1. European Commission Regional Policy 1 Adapting to climate change – a focus on the regions Regions for Economic Change Bruxelles, 17 February 2009 Agnes Kelemen European Commission, DG Regional Policy

2. European Commission Regional Policy 2 Regional impacts of climate change

3. European Commission Regional Policy 3 Impacts of climate change: asymmetric impacts Built environment and densely populated areas Coastal erosion River and flash floods Wind and storms Human health Vulnerable economic sectors: Agriculture Fisheries Tourism Energy Forestry

4. European Commission Regional Policy 4 Coastal erosion "there are projected to be fewer but more extreme weather events in the Baltic and North Sea regions, there may be increased localized storminess in the Adriatic, Aegean and Black Sea, while wind intensity may decline in the Mediterranean". (IPCC 4AR) Combination of two sources of information: population living below 5m elevation on Atlantic, North Sea and Baltic Sea coast

5. European Commission Regional Policy 5 The economic damage from floods will be largest in absolute terms in areas where the value of the assets affected is high, which is mostly in areas with high income (most EU15) The damage in relative terms, compared with GDP, can also be high in areas with lower income and lower absolute value of assets affected (varied picture across Europe) River floods (1)

6. European Commission Regional Policy 6 River floods (2) Change of population affected by river floods, estimation for 2100 under IPCC A2 scenario compared with today Source: population affected based on JRC (2007) An assessment of weather-related risks in Europe: maps of flood and drought risks, change in population affected calculated by JRC Regionally differentiated impact, low in the Mediterranean and northern parts of Europe

7. European Commission Regional Policy 7 River floods (3)

8. European Commission Regional Policy 8 Agriculture (1) Climate induced impacts: Changing agricultural yields due to changes in average temperature and precipitation: overall yields in Europe unaffected in the medium term, increase in yields in northern Europe, but yield decreases could be as high as 30% by 2100 in southern parts of Europe Extreme weather events increase yield variability The mortality of livestock will increase from heat waves and an increase in vector borne diseases

9. European Commission Regional Policy 9 Agriculture (2) Crop yield changes under the IPCC A2 scenario by 2080s relative to the period 1961-1990, results from 2 different models (Source: PESETA)

10. European Commission Regional Policy 10 Agriculture (3) Regional share of agriculture and fisheries in GVA Soil moisture deficit change by 2070- 2100 compared with 1960-1990 under the IPCC A2 scenario

11. European Commission Regional Policy 11 Fishery Climate induced impacts: Climate change will increase already existing stress on marine ecosystems resulting from overfishing, pollution, eutrophication species will move north changes in temperature likely to increase susceptibility of fish to disease, Impacts of climate change, and the interactions between these impacts, such as changes in salinity and acidification, as well as losses of coastal ecosystems, are not yet fully understood

12. European Commission Regional Policy 12 Forestry Climate induced impacts: increase in temperatures result in increased yields in north (by 44% in Finland under the A2 scenario) and decreased yields in south, as well as the northward expansion of forests, distribution of impacts across Europe similar to impacts on agriculture increase in forest fires in south increased damage from extreme weather events increased carbon fertilization change in the resilience of tree species to pests and an increase in the number of pests Impacts on forest ecosystems will always be negative

13. European Commission Regional Policy 13 Tourism (1) Climate induced impacts: Number of snow reliable areas in the Alps under a 2°C increase scenario would be reduced from the current 600 to 400, and to 200 under a 4°C scenario The Mediterranean region will become less attractive due to heat waves which will raise temperatures above the heat comfort zone, and due to the general scarcity of water. Regions in the Atlantic, northern European regions and some parts of the Continental climate zones might become more attractive for tourism Most heavily affected areas in the Mediterranean and in mountainous regions

14. European Commission Regional Policy 14 Tourism (2) Share of employment in hotels and restaurants Share of high employment in the tourism sector mainly in the Mediterranean and mountainous areas. This coincides with expected negative impacts in the Mediterranean on summer tourism and in mountainous areas on winter tourism.

15. European Commission Regional Policy 15 Human health Climate induced impacts: direct effect of climate change on human health: –under a 2°C scenario, the number of heat-related deaths could increase 2-3 times in urban areas. –Heat related deaths could reach 100,000 a year under the A2 scenario in 2100. Cold-related deaths will decrease, mainly in northern Europe. –By 2080 under the A2 scenario the net effect of the decrease in cold related deaths and the increase in heat-related deaths is 86,000 more deaths a year. The B2 scenario would result in a net increase of 36,000 deaths. South of Europe most affected extreme weather events, such as storms and floods availability and quality of drinking water: additional number of people affected by water stress 16-44 million by 2070 increase in food and vector born diseases in previously relatively unaffected regions Effect of climate change influenced by other trends and circumstances: aging of resident population health infrastructure (e.g. number of hospital beds low in Mediterranean)

16. European Commission Regional Policy 16 Energy Climate induced impacts: increasing demand for summer cooling in the south and decreasing demand for winter heating in the north change in hydropower production: increase in hydropower production potential may exceed 25% in the north, a decrease of the same magnitude will occur in the south increase in the temperature of cooling water of power plants will also result in decreased production levels, especially in the south the potential production of biomass will be affected differently in different climate zones. conditions for solar energy production may improve likely to lead to greater fluctuations of energy production, particularly in regions with a high share of renewable energy and varying water availability for cooling in fossil fuel and nuclear power plants.

