1. INITIATIVES AND REFERENDUMS

2. Initiatives and Referendums  Roots of the Movement  How Initiatives Work  Formal Mechanisms  Political Realities  Perspectives on the Process

3. Roots of the Movement  Coming to power in the wake of scandals at the turn of the century, “Progressives” were:  Moderate Republicans who split with the rest of their party.  Businessmen who wanted to bring technical expertise into government.  Political reformers.

4. Roots of the Movement  After successfully prosecuting Abe Ruef, the boss of San Francisco, Hiram Johnson was elected governor in 1910.  He brought direct democracy to the constitution in 1911: Initiative Referendum Recall

5. Roots of the Movement

6.  What explains the peculiar geography of direct democracy?  Progressives backed it in states where they agreed with the median voter (few Catholics, few poor farmers) and where the median voter was out of power.  The same year that California gave “power to the people,” we imposed a literacy test at the polls.

7. Roots of the Movement  How does California’s direct democracy differ from other states?  Placing an initiative on the ballot is relatively easy here.  California’s initiatives are binding and the legislature cannot amend them.  Especially since 1978, we use the process much more than most states.

8. How Initiatives Work: Formal Mechanisms  Basic definitions.  An initiative is a proposal for a new statute or constitutional provision that is wholly drafted by a citizen and voted on by the state electorate.  A petition referendum delays and puts up for vote a law passed by the legislature and signed by the governor.

9. How Initiatives Work: Formal Mechanisms  A compulsory referendum is a constitutional amendment or a bond that 2/3 of the Assembly and Senate put on the ballot.  These are consensus issues that generate campaigns costing only $300,000 and pass 69% of the time.  Initiatives are contentious issues that generate $7.4 million in spending on average and most of them fail.

10. How Initiatives Work: Formal Mechanisms  Step #1: Circulation. All it takes is an idea and $200 to officially register to circulate an initiative for 150 days.  12-0018 - "The California Residents College Accessibility and Affordability Act of 2014"  1225. Marriage. Elimination of Domestic Partnership Rights. Initiative Constitutional Amendment. ADDED to Initiatives in Circulation.  06-0031. "The Thomas Lomax Taxpayers Protection Act" ADDED to Initiatives Pending at the Attorney General's Office.  06-0032. "Save Our License Initiative" ADDED to Initiatives Pending at the Attorney General's Office.  06-0033. "Legislative Pay." ADDED to Initiatives Pending at the Attorney General's Office.  As of January 9, 2013, there was one initiative circulating, 3 pending with the AG’s office, and 5 had recently failed to qualify

11. How Initiatives Work: Formal Mechanisms  Step #2. Qualification. Requires signatures equal to X% of voters in the last gubernatorial race.  Constitutional Initiative: 8% or 807,615  Statutory Initiative: 5% or 504,760  Petition Referendum: 5% or 504,760

12. How Initiatives Work: Formal Mechanisms  Step #3. Vote. It takes a simple majority to approve, and an initiative can only be undone by another initiative

13. How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities  First Law of Initiative Qualification: Without $1-2 million, you cannot get anything on the ballot, no matter how popular.  Example. Even the furor over the killing of Polly Klass by career criminal Richard Allen Davis did not provide enough signatures to qualify 1994’s Proposition 184, “Three Strikes and You’re Out.”

14. How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities  Second Law of Init. Qualification: If you have $1-2 million, you can get absolutely anything on the ballot, no matter how wacky.  Example. Proposition 6, “The Prohibition of Horse Slaughter and Sale of Horsemeat for Human Consumption Act of 1998,” qualified and passed. The Sad Eyed Arab... Too Bad Nobody Took Him Home...

15. How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities  Big Money  In 2008 and 2010, a total of $711 million was spent for and against initiatives, with corporations spending $154 million and labor spending $61 million. Prop. 8 saw $104 million in spending.  Money Matters  Analysis of all initiatives from 1976-2004 shows that spending $100,000 either for or against an initiative changes its chances of passing by 1%.

16. How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities  Election Trends.  About two thirds of initiatives lose, but proponents are doing a bit better lately.  The more people learn about an initiative, the less they like it: Only two initiatives have passed when they originally polled under 50%. Rule of thumb is that if an item doesn’t poll at 80%, leave it out of your initiative package

17. How Initiatives Work: Practical Realities Change in Support for Initiatives During Campaigns, 1998-2004 elections

18. Perspectives on the Process  How do voters make their choices?  Nobody reads the entire 350 page ballot pamphlet or initiative texts.  But the big money spent on initiatives does provide political information.  As UCSD’s Skip Lupia showed, people make decisions that reflect their true preferences by following cues from supporters and opponents. 1/3 are “encyclopedias” 1/3 follow shortcuts 1/3 no very little

19. Perspectives on the Process  UCSD’s Mike Binder conducted five exit polls to look at how that last 1/3 of voters who are confused vote:  Contrary to conventional wisdom, they do not obstain or always vote “no.”  They roll the dice and cast a vote, often making an error based on their policy preferences.  Their errors are random and cancel out. People get it wrong, but the system gets it right.

20. Perspectives on the Process  Is there any room for compromise?  An initiative is a take it or leave it offer, leaving voters with only a choice between the status quo and the proposal.  They are almost always policy changes too extreme for the legislature to pass.  Many states for the legislature to work with initiative authors before the ballot.

21. Discussion Questions  Eugene Lee presents a typology of initiatives. Are some types more legitimate than others?  Does the fact that all initiatives rely on an “initiative industry” of paid signature gatherers matter?  Are voters sufficiently informed to make good decisions on ballot propositions. Do television ads hurt or help?