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® ® OppenheimerFunds Economic & Financial Market Outlook Economic & Financial Market Outlook Jerry Webman, Ph.D, CFA Senior Vice President Chief Economist.

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Presentation on theme: "® ® OppenheimerFunds Economic & Financial Market Outlook Economic & Financial Market Outlook Jerry Webman, Ph.D, CFA Senior Vice President Chief Economist."— Presentation transcript:

1 ® ® OppenheimerFunds Economic & Financial Market Outlook Economic & Financial Market Outlook Jerry Webman, Ph.D, CFA Senior Vice President Chief Economist Jerry Webman, Ph.D, CFA Senior Vice President Chief Economist Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. Two World Financial Center, 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008 © Copyright 2009 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved.

2 Review ’09 Outlook Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Themes for 2H10 & Beyond What It Means for Investors Review ’09 Outlook Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Themes for 2H10 & Beyond What It Means for Investors Agenda Page 2

3 ® ® Page 3 Main Idea 2009 2009: A focus on economic stabilization, not a return to business as usual Only modest improvements in economic conditions necessary to generate returns 2009: A focus on economic stabilization, not a return to business as usual Only modest improvements in economic conditions necessary to generate returns

4 ®® Page 4 Main Idea 2009 Only modest improvements in economic conditions necessary to generate returns S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 Index is a broad-based stock index including reinvestment of dividends and is widely regarded as an indicator of domestic stock market performance. The Index is unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any investment. Source of table data: Bloomberg as of July 7, 2009. Manufacturing Contraction Worst Since 1980 Consumer Borrowing Falls Record $7.9B Consumer Spending Records Unprecedented 6 th Monthly Decline Housing Starts Slump To Record Low Jobless Claims Match 26-Year High Geithner Delays Bank Rescue Announcement Jobless Claims Highest on Record Congress Approves Stimulus Plan Consumer Confidence Lowest on Record GE Div Cut Citi Rescue Citigroup Profitable Trade Deficit Narrows to 6-Year Low Housing Starts Unexpectedly Increase Fed Quantitative Easing Begins Durable Goods Orders Rise Manufacturing Shrinks At Slower Pace Beige Book Shows Contraction Slowing Consumer Sentiment Rises LEI Signal Recession To End in 2H09 Jobless Claims Fall Productivity Rises Existing Home Sales Rise Construction Climbs Job Losses Slow Consumer Sentiment Rises Existing Home Sales Rise Trade Deficit Narrows GS and JPM Earnings Beat Expectations Home Price Smallest Drop in 10 Months

5 ®® Page 5 ’09 Outlook Not a Return to Business as Usual Source of table data: Bloomberg as of July 28, 2009. S&P 500 Index

6 Review ’09 Outlook Near-Term (3 – 12 Months) Themes for 2H10 & Beyond What It Means for Investors Review ’09 Outlook Near-Term (3 – 12 Months) Themes for 2H10 & Beyond What It Means for Investors Agenda Page 6

7 ®® Page 7 Near Term (3 – 12 Months) The Recession Is Over! Near Term (3 – 12 Months) The Recession Is Over! Source of chart data: Conference Board as of June 30, 2009 Shaded Areas Represent Recessions Conference Board Index of Leading Economic Indicators (3-Month Percent Change) Conference Board Index of Leading Economic Indicators (3-Month Percent Change)

8 ®® Page 8 Near Term (3 – 12 Months) The Recession Is Over! Near Term (3 – 12 Months) The Recession Is Over! 1.Credit Crunch Less Oppressive 2.Housing Stabilizing 3.Pent-up Demand / Inventory Restocking 4.Stimulus Plan 1.Credit Crunch Less Oppressive 2.Housing Stabilizing 3.Pent-up Demand / Inventory Restocking 4.Stimulus Plan

9 ®® Page 9 Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Credit Crunch Less Oppressive Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Credit Crunch Less Oppressive TED Spread 3-month LIBOR minus 3-month T-bills TED Spread 3-month LIBOR minus 3-month T-bills bps 30-Year AAA-rated General Obligation Municipal Rate As a Percentage of 30-Year U.S. Treasury Rate 30-Year AAA-rated General Obligation Municipal Rate As a Percentage of 30-Year U.S. Treasury Rate Barclays Capital High Yield Corporate Bond Index Option Adjusted Spread Barclays Capital High Yield Corporate Bond Index Option Adjusted Spread bps 1. Source of chart data: Bloomberg as of 7/29/09. 2. Source of chart data: CTRB Municipal Market Advisors, as of 7/29/09. 3. Source of chart data: Barclay’s Capital as of 7/29/09.

