

13. info.energy@manchester.ac.ukwww.energy.manchester.ac.uk john.broderick@manchester.ac.uk www.tyndall.manchester.ac.uk

14. “Far from running out of fossil fuels, we have more than enough to fry the planet” – Dieter Helm (2012) Source: IEA, WEO 2012 ©OECD/IEA 2012 Budget 2012-2035 Budget 2012-2050 Current Proved Fossil Reserves From: D. Hawkins, NRDC, Can CCS Help Protect the Climate?, Nov 2012

15. Financial Risk: Unburnable Carbon A precautionary approach means only 20% of total fossil fuel reserves can be burnt to 2050. As a result the global economy already faces the prospect of assets becoming stranded, with the problem only likely to get worse if current investment trends continue - in effect, a carbon bubble. James Leaton, Carbon Tracker...this report shows that even a scenario for [CCS] deployment that is currently considered optimistic would only make a marginal difference to the amount of fossil fuels that can be consumed by 2050. Lord Stern, Foreword

16. Relative GHG Intensity  JISEA study (Logan et al 2012) echoed Weber et al (2012) »Indistinguishable GHG footprint if well managed. »Upstream emissions potentially substantial »Energy systems likely more significant

17. Growth 3.5% p.a Peak 2025 Reduction 7% p.a. (2x Stern!) Anderson-Bows: 2°C budget, CO 2 only http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html?sid=423cdf2d-23a1-4170-b4b6-74e87f173156 Budget premised on 37% chance of exceeding 2°C GMT rise

18. Anderson-Bows: 2°C budget, CO 2 only http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html?sid=423cdf2d-23a1-4170-b4b6-74e87f173156 Budget premised on 37% chance of exceeding 2°C GMT rise

19. Peak ~2010 Reduction ∞ % p.a. Anderson-Bows: 2°C budget, CO 2 only http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/20.full.pdf+html?sid=423cdf2d-23a1-4170-b4b6-74e87f173156 Budget premised on 37% chance of exceeding 2°C GMT rise