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Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Tingjun Zhang, Roger G. Barry, and David Gilichinsky SEARCH OSM.

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Presentation on theme: "Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Tingjun Zhang, Roger G. Barry, and David Gilichinsky SEARCH OSM."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Oliver W. Frauenfeld, Tingjun Zhang, Roger G. Barry, and David Gilichinsky SEARCH OSM

3 Frauenfeld, Zhang, Barry, and Gilichinsky: Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia 242 Russian Stations Soil Temperature and Freeze/Thaw DepthSoil Temperature Only

4 SEARCH OSM Frauenfeld, Zhang, Barry, and Gilichinsky: Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Permafrost vs. Seasonally Frozen Ground Seasonally Frozen Ground StationsPermafrost Stations

5 SEARCH OSM Frauenfeld, Zhang, Barry, and Gilichinsky: Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Data For 1930–1990: Soil temperature at 9 depths Measured freeze/thaw depth 0.5° x 0.5° globally gridded air temperature (CRU TS 1.0) Freezing and thawing index Snow depth from Historical Soviet Daily Snow Depth Data

6 SEARCH OSM Frauenfeld, Zhang, Barry, and Gilichinsky: Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Interpolation 0.20.40.60.8 1.21.62.02.43.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 3.2 Measured Values (m) Interpolated Values (m) 0.20.40.60.8 1.21.62.02.43.2 Measured Values (m) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 3.2 Interpolated Values (m) Interpolated = +1.0 Measured -0.059 Interpolated = +1.0 Measured -0.060 Active Layer Freeze Depth R = 1.0

7 SEARCH OSM Frauenfeld, Zhang, Barry, and Gilichinsky: Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Active Layer Trends 193019901978196619541942 -0.50 -0.25 0 0.25 0.50 193019901978196619541942 30 20 10 0 1930–1990 net change: +0.23 m 1956–1990 net change: +0.20 m Maximum Annual Depth Departure (m) # Stations

8 SEARCH OSM Frauenfeld, Zhang, Barry, and Gilichinsky: Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Freeze Depth Trends 193019901978196619541942 -0.50 -0.25 0 0.25 0.50 193019901978196619541942 180 120 60 0 1930–1990 net change: -0.27 m 1956–1990 net change: -0.34 m Maximum Annual Depth Departure (m) # Stations

9 SEARCH OSM Frauenfeld, Zhang, Barry, and Gilichinsky: Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Forcing Variables: Active Layer R = 0.60 R = 0.65 CorrelationsMultiple Regression Active Layer Depth = +0.32 T air +0.30 TI +0.52 SD R = 0.85 (72%) Trends 4 2 0 -2 -4 4 2 0 -2 -4 4 2 0 -2 -4 193019901978196619541942 Air Temperature (+0.47) Thawing Index (+0.34) Maximum Snow Depth (+0.43) S t a n d a r d i z e d D e p a r t u r e s

10 SEARCH OSM Frauenfeld, Zhang, Barry, and Gilichinsky: Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Active Layer Depth = -0.28 T air +0.55 FI -0.32 SD R = 0.90 (80%) Forcing Variables: Freeze Depth 3 2 1 0 3 2 1 0 3 2 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 193019901978196619541942 Air Temperature (+0.42) Freezing Index Maximum Snow Depth (+0.59) R = -0.62 R = 0.79 R = -0.52 CorrelationsMultiple RegressionTrends S t a n d a r d i z e d D e p a r t u r e s

11 SEARCH OSM Frauenfeld, Zhang, Barry, and Gilichinsky: Historical Changes in Seasonal Freeze and Thaw Depths in Russia Conclusions By 1990, active layer depth had increased by at least ~20 cm Freeze depth had decreased by over 30 cm by 1990 Changes in active layer are due to snow cover and air temperature (mean annual and thawing index) forcing. Changes in freeze depth are due to air temperature (freezing index and mean annual) and snow cover Seasonally frozen ground region of Russia seems more susceptible to climate change than permafrost, although both are being significantly impacted.

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