10 ®® Page 10 Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Housing Stabilizing Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Housing Stabilizing Source of chart data: S&P/Case-Shiller as of 5/31/09. S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index M/M Percent Change First Positive Reading in 34 Months

11 ®® Page 11 Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Pent Up Demand Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Pent Up Demand U.S. Domestic Auto Sales Annualized Divided by Number of U.S. Households U.S. Domestic Auto Sales Annualized Divided by Number of U.S. Households Source of chart data: U.S. Census Bureau and Bloomberg as of June 30, 2009. Average

12 ®® Page 12 Near Term (3 – 12 Months) New Orders Support Inventory Restocking Near Term (3 – 12 Months) New Orders Support Inventory Restocking Source of chart data: Institute for Supply Management as of June 30, 2009. Shaded Areas Represent Recessions ISM New Orders / Inventories

13 ®® Page 13 Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Stimulus Plan Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Stimulus Plan Source of chart data: Recovery.gov as of 7/17/09. Planned 2009 Outlays

14 ®® Page 14 Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Stock Market Has Typically Risen After Recession Ends Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Stock Market Has Typically Risen After Recession Ends % Change % Change Recession End6-months Later12-Months Later October 31, 1949+9.91%+21.20% May 28, 1954+18.33+29.94 April 30, 1958+16.51+32.71 February 28, 1961+6.48+10.66 November 30, 1970+14.91+7.12 March 31, 1975+3.39+23.38 July 31, 1980+6.48+7.60 November 30, 1982+17.22+20.21 March 28, 1991+3.00+8.70 November 30, 2001–8.67–17.98 Mean+8.76%+14.35% As of 12/31/08. Source of chart data: Ned Davis Research. Historical performance of indices is shown for illustrative purposes only and is not intended to predict or depict the performance of any particular investment. Indices are unmanaged, include reinvested income (but not transaction costs or taxes) and cannot be purchased directly by investors. The above chart shows 12-month performance after recessions ending October 1949, May 1954, April 1958, February 1961, November 1970, March 1975, July 1980, November 1982, May 1991 and November 2001. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

15 ®® Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Domestic Stocks Near Fair Value Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Domestic Stocks Near Fair Value Page 15 Average S&P 500 Index Median Price to Earnings Ratio 12-Month Trailing S&P 500 Index Median Price to Earnings Ratio 12-Month Trailing Source of chart data: Ned Davis Research as of 6/30/09.

16 Review ’09 Outlook Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Themes for 2H10 & Beyond What It Means for Investors Review ’09 Outlook Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Themes for 2H10 & Beyond What It Means for Investors Agenda Page 16

17 ® ® Page 17 2H10 & Beyond Themes 2H10 & Beyond Themes 1.Deleveraging 2.Debt 3.Demographics 1.Deleveraging 2.Debt 3.Demographics

18 ® ® Page 18 2H10 & Beyond Deleveraging 2H10 & Beyond Deleveraging

19 ®® Page 19 2H10 & Beyond: Deleveraging Remember This? 2H10 & Beyond: Deleveraging Remember This? Banks Write-Down Assets Banks Write-Down Assets Banks Call Credit Lines Borrowers Sell to Meet Margin Calls Borrowers Sell to Meet Margin Calls Asset Prices Decline Banks Tighten Credit Foreclosures/DelinquenciesRiseForeclosures/DelinquenciesRise Businesses Halt Expansion Plans Unemployment Mounts

20 ®® Page 20 2H10 & Beyond: Deleveraging Banks Sit on Reserves for a Reason 2H10 & Beyond: Deleveraging Banks Sit on Reserves for a Reason Reserves January 2008$1.64 Billion February 20081.73 March 20082.97 April 20081.85 May 20082.01 June 20082.27 July 20081.92 August 20081.97 September 200860.05 Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions Reserves October 2008$267.90 Billion November 2008559.04 December 2008767.40 January 2009798.23 February 2009643.49 March 2009724.63 April 2009824.38 May 2009844.10 June 2009751.38 Source of chart data: Federal Reserve Board as of 6/30/09.

21 ®® Page 21 2H10 & Beyond: Deleveraging Consumer Savings 2H10 & Beyond: Deleveraging Consumer Savings Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income (6-month Moving Average) Personal Savings as a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income (6-month Moving Average) Source of chart data: Bureau of Economic Analysis, as of May 31, 2009. U.S. Savings Rate

22 ® ® Page 22 2H10 & Beyond: Debt 2H10 & Beyond: Debt

23 ®® Page 23 2H10 & Beyond: Debt Public Debt 2H10 & Beyond: Debt Public Debt Source of chart data: U.S. Treasury, as of March 31, 2009. U.S. Treasury Federal Budget Deficit as a Percentage of Nominal GDP U.S. Treasury Federal Budget Deficit as a Percentage of Nominal GDP Surplus Deficit

24 ®® Page 24 2H10 & Beyond: Debt Private Debt 2H10 & Beyond: Debt Private Debt Source of data: Federal Reserve Board as of March 31, 2009. U.S. Household Debt As a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income U.S. Household Debt As a Percentage of Disposable Personal Income Average

25 ® ® Page 25 2H10 & Beyond: Demographics 2H10 & Beyond: Demographics

26 ®® Page 26 2H10 & Beyond: Demographics 2H10 & Beyond: Demographics Population by Age: 2010 Forecast Percent of Total Population Population by Age: 2010 Forecast Percent of Total Population Source of chart data: United Nations Population Estimates as of 12/31/08. United States Brazil Japan India

27 Review ’09 Outlook Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Themes for 2H10 & Beyond What It Means for Investors Review ’09 Outlook Near Term (3 – 12 Months) Themes for 2H10 & Beyond What It Means for Investors Agenda Page 27

28 ®® Page 28 What It Means for Investors 1.Don’t Buy the Index 2.Cash Flow 3.Tax Shelters 4.Non-dollar Denominated Assets 5.Decoupling 2.0 1.Don’t Buy the Index 2.Cash Flow 3.Tax Shelters 4.Non-dollar Denominated Assets 5.Decoupling 2.0

29 ®® Page 29 What It Means for Investors: Don’t Buy the Index What It Means for Investors: Don’t Buy the Index S&P 500 Net Earnings December 31, 2006 Source of chart data: FactSet December 31,2006. Chart is for illustrative purposes detailing that buying an index fund could potentially entail greater than intended exposure to one particular sector.

