1. Gaps to Caps project Why we need a discussion on capability and scenario analysis and why task group C and task group D need to work together when it comes to formulate a methodology for capability assessments and scenarios for evaluating capability. ” A starting point for the proposed project ”From Gaps to Caps”, is that the risk assessments, ultimately, are means to provide answers to more fundamental questions of civil protection and disaster management such as Do we have the capability/capabilities needed to deal with the risk we are currently facing? Assessments of risk and capabilities are interlinked…”

2. Do we have the capabilities needed to deal with the risks we are facing? Capability Assessment The Swedish Experience From Gaps to Caps, Tallinn 9-11 November 2015

3. National capability assessment: Assessment of the capability to prevent and respond to emergencies, crises and war Purpose: to identify gaps in order to focus on development efforts and to prioritize resources

4. National Capability assessments have been carried out - and reported to the government -by MSB and its predecessors, -using different methods, -almost every year since the 1990:s The capability assessment is currently under development to be merged with the Swedish National Risk Assessment, (NRA)

5. The Swedish Definition of Capability The definition we use for capability in Sweden is the following: How well one or more actors* in society – or society in its entirety – manage to: 1)prevent that emergencies, crises or wars occurs in the first place, 2)in case they still occur: prepare and respond to the incident; manage to carry out ordinary, prioritized, activities. * (agencies, municipalities, private enterprises etc.)

6. The Swedish Definition of Capability 2 overarching capabilities Capability to prevent Capability to prepare and respond 5 dimensions of each capability (give a more concrete picture of what is needed to develop and maintain the 2 overarching capabilities) Management/leadership Cooperation Communication Knowledge and competence Resources

7. Established a process/ methodology identified 200 potential risks deemed 27 of these to be particularly serious (national) events analyzed risks (probability and consequences) through 14 scenarios The NRA 2011-2014, part of the Risk Management Cycle

8. One step missing between the NRA and the RM planning: in Sweden we wish to do an assessment of the risks and vulnerabilities, i.e. a capability assessment. Capability Assessment in the NRA – towards a National Risk and Capability Assessment (NRCA)

10. On Swedish capability assessment and the EU guidelines on Risk Management Capability assessment Swedish/MSB capability assessment EU guidelines concern the risk management process – are we assessing risks, planning and implementing measures in the best way possible? Scenario based 1. Capabilities needed? 2. Existing capability? 3. Capability Gaps? 4. Level of capability? 5. Input to RM planning

11. Scenario-Analyses Likelihood (risk assessment) Uncertainty (risk assessment) Impacts (risk assessment) Capability (capability assessment) It is essential that experts are involved in all these assessments!

12. Work shop format for scenario analyses – an important input to the assessment Workshop – Important input (but not the only one) Do a stakeholder analysis (15-39 persons) before the work shop Representing all levels in the society: local, regional, national What are the consequences for different societal sectors such as: - Energy - Transport - Finance and commerce - Health services - Information and communications - Public sector (national, regional, local) - Food and agriculture -and so on

13. Work shop- session 1 Create a common understanding (before, during, after) at the workshop Responsibility/tasks in the scenario Critical resources (priorities need to be made) Interactions between stakeholders Impacts for each stakeholder This can preferably be done in smaller groups, where there is an appointed discussion leader. (from your organisation). Let everyone speak, the group leader makes sure of this. Document the discussions. (from your organisation). All groups meet up and presents their discussion to let everyone hear. Document this as well. (from your organisation).

14. Work shop- session 2 Impacts on the National values of protection Capability Gaps This can preferably be done in smaller groups, where there is an appointed discussion leader (from your organisation). Let everyone speak, the group leader makes sure of this. Document the discussions (someone for your organisation) All groups meet up and presents their discussion to let everyone hear. Document this as well. (someone for your organisation)

15. Assess the impacts 10 pple die Costs 50 billion Contaminated water Upset population Human impacts Economic and environmental impacts Political/social impacts Assess the capability Capability to respond Why did these consequences occur? Capability to prevent Why did the scenario occur? We have GAPS in.. - leadership -cooperation -communication -knowledge and competence -resources What GAPS do we need fill in order to reduce the consequences- what CAPABILITIES do we need!? What happens in the scenario? We have GAPS in.. - leadership -cooperation -communication -knowledge and competence -resources

16. Scenario- analysis workshop -Analysis require research prior and after expert workshops -Complement the work shop with expert interviews, and a whole lot of reading. -Risk analysis and capability analysis are interlinked and your capabilities or gaps in capability will affect both the likelihood of the scenario and/or the impact. -Your capability gaps describes your vulnerabilities. -In order to answer what vulnerabilities you have you need to ask “capability questions”. -Document all steps of the process. -Important to realise that the workshop is only step of the process, heavy analysis work is a head of you after the work shop. What kind of capabilities do we need and to what extent? Is the capability we have enough? Do we have to take certain measures in order to enhance/increas e our capability? Are the capabilities we have inadequate? Have we seen any improve- ments in our capability?

17. Thank You! For further info: Susanne Karlsson Kristin Jacobsson MSB, Sweden susanne.karlsson@msb.se kristin.jacobsson@msb.se