1. Pronatalist Policy Search of Turkey Yusuf Yüksel Head of Social Inclusion Department at Ministry of Development of Turkey Visiting Scholar at OXCIS

2. Pronatalist Policy Search of Turkey Aim Demographic Transition of Turkey Past Trends of Population Policy European Models/Paths Critique of Current Law Proposal for a Pronatalist Policy

3. Aim After 2000, fertility rates and future of population have been discussed and questioned by scholars and policy makers. In 2005 for the first time in nation’s history age population of primary school has been declined and after 2010 total fertility rate has decreased below replacement level. A Law proposal is formed in order to stop/reverse trends in fertility.

4. Demographic Transition of Turkey Total Population 1927-2013 (.000)

5. Demographic Transition of Turkey Total Fertility Rate 1923-2013

6. Demographic Transition of Turkey Share of Age Groups in Total Population (%)

7. Population Prospects Total Population

8. Population Prospects Total Fertility Rate 2013: 1.99 2010 National Population Projection Estimation for 2023: 1.85 Estimation for 2050: 1.65 10. Development Plan 2018 Target: 2,20

9. Population Prospects Share of Age Groups (2013-2050)

10. Population Policy 1923-2013 1923-1960: Post-War Pranatalist Period. Public campaigns, awards, tax exempts, abortion restrictions 1960-2000: Antinatalist Period. Investment in reproductive health, free contraceptive, legal abortions, public campaigns 2000-2013: No clear population policy rhetoric. Quality Matters. After 2013: Rebirth of pronatalist expectations!

11. European Trends Below 1.5 Total Fertility Rate, constant and sharp declines East Europe: Volatile and fragile economy, weak public support, weak family ties. German Speaking Countries: Conservative welfare regimes. South European Countries: Traditional family structure, weak welfare state, weak institutional childcare, low cohabitation and out of marriage births.

12. European Trends 1.7-1.9 Total Fertility Rate: North-Western Countries Smooth decline, stabilising TFR, little upward trends Strong welfare state High levels of cohabitation and out of marriage births, atomized households High female labour force participation rates and institutional childcare Institutional trust

13. How About Turkey ? Low Female Labour Force Participation: % 30 Increasing education levels Traditional Family Structure Gender Based Division of Labour (time use) Immature welfare state Institutional childcare less than 2 % Does being muslim change the picture? Bosnia ?, Iran ? ! Optimistic TFR estimations !

14. Pronatalist Law Proposal No mention to migration Direct population policy measures Little reference to strengthening welfare state No clear indication of coercive methods but some political debates on abortion Materail Benefit oriented approach

15. Cash Benefits Cash benefits for young couples if they marry at the ages of 18-25 -Potential effect is limited Increase child allowances of salaries. Cash support to third child - Lack of institutional trust for long term behaviour Support working women by tax exempts - Ethical questions on state-citizen relations Unsuccesful Experience: Russia and East Europe

16. Childcare Workplaces over 200 workers must have creche/childcare facilities. - Corresponds to 2 % of work force ! Tax exempts for workplaces if they have creches - Positive but limited Change strict rules for set up private childcare - One of the major problems for private sector Modest increase in maternal leave, no paternal leave - From 16 weeks to 18 weeks, part-time work for following two months Family Support Centres in Neighborhoods - Positive but unclear for now. Succesfull Model: Scandinavian Countries

17. Rhetoric of Policy Current rhetoric is centred around the concept of development - People are reflexive against personal matters Reference to gap between actual TFR and desired number of children - Setting the matter as a capability problem and welfare gap is positive but desired number of children is a questionnable concept Unsucessful experience: Singapore

18. Conclusion Long term vision versus “too long term” vision From demographic window of opportunity to demographic burden !  Acute problem: EDUCATION  NEET rate for 15-24 year is 34 %  PISA rank 31. country among OECD countries  HDI education Index 112. country  Female Labour Force Participation Rate: 30 %  Rural Population: 30 %

19. Conclusion Expectations of policy makers should be modest and patient  Persistent effect is possible only in the long  Current law proposal may have tempo effect, little potential in the long run  Quality of education should be increased  Institutional trust should be ensured through generous welfare policies

20. Conclusion Gender balance and equality of opportunity  Maternal leave minimum 12 months  Paternal leave should be increased  Institutional child care should be available at all neighbourhoods  More research and data are needed  Cultural factors should not be ignored in policy making procedures

21. Thank You... yukselyu@yahoo.com yusuf.yuksel@kalkinma.gov.tr