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Investing in a Volatile Market AFN45598. Agenda Today’s market environment Is this time different? Learning from the past Gauging volatility Investing.

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Presentation on theme: "Investing in a Volatile Market AFN45598. Agenda Today’s market environment Is this time different? Learning from the past Gauging volatility Investing."— Presentation transcript:

1 Investing in a Volatile Market AFN45598

2 Agenda Today’s market environment Is this time different? Learning from the past Gauging volatility Investing strategies in a volatile market Looking ahead

3 RMS External Wholesalers The Recent Exceptional Market Environment Source: Standard & Poor’s; based on the closing price of the S&P 500 index from September 1, 2007, through December 31, 2012.

4 Behind the Bear Bursting real estate bubble Subprime crisis Institutional bankruptcies and bailouts Economic slump Growing risk aversion of banks Changing consumer attitudes Changing demographics

5 Is This Time Different? Recent Bear*1970’s Bear1930’s Bear Japan's "Lost Decade" Drop in Market Value (peak to trough) 57%48%86%80% Duration17 months*19 months39 months161 months Annualized Real GDP Growth -0.70%1.5%-9.4%1.5% Recession/Depression Duration 16 months*16 months43 monthsOver 12 years Sources: Standard & Poor’s; Bureau of Economic Analysis; International Monetary Fund; Economic Planning Agency (Japan); National Bureau of Economic Research. GDP data is based on quarterly data for the most recent bear market and the 1970’s bear market; it is based on annual data otherwise. Periods of economic contraction do not exactly coincide with bear markets.

6 Learning From the Past: Bear Markets Since 1950 Source: Standard & Poor’s. For the period from January 1, 1950, through December 31, 2012. Stocks are represented by the daily closing price of the Standard & Poor's 500. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000144)

7 Learning From the Past: Stock Markets and Economic Contractions Source: Standard & Poor’s. For the period from January 1, 1950, through December 31, 2012. U.S. stocks are represented by Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 Stocks, an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Economic contractions are as defined by the National Bureau for Economic Research. (CS000228)

8 Learning From the Past: Conclusions Economic cycles don’t tell the whole story Every bear is unique Fundamental investing concepts and strategies still apply

9 Gauging Volatility: Standard Deviation S&P 500 Standard Deviation — 1959-2012 Source: Standard & Poor's. Represents the annualized monthly standard deviation of the total returns of the S&P 500 index for rolling 10-year periods from January 1959 to December 2012. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

10 Gauging Volatility: VIX Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange. For the period from January 1990 to December 2012.

11 Five Investing Strategies for a Volatile Market Don’t panic Take advantage of asset allocation Diversify by sector, size, and style Keep a long-term perspective Consider buying opportunities

12 Don’t Panic Source: Standard & Poor’s. This chart shows how a $10,000 investment would have been affected by missing the market's top-performing days over the 20-year period ended December 31, 2012. Stocks are represented by Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 Stocks, an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000076)

13 Take Advantage of Asset Allocation All Stock Portfolio40% Stock Portfolio60% Stock Portfolio * Total ReturnRisk* Total ReturnRisk* Total ReturnRisk* 1-year16.0%10.08%10.86%6.11%8.08%3.97% 5-year1.66%19.04%3.28%11.57%3.59%7.87% 10-year7.10%14.77%6.28%8.96%5.55%6.12% 20-year8.22%15.12%7.46%9.19%6.77%6.30% Stocks 100% Stocks 60% Cash 10% Bonds 30% Stocks 40% Cash 20% Bonds 40% *Annualized monthly standard deviation. Sources: Standard & Poor’s, Barclays Capital. For the periods ended December 31, 2012. Stocks represented by the S&P 500 index. Bonds represented by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond index. Cash represented by the Barclays 3-Month Treasury-Bills index. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

14 Diversify by Sector, Size, and Style Sector outperformance varies with the economic cycle Source: Standard & Poor’s. Sector performance represented by the performance of the 10 GICS sectors within Standard & Poor's Composite Index of 500 Stocks. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000172)

15 Keep a Long-Term Perspective The longer the holding period, the lower the variability in returns Source: Standard & Poor’s. For all indicated holding periods between January 1, 1926, and December 31, 2012. Domestic stocks are represented by the total returns of Standard & Poor's Composite Index of 500 Stocks, an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. (CS000070)

16 Consider Buying Opportunities Market Valuation Metrics in Selected Bull and Bear Markets Price/Earnings Ratio 2000-02 bull market peak (2000)30.0 2000-02 bear market bottom (2002)25.9 2007 bull market peak (2007)19.9 Average bull market peak since 195019.6 Average bear market bottom since 195016.9 Average all markets since 195017.8 Source: Standard & Poor’s. For the period from January 1, 1950, through December 31, 2012. Price/earnings ratios are based on 4-quarter trailing earnings. Average bull and bear market peak and bottom ratios based on final month average in cycle.

17 Special Considerations for Retirement Plan Assets Reallocate, don’t cut Never cut contributions below employer match If employer cuts match, contributing still makes sense

18 18 Looking Ahead Economy still in a downturn Housing slump continues Administration and Congress are confronting the issues Increased government oversight of financial markets will come Other structural changes to markets and economy are likely = Market volatility is likely to remain a given

19 19 Forward, Not Back Steps to recovery in process Upside greater than downside Using time-proven investing strategies is the best way to deal with continued market volatility

20 Questions? Investment options are offered through a group variable annuity contract (Forms 902-GAQC-09 or 902-GAQC-09(CT) or 902-GAQC- 09(OR)) underwritten by United of Omaha Life Insurance Company for contracts issued in all states except New York. United of Omaha Life Insurance Company, Omaha, NE 68175 is licensed nationwide except in New York. Companion Life Insurance Company, Hauppauge, NY 11788 is licensed in New York and underwrites the group variable annuity (Form 900-GAQC-07(NY)). Each company accepts full responsibility for each of their respective contractual obligations under the contract but does not guarantee any contributions or investment returns except as to the Guaranteed Account and the Lifetime Guaranteed Income Account as provided under the contract. Neither United of Omaha Life Insurance Company, Companion Life Insurance Company, nor their representatives or affiliates offers investment advice in connection with the contract. Group variable annuities are long-term investment vehicles designed to accumulate money on a tax-deferred basis for retirement purposes. Distributions may be subject to ordinary income tax and, if taken prior to age 59½, a 10 percent federal tax penalty may apply. Investing in a group variable annuity involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Investors should consider the investment objectives, strategies, risk factors, charges and expenses of the underlying portfolios carefully before investing. For additional information about the investment options, contact your plan administrator or visit www.getretirementright.com. Plan sponsor directed withdrawals may be subject to a market value adjustment charge. All content supplied by Standard & Poor’s


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