1. Budapest Conference 18/10/2004 P 1 “Trends and Prospects in the Information Society: Hungary and the New Member States” Past factors and future challenges for IS developments By: M. Bogdanowicz, C. Centeno, J-C. Burgelman IPTS, DG JRC, European Commission International Conference organised by the Hungarian Economic Association and the International Center for Economic Growth - European Center. Supported by the Ministry of Informatics and Communication of the Republic of Hungary 18 October 2004

2. Budapest Conference 18/10/2004 P 2 Ten factors explain today’s positioning of countries and regions in terms of Information Society developments In addition to those ten factors, three issues will have a growing influence on those developments during the next ten years. Those are three challenges for policy and research. Aims

3. Budapest Conference 18/10/2004 P 3 Part of the Directorate General Joint Research Center of the European Commission: 7 research Institutes IPTS mission : to provide scientific grounded, prospective techno-economic analysis in support of European policies and decision-making The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, IPTS

4. Budapest Conference 18/10/2004 P 4 What IS policies are needed for the NMS and CCs, at European and national level, to meet the “Lisbon objectives” of a knowledge-based society of growth, cohesion, sustainability, by 2010? What is the current status of the IS developments in NMS and CCs? Which have been the most relevant factors that have influenced IS trajectories in NMS and CCs during the past decade? What are likely future IS development scenarios? Key Research Questions in the Enlargement / ICT research area

5. Budapest Conference 18/10/2004 P 5 Patterns on ICT production ICT production is more country specific, and s ome factors explain the differences: ─ the quantity and quality of available human and physical capital ─ the economic policies ─ the size of the economy ─ the geographical proximity The impact of ICT production at national level is noticeable Expected developments: Even more differentiation between countries is expected, and will continue to be context-dependent At EU level, geographical re-location expected Globalization effects have started and are expected to continue

6. Budapest Conference 18/10/2004 P 6 Patterns on ICT usage ICT usage is there and growing ICT spending vs. GDP is higher than in EU In most ICT usage indicators, the NMS and CCs are in a weaker position than the previous 15 EU Member States Figures show significant differences between countries/regions ICT is adding complexity to the growing social divides Expected developments: ICT usage is expected to converge towards EU average, but by 2010 lags are here to stay

7. Budapest Conference 18/10/2004 P 7 Major factors having influenced IS developments in the EU during the nineties Growth, Macro Economic Stability & Public Finances Economic structural changes and the role of ICT The role of FDI & other financing tools Corporate Sector and ICT industry Committed and co-opetitive IS policies Privatisation, Regulation and their related institutional settings EU coordination, benchmarking and policies The Changing Consumption patterns Literacy, Capabilities, Skills, Education Essential intangible assets Economic Political Socio- Cultural

8. Budapest Conference 18/10/2004 P 8 Emerging issues influencing future IS developments in the EU Growth, Macro Economic Stability & Public Finances Economic structural changes and the role of ICT The role of FDI & other financing tools Corporate Sector and ICT industry Committed and co-opetitive IS policies Privatisation, Regulation and their related institutional settings EU coordination, benchmarking and policies The Changing Consumption patterns Literacy, Capabilities, Skills, Education Essential intangible assets Globalisation Demography Social Disparities

9. Budapest Conference 18/10/2004 P 9 Three future challenges for Information Society developments in an Enlarged Europe 1. Social Disparities Beyond the Innovation paradox: Disconnecting digital and social Divides 2. Demography Beyond the Growth/Demography squeeze: Transitions in Education 3. Globalisation Beyond the Solow paradox: Looking for the promising sectors Slide 9

10. Budapest Conference 18/10/2004 P 10 Thank you Contact: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies DG JRC,European Commission M.Bogdanowicz@cec.eu.int Clara.Centeno@cec.eu.int Jean-Claude.Burgelman@cec.eu.int Website: http://fiste.jrc.es/