1. NEDC/WLTP correlation process Meeting of TCMV on 17 November 2015

2. Objective
Ensure applicability of a more robust and precise emissions test procedure – WLTP - at type approval from 1 September 2017
Ensure availability of more realistic CO2 emission and fuel consumption values
- short term for consumer purposes
- longer term for new CO2 emission standards
Ensure that the CO2 reduction requirements agreed by the co-legislators for 2020 remain of comparable stringency following the change in test procedure

3. CO2 emission standards for cars
EU fleet targets are based on NEDC:
130g CO2/km in 2015
95g CO2/km in 2021 (phased-in from 2020)
Individual manufacturer targets are set annually to check compliance with the EU fleet target
CO2 emission data is monitored annually to calculate:
- manufacturer targets
- average CO2 emissions of the respective OEM fleets

4. Effects of WLTP introduction
CO2 emission values will increase (on average) – increase will differ between different manufacturers
Manufacturer fleets will temporarily include both NEDC and WLTP type approved CO2 values
Creates a need for ensuring a homogeneous CO2 emissions dataset for checking manufacturers' compliance with their individual CO2 target

5. Transition from NEDC to WLTP
1 September 2017:
New vehicle models: WLTP approved
Existing vehicle models: NEDC approved
1 September 2018:
All vehicle models: WLTP approved
End-of-series: NEDC approved
1 September 2019:
All vehicles: WLTP approved

6. The need for correlation
WLTP CO2 emissions will be higher than NEDC CO2 and the increase will differ between different manufacturers
Commission has to provide a correlation methodology to ensure "comparable stringency" : the CO2 reduction effort for each manufacturer must be comparable following the change from the old to the new test procedure

7. Proposal – NEDC based regime applies
NEDC based regime applicable until WLTP is fully implemented:
NEDC based EU fleet targets continue to apply during the transition to WLTP and until new EU targets enter into force – post 2021:
– 130g until 2019
- 95g in 2021 (phased-in from 2020)
From 2021 compliance with the EU fleet targets is checked against WLTP based manufacturer targets and WLTP CO2 emissions
From 2021 NEDC CO2 values are no longer monitored (exception super credit vehicles)

8. Proposal – homogeneous dataset for compliance purposes
During the transition period, NEDC CO2 values is to be determined for all vehicles that are WLTP approved using:
A software tool simulating the NEDC test procedure or
The physical NEDC vehicle test, in those cases where the simulation tool cannot deliver sufficient accuracy

9. CO2MPAS correlation tool
Facilitates transition to WLTP by avoiding extensive double testing campaigns
Uses robust WLTP test data as input for the NEDC calculation
Includes key NEDC test conditions that are explicitly regulated or confirmed by national type approval authorities
Stream-lines other NEDC test conditions and removes some flexibilities

10. CO2MPAS test conditions
NEDC test conditions proposed:
Vehicle inertia
Pre-conditioning effect
Set lab temperature
Battery state of charge
Tyre pressure
Tyre tread depth
Inertia of rotating parts
NEDC flexibilities removed:
NEDC coast down not used (WLTP coast down used as input)
NEDC driving profile tolerance
Test track slope
Lab temperature range

11. CO2MPAS accuracy
Expected accuracy is achieved for appr. 70% of the simulated cases (+/-2gCO2) :
Pilot testing using measurement data is on-going
Mock-up type approval tests to be performed over spring 2016 with Technical Services
Type approval version ready September 2016

12. Systematic errors CO2MPAS will be "frozen" for its usage period
Systematic errors must be detected and corrected – can be both positive and negative
The Commission has proposed a statistical methodology including random vehicle testing
Work is on-going to simplify the methodology

14. Double testing
Manufacturers can demonstrate to the type approval authority if CO2MPAS does not deliver sufficient accuracy
Physical vehicle tests to be performed on the same conditions as for the simulation test

15. Final correlation steps
Correlated NEDC CO2 values to be used for the WLTP CO2 family – test vehicle high and low
Interpolated NEDC CO2 values to be used in the certificate of conformity of individual vehicles

16. Type approval authorities' responsibility
Determine the input data for CO2MPAS
Run CO2MPAS and determine the correlation output
Determine which of the following to use for TVL/TVH:
- CO2MPAS value - Physical measurement
- OEM declared value
Record deviations between OEM declared value, CO2MPAS value and measured values

17. Adaptation of the monitoring system
VIN-based system needed
Additional parameters to be monitored, i.e.
- NEDC + WLTP CO2 emissions
- NEDC + WLTP eco-innovation savings
- WLTP test mass
- Correlation deviation factors to check systematic errors and potential abuse

18. 2021 WLTP based system Example:
In 2020 all vehicles will have both NEDC and WLTP CO2 emission values
The average emissions on WLTP are compared with the manufacturer's performance in meeting its annual NEDC target
Example:
If the fleet average in 2020 of an OEM is 95g NEDC and the NEDC OEM target is 95g, the WLTP target for 2021 is the average WLTP emissions in 2020

19. No change to 95/147g or limit value curves
TARGET TRANSITION
NEDC average emissions
NEDC 2020 monitoring database
Distance to the 95g based NEDC specific emission target
NEDC specific emission target (95gCO2 based)
WLTP 2021 specific emission target (adjusted +/- % - proportional method)
WLTP 2020 monitoring database
WLTP average emissions
From 2022:
WLTP target adjusted according to the change in OEM fleet mass

20. Next steps Issues to be addressed:
NEDC test conditions: ACEA request for changes
Simplification of the methodology to address systematic errors in CO2MPAS
Finalisation of CO2MPAS
- Workshops with type approval authorities on Nov and manufacturers/NGO on Dec
- Final type approval version ready Sept 2016

21. Next steps…
Ensuring consistency between WLTP regulation and the correlation procedure
Finalisation of the draft regulations
Vote in Climate Change Committee and Technical Committee on Motor Vehicles 1st quarter 2016

22. Thank you!