1. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 БРАЧНОСТЬ, РОЖДАЕМОСТЬ И МИГРАЦИЯ В КЫРГЫЗСТАНЕ MARRIAGE, CHILDBEARING, AND MIGRATION IN KYRGYZSTAN Sociodemographic Study Preliminary results

2. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Study objectives  To examine marital, reproductive, and migratory behavior and attitudes of young people  To test a new conceptual model and a new instrument  Pilot project focusing on selected parts of Northern Kyrgyzstan  Long-term goal: develop and implement a national-level longitudinal system of migration investigation and monitoring in Kyrgyzstan

3. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Funding and implementing agencies  Funding: Grant from the National Council for East European and Eurasian Research, USA  Arizona State University, USA  Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University, Kyrgyzstan  With technical support of the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan

4. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Basic conceptual Model Reproduction Migration Marriage

5. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Study design  Representative survey in three parts of northern Kyrgyzstan  Bishkek  Issyk-Kul oblast  Chui oblast  1535 respondents  Aged 18-29  Usual residents of selected households  Equal number of men and women

6. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Sampling design Five separate sampling domains:  Bishkek city (32 clusters): 512 respondents  Chui, urban (13 clusters in 6 towns): 204 respondents  Chui, rural (19 clusters=19 villages): 308 respondents  Issyk-Kul, urban (13 clusters in 4 towns): 204 respondents  Issyk-Kul, rural (19 clusters in 17 villages): 308 respondents In all domains: the probability of selection was proportional to cluster’s size In addition, in rural domains: the probability of selection was inversely proportional to relative size of ethnic Kyrgyz.

7. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05

8. Sampling design (cont.) Random selection of households within each domain Random selection of eligible respondent, regardless of sex, within each household Additional households drawn if no eligible men and women; selected individuals unavailable or unwilling to participate; the quota for one of the genders is filled.

9. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Survey Instrument Sections: 1.Household characteristics 2.Respondent’s characteristics 3.Marriage and spouse’s characteristics 4.Health and reproductive behavior 5.Migration: past and future 6.Social networks 7.Community life participation 8.Political participation and attitudes 9.Family and gender attitudes

10. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Survey Implementation Conducted in respondent’s households Conducted in Kyrgyz (25%) and Russian (75%) Average duration: ~ 45 minutes Each respondent received a symbolic monetary compensation Each respondent was entered into a lottery to win a mobile phone (1 or 2 prizes)

11. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Main sociodemographic characteristics Mean age: 23.1 (23.4 women; 22.8 men) The average household size: 4.0  13% of respondents were heads of their HHs: (men 17.4%, women 8.5%) Ethnicity: Kyrgyz 56.9% and non-Kyrgyz (mainly ethnic Russians) 43.1%  Language spoken at home: Kyrgyz 49.7% Religion: Muslims 63% Education: at least some higher education, 38.2% (40.9% women and 35.5% men); complete higher education: 15.2% Economic conditions: 73% running water; 27.2% of households had an automobile Worked for income in past 4 weeks: 58% men and 33.3% women In marital union (ЗАГС or “civil union”) 33.1% (22.5% of men and 43.3% of women) Officially married (through ЗАГС): 26.5% (17.8% of men and 34.9% of women) Among those not in union: 91.7% wanted to get married one day. Children: 70.9% didn’t have any children; Average number of children 0.44.

12. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Reproductive preferences

13. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Reproductive Preferences (cont.)

14. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Migration plans and intentions

15. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Migration plans and intentions (cont.)

16. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Migration plans and intentions (cont.)

17. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Migration plans and intentions (cont.)

18. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Summary of multivariate regression analyses 1. Influence of migration intention on intention to get married within two years:  Firm plan to move have no significant effect on wishes to get married soon,  Wishing to move increases the likelihood of wishing to get married soon 2. Influence of migration intention on intention to have a child within two years:  Having a firm plan to move decreases the odds of wanting to have a child soon.  Having a tentative desire to move does not affect the odds of wanting to have a child soon.  Results are similar regardless of destination 3. Influence of migration intention on modern contraceptive use:  Firm plan has no effect  Migration preference a strong positive effect  No effects if we look at foreign destinations only

19. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Summary of multivariate regression analyses (cont.) 4. Influence of marital status and number of children on having firm plans to move anywhere:  marital status does not affect plans to move  having at least one child significantly decreases the likelihood of having firm plans to move out of the community of residence.  Similar patterns for firm plans to move abroad, but less convincing statistically

20. UNFPA Biskhek Office, 27/09/05 Further directions More complex and sensitive multivariate analysis of both past migration and future intentions. Presentation and publication of results Making the database freely and widely available to users worldwide Designing a nationwide longitudinal study