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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook April 2008 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council.

Published byIsabel Kristina Hunt Modified over 8 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook April 2008 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council."— Presentation transcript:

1 U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook April 2008 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

2 Macroeconomic Environment

3 U.S. Real GDP Growth

4 U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price

5 U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast

6 Civilian Unemployment Rate

7 U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection)

8 CBO Ag Baseline Spending

9 Real GDP Growth in Selected Countries

10 Euro (Currency per U.S. Dollar)

11 Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )

12 Ag Prices Received Index

13 U.S. Net Farm Income

14 U.S. Cotton Supply

15 December Cotton Futures Cents per Pound

16 December Corn Futures Cents per Bushel

17 November Soybean Futures Cents per Bushel

18 Southeast2,255 2,022 -10.3 Mid-South 2,750 1,960 -28.7 Southwest5,122 4,935 -3.7 West411 269 -34.5 ALL UPLAND 10,538 9,186 -12.8 ALL ELS292 204 -30.3 ALL COTTON10,830 9,390 -13.3 Southeast2,255 2,022 -10.3 Mid-South 2,750 1,960 -28.7 Southwest5,122 4,935 -3.7 West411 269 -34.5 ALL UPLAND 10,538 9,186 -12.8 ALL ELS292 204 -30.3 ALL COTTON10,830 9,390 -13.3 2008 U.S. Planting Intentions 20072008% Actual Intended* Change Actual Intended* Change 20072008% Actual Intended* Change Actual Intended* Change Thousand Acres *2008 NASS Prospective Plantings Report *2008 NASS Prospective Plantings Report

19 U.S. Cotton Production * USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

20 U.S. Cotton Supply * USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

21 U.S. Cotton Demand

22 Net Domestic Fiber Consumption

23 Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption

24 Components of Retail Cotton Consumption

25 U.S. Cotton Textile Imports

26 U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports

27 U.S. Trade With Mexico

28 U.S. Trade with CBI

29 U.S. Imports from China

30 U.S. Textile and Apparel Imports from China (All Fibers)

31 U.S. Cotton Mill Use (Calendar Year, Million Bales) *National Cotton Council Forecast

32 U.S. Cotton Mill Use (Crop Year, Million Bales) *USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

33 U.S. Cotton Production & Use * USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

34 The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports

35 China Cotton Supply & Use * USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

36 World Cotton Production * USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

37 World Fiber Mill Use *PCI

38 Fiber Prices

39 World Cotton Mill Use * USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

40 Foreign Cotton Production & Use * USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

41 U.S. Cotton Exports * USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

42 World Cotton Ending Stocks * USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

43 Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)

44 U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks9.489.70 Production19.4015.00 Imports0.020.00 Total Supply28.8924.70 Mill Use4.704.50 Exports14.5015.00 Total Offtake*19.2019.50 Ending Stocks9.705.20 Stocks-to-Use Ratio50.5%26.7% 2007/082008/09** **USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates *Includes Unaccounted

45 Beginning Stocks61.2059.64 Production119.73123.00 Imports39.0943.10 Mill Use124.94129.50 Exports38.9442.70 Ending Stocks59.6457.04 Stocks-to-Use Ratio47.7%44.0% World Supply and Demand Million Bales 2007/082008/09* * USDA 2008 Ag Outlook Forum Estimates

46 Merchants Ginners Cottonseed Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers

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