17. European Commission Regional Policy 17 Asymmetric impacts of climate change Regional growth –mild impacts in urban areas on economic sectors –potentially strong impact on assets in densely populated areas with high asset values –strong impacts on weather dependent sectors (tourism, agriculture, fishery, forestry, energy) Sustainability –increased pressure on natural resources in both demand and supply (e.g. increased demand for water in times of drought accompanied by decreased supply) Equity –strongly negatively affected in areas with high temperature increases and peak summer temperatures and low water availability –Low income = lower capacity to adapt

18. European Commission Regional Policy 18 Adaptation to the impacts of climate change

19. European Commission Regional Policy 19 Vulnerability = exposure + sensitivity + adaptive capacity "Vulnerability to climate change can be classified as exposure to changes in the climate, sensitivity – the degree to which a system is affected by or responsive to climate stimuli, and adaptive capacity – the ability to prepare for, respond to and tackle the effects of climate change." (Stern Review)

20. European Commission Regional Policy 20 The need for adaptation Climate change is unavoidable: even if all emissions stopped now, a further 0.5-1°C increase in the global annual mean surface temperature would be experienced in the coming decades due to time lags in the response of the climate and oceanic systems dampening the effects of climate change: adaptation is "an adjustment in the natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities associated with climate change" (IPCC TAR)

21. European Commission Regional Policy 21 Alternative approaches for uncertainty management (source Hulme, 2008) Adaptation strategies

22. European Commission Regional Policy 22 Adaptation potential is determined by information on the nature and evolution of the climate hazards faced by a society, as well as information on socio-economic systems, including both past and possible future evolution, resources, including financial capital, social capital (e.g., strong institutions, transparent decision-making systems, formal and informal networks that promote collective action), human resources (e.g., labour, skills, knowledge and expertise) and natural resources (e.g., land, water, raw materials, biodiversity) the ability of a society to act collectively, and to resolve conflicts between its members, which is heavily influenced by governance, key actors accepting responsibility for adaptation. Adaptation potential (in particular resources and collective action) may be lower in some Objective 1 regions Adaptation potential

23. European Commission Regional Policy 23 Cohesion Policy and climate change

24. European Commission Regional Policy 24 Cohesion Policy and Climate Change in the period 2007-2013 Cohesion Policy spending on environment in the 2007-2013 programming period 14.5% of total Community amount on investments directly related to the environment a further 15.8% of total Community amount for investments indirectly related to the environment a total of 30.4%, including both direct and indirect figures approx. 90% of this spending under the Convergence objective Cohesion Policy spending on climate change in the 2007-2013 programming period 4.82% of total Community amount on investments directly related to climate change (renewable energy, energy efficiency, mitigation and adaptation to climate change, air quality, risk prevention) a further 9.2% of total Community amount for investments indirectly related to climate change (railways, mobile rail assets, cycle tracks, intelligent transport systems, clean urban transport) a total of 13.9%, including both direct and indirect figures approx. 90% of this spending under the Convergence objective No separate category for adaptation to climate change, spending on adaptation activities now known

25. European Commission Regional Policy 25 Cohesion Policy and climate change adaptation after 2013 (1) Work is only now beginning on question regarding scope for financing of adaptation activities under CP after 2013, no decisions have been taken. What do we know at this time? 1. Horizontal approach: Not considering climate change will result in suboptimal investments which will not be viable in the long term  the fact of climate change has to be taken into account –Increase resilience of entire systems –Analyse costs of increased investment compared with lower damages to infrastrure in future  Climate proof individual investments? OPs projects have to comply with EU legislation. Already existing legislation related to climate change adaptation are e.g.

26. European Commission Regional Policy 26 Cohesion Policy and climate change adaptation after 2013 (2) Financing of adaptation activities through CP? There has to be a rationale for public involvement. Climate Change adaptation involves multiple market failures (Stern): –uncertainty and imperfect information, –missing and misaligned markets (including public goods), and –financial constraints. Other EU and national policies to deal with climate change exist, the main aim of Cohesion Policy is economic and social cohesion Focus of CP is on regions and territorial cooperation  there are problems which are best addressed at regional level, or in the framework of territorial cooperation because of the scope of the problem, the availability of information, etc. If an EU policy is used, there should be added value of European involvement, i.e. EU action has to provide added value compared with individual action by regions or MS If EU money is spent, spending should be efficient  it should be shown that the problem cannot be sufficiently addressed by less public involvement, e.g. legislation, market based mechanisms

27. European Commission Regional Policy 27 Cohesion Policy and climate change adaptation after 2013 (2) Tasks for CP or regions? Role of CP: –Provides general framework –Provides complementary financing –Coordinates –Helps cross border networking Role of regions: –To evaluate regional threats and potential, strengths and weaknesses –To develop regional plan for adaptation (likely based on national framework and framework to be provided by the Adaptation White Paper) –To implement adaptation activities

28. European Commission Regional Policy 28 Thank you for your attention!