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General Economy Real GDP Growth Source: IMF – January 2009.

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Presentation on theme: "General Economy Real GDP Growth Source: IMF – January 2009."— Presentation transcript:

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2 General Economy

3 Real GDP Growth Source: IMF – January 2009

4 W Texas Crude Oil Price Source: Department of Energy – January 2009

5 US $ vs Cotton Importers

6 US Unemployment Source: BLS – Monthly Seasonally Adj

7 US Federal Budget Source: CBO – January 2009

8 Int’l Cotton Outlook

9 China Cotton Supply & Use

10 India Cotton Supply & Use

11 Selected Countries 08/0909/10Change Net Imports(Million Bales) Mexico1.161.15-0.01 Turkey2.342.770.43 Indonesia2.142.240.10 Net Exports West Africa2.232.15-0.08 Brazil2.021.77-0.25 Australia0.901.430.53

12 Int’l Cotton Supply & Use 08/0909/10Change (Million Bales) Production96.892.9-3.9 Mill Use108.3109.91.5 Loss-2.5 0.0 Ending Stocks54.751.3-3.4 Net Imports11.511.2-0.3

13 US Cotton Exports

14 US Cotton Market

15 US Mill Use Apparent Retail Consumption Down Expiration of China Quotas at End of ‘08 Economic Assistance in Farm Bill

16 US Cotton Retail Use

17 US Textile Imports (2008 Jan-Nov)

18 US Cotton Mill Use

19 Southeast1,923 1,580 -17.8 Mid-South 1,876 1,438 -23.4 Southwest5,205 4,746 -8.8 West292 202 -31.0 ALL UPLAND 9,296 7,965 -14.3 ALL ELS174 142 -18.6 ALL COTTON9,470 8,107 -14.4 2009 U.S. Planting Intentions 20082009% Actual Intended Change Total may not add due to rounding. Thousand Acres

20 US Cotton Production * National Average Abandonment Rate: 9.4% ** National Average Yield: 834 lbs./harvested acre

21 US Cotton Supply & Use 08/0909/10Change (Million Bales) Production13.0412.76-0.28 Mill Use4.103.90-0.20 Exports11.5011.18-0.32 Ending Stocks7.505.19-2.31

22 Summary

23 World Cotton Supply & Use

24 World Stocks/Use & A Index

25 Recap 2008/09 – Uncommon Outcomes –Lower Production –Reduced Demand due to Economic Situation –Prices Fall 2009/10 – Uncertain Opportunities –Lower Area & Production –Demand Recovery Depends on General Economy –Decline in Stocks, but…

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