1. The decision will be made anyway – How can analysis help? “too late, we’ve already gone to print” Keith Goodman Jason Field Dstl

2. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Menu Background –Why evidence-based decision-making –Context of MOD analysis –SDSR Supporting decision-making –Timing –Push vs pull –Exploitation, Exploitation, Exploitation Measurement –Next time…

3. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Analysis... The application of scientific methods to assist executive decision-makers brings together –objectives, options and assumptions –data –expert judgement examines their implications in an iterative way, in close collaboration with problem owner and other stakeholders … … through the use of models

4. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Why does UK MOD do analysis? UK Government aspires to evidence-based decision making –scientific evidence HM Treasury delegates significant financial authority to MOD on the basis that processes are in place to ensure “good” decisions are made –independent scrutiny The future is uncertain –multiple potential worlds & scenarios Many decisions are complex and interdependent –models

5. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Strategy Force/ Campaign/Society Systems of Systems/ Operational/Groups Systems/Tactical/Individuals Physical/Physiological Processes data context increasingly subjective increasingly uncertain Hierarchy of analysis Measures of Policy Effectiveness Measures of Force Effectiveness Measures of System Effectiveness Measures of Performance Dimensional Parameters

6. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 The Defence Green Paper “Adaptability and Partnership: Issues for a Strategic Defence Review” Published 3 Feb 2010 Accompanied by –Future Character of Conflict –Global Strategic Trends To publicly open the debate ahead of the anticipated Defence Review Where should we set the balance between focusing on our territory and region and engaging threats at a distance? What approach should we take if we employ the Armed Forces to address threats at distance? What contribution should the Armed Forces make in ensuring security and contributing to resilience within the UK? How could we more effectively employ the Armed Forces in support of wider efforts to prevent conflict and strengthen international stability? Do our current international defence and security relationships require rebalancing in the longer term? Should we further integrate our forces with those of key allies and partners? Should we refocus our current efforts on Afghanistan? 1.Uncertainty & Affordability 2.Complexity & the Use of Force 3.Adaptability & Influence 4.Partnership 5.People, Equipment & Structures 6.Key Questions for the Future SDR

7. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Political change General Election: 6 May 2010 First UK hung parliament since 1974 –end of 13 years in office for Labour Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition agreed –Prime Minister: David Cameron –Defence Secretary: Dr Liam Fox –inherited a difficult financial position Immediate consequences: –National Security Council created –formal start of Strategic Defence & Security Review –fixed-term parliaments: next election in May 2015 "Dear chiefsecretary, I'mafraid there isno money.Kind regards -and goodluck!"

8. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Shaping the SDSR “The SDSR will make a clean break from the military and political mindset of cold war policies. It will be strategic, cross-government and comprehensive, covering all areas of defence and security.” SofS for Defence RUSI 14/6/2010 “The review will need to provide a step change, not salami-slicing. We will have to bring defence policy, plans, commitments and Resources into balance, confront the harsh facts of the economic climate in which we operate …..” SofS for Defence Hansard HofC 21/6/10 “Let me sum up the Ministry of Defence’s approach to the SDSR. First, relevance: our posture and capabilities must be relevant to the world we now live in Secondly, realism: resources are tight for the country as a whole, defence is no exception Thirdly, responsibility: as a nation, …” SofS for Defence RUSI 14/6/2010 “… protecting our way of life and providing security for our citizens is the primary and overriding duty of Government, that is why the SDSR must become a national endeavour and all in Government must have the political resilience, strength, will and resolve to see us through.” SofS for Defence Hansard HofC 21/6/10

9. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 The SDSR Analysis “… So, let me set out the process of analysis we are going through at the moment. We are contrasting cost savings and the capability implications with the risks that we face in the real global security environment. This means assessing any proposed change in a current programme or platform, against a series of criteria including: First, the cost saving in years zero to 5, 5 to 10 and 10 plus. Second, the capability implications - what capability will be lost as a result of this decision and what other assets do we possess that might give us the same or a similar capability? Third, the operational implications - what operations that we currently undertake, or are likely to undertake, will we be unable to undertake as a result of this change? Fourth, the ability to regenerate the capability, at what cost and in what timeframe. And fifth, the risk in the real world that this capability currently protects us from or is likely to protect us from in the foreseeable future.” SofS for Defence, Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors 13 August 2010

10. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Analysis for the SDSR Force structure Analysis Workstrand support Synthesis But … –not talking about the detail of the SDSR, but a reflection on the role of analysis in decision making.

11. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Decision timing Analysis Politics Industry impact Bias Pre-conceptions Other? Advice Question (?) Synthesis

12. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 So … Analysis should be –timely –useful –understandable

13. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Timeliness Rate of production of analysis vs rate of progress in context/decision/question –analysis slower than context chaos –analysis = context catch-up –analysis faster than context convergent, optimised Timely delivery of analysis –pre-emptive research (shelf- stacking) –modular programme design –logical interface/access tools –being ‘part of the team’

14. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull –Support to critical decision points timing and scope –Analysing the ‘So what?’ cost, effectiveness, risk –Trust and confidence –Effectiveness in communicating analysis Meaning analysis done ‘to customers’, not confined to a pre-submitted question Meaning analysis done ‘for customers’, generally confined to their pre- submitted question

15. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull –Quick pace Rapidly delivered advice –High-level ‘big-hand, tiny map’

16. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull –Implementation. ‘So What?’ detail, deeper analysis programme implications test and validate assumptions greater consideration of complexity of issues less time pressure (perhaps?)

17. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Pre (and during) SDSRPost-SDSR Time pressure Complexity Rapid analysis Utilisation of the pre-stacked shelves More considered design More detail ‘So What?’

18. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull –Closeness to decision-makers, independence is important –Good exploitation pre-SDSR could increase desire for Evidence- based decision support post-SDSR (including ‘business as usual’) –Exploitation of ‘pulled’ analysis easier (in theory?)

19. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Exploitation Pre (and during) SDSR vs Post SDSR Push vs Pull   Important Not important AskedNot asked Less evidence-based decisions (Poor decisions?)

20. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 So … Analysis is of utility within the SDSR –bespoke analysis and ‘meta-analysis’ Analysis support to SDSR will continue Lessons can be learnt that will help develop the use of analysis for evidence-based decision-making –not just for Strategic Reviews

21. © Dstl 2009 Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence 12 January 2016 Next time? Fixed-term elections Regular Strategic Defence Reviews –every Parliament? Impact for Analysis? know (in advance) its coming know the process be a part of the process know what’s important, and the metrics know the questions

22. End Questions? Keith Goodman Dstl Portsdown West Portsdown Hill Road Hampshire PO17 6AD tel +44 (0) 23 9253 2144 kgoodman@dstl.gov.uk Jason Field Dstl Fort Halstead Sevenoaks Kent TN14 7BP tel +44 (0) 1959 892217 jrfield@dstl.gov.uk