30 ®® Page 30 What It Means for Investors: Dividends and Cash Flow What It Means for Investors: Dividends and Cash Flow Source of chart data: Ned Davis Research, as of June 30, 2009. YTD as of 6/30/2009

31 ®® Page 31 What It Means for Investors: Cash Flow What It Means for Investors: Cash Flow Source of chart data: Credit Suisse First Boston as of June 30, 2009 Bank Loans CSFB Leverage Loan Index Average Price CSFB Leverage Loan Index -0.39 10-Year U.S. Treasury Correlation (10-years)

32 ®® Page 32 What It Means for Investors: Tax Shelters What It Means for Investors: Tax Shelters Source of chart data: BarCap, as of June 30, 2009. Yield Spreads BBB Muni vs. 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Spreads BBB Muni vs. 30-Year U.S. Treasury Basis Points

33 ®® Page 33 What It Means for Investors: Non-dollar Denominated Assets What It Means for Investors: Non-dollar Denominated Assets Source of chart data: Bloomberg, as of July 29, 2009. 5-Year Brazil Government Bond Yield Minus 5-Year U.S. Treasury Yield 5-Year Brazil Government Bond Yield Minus 5-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Basis Points

34 ®® Page 34 What It Means for Investors: Decoupling 2.0 What It Means for Investors: Decoupling 2.0 The mention of specific companies does not constitute a recommendation on behalf of OppenheimerFunds, Inc.

35 ®® Page 35 Summary Worst recession in eight decades is over Grinding recovery in U.S. Secular growth forces have changed Any investment returns will come from multiple sources Worst recession in eight decades is over Grinding recovery in U.S. Secular growth forces have changed Any investment returns will come from multiple sources

36 ®® Page 36 Main Idea It’s different this time (and harder) There are opportunities to make money It’s a great time for active management It’s different this time (and harder) There are opportunities to make money It’s a great time for active management

37 ®® Page 37 Next Steps Beware...The trend is a fickle friend Generate cash flow Hedge against U.S. dollar weakness Watch out for taxes Focus on growth opportunities around the globe Beware...The trend is a fickle friend Generate cash flow Hedge against U.S. dollar weakness Watch out for taxes Focus on growth opportunities around the globe

38 ® ® Page 38 Thank You! It is important to remember that investing in small cap foreign securities involves additional expenses and special risks, such as currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and political and economic factors. Investments in emerging and developing markets may be especially volatile. Fixed income investing entails credit risks and interest rate risks. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and a Fund’s share prices can fall. Growth and technology investments may be especially volatile. Diversification does not guarantee profit nor protect against loss. These views represent the opinions of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. and are not intended to predict or depict performance of any investment. These views are as of the open of business on August 6, 2009 and are subject to change based on subsequent developments. Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before investing in any of the Oppenheimer funds, investors should carefully consider a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Fund prospectuses contain this and other information about the funds, and may be obtained by asking your financial advisor, visiting our website at www.oppenheimerfunds.com or calling us at 1.800.525.7048. Read prospectuses carefully before investing. Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. Two World Financial Center, 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008 ©Copyright 2009 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved. JGK-2-6-8/09 August 6, 2009 It is important to remember that investing in small cap foreign securities involves additional expenses and special risks, such as currency fluctuations, foreign taxes and political and economic factors. Investments in emerging and developing markets may be especially volatile. Fixed income investing entails credit risks and interest rate risks. When interest rates rise, bond prices generally fall, and a Fund’s share prices can fall. Growth and technology investments may be especially volatile. Diversification does not guarantee profit nor protect against loss. These views represent the opinions of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. and are not intended to predict or depict performance of any investment. These views are as of the open of business on August 6, 2009 and are subject to change based on subsequent developments. Shares of Oppenheimer funds are not deposits or obligations of any bank, are not guaranteed by any bank, are not insured by the FDIC or any other agency, and involve investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. Before investing in any of the Oppenheimer funds, investors should carefully consider a fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Fund prospectuses contain this and other information about the funds, and may be obtained by asking your financial advisor, visiting our website at www.oppenheimerfunds.com or calling us at 1.800.525.7048. Read prospectuses carefully before investing. Oppenheimer funds are distributed by OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. Two World Financial Center, 225 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10281-1008 ©Copyright 2009 OppenheimerFunds Distributor, Inc. All rights reserved. JGK-2-6-8/09 August 6, 2009


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