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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook March 2010 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council.

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Presentation on theme: "U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook March 2010 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council."— Presentation transcript:

1 U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook March 2010 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

2 Macroeconomic Environment

3 Real GDP Growth in Selected Countries

4 U.S. Cotton Supply

5 December Cotton Futures Cents per Pound

6 December Corn Futures Cents per Bushel

7 November Soybean Futures Cents per Bushel

8 Southeast1,891 2,123 12.2 Mid-South 1,627 1,764 8.4 Southwest5,243 5,718 9.1 West247 312 26.6 ALL UPLAND 9,008 9,916 10.1 ALL ELS142 176 24.4 ALL COTTON9,149 10,093 10.3 Southeast1,891 2,123 12.2 Mid-South 1,627 1,764 8.4 Southwest5,243 5,718 9.1 West247 312 26.6 ALL UPLAND 9,008 9,916 10.1 ALL ELS142 176 24.4 ALL COTTON9,149 10,093 10.3 2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings 20092010% Actual Estimated* Change Actual Estimated* Change 20092010% Actual Estimated* Change Actual Estimated* Change Thousand Acres *2010 NCC Planting Intentions Survey *2010 NCC Planting Intentions Survey

9 Southeast765 859 12.2 Mid-South 658 714 8.4 Southwest2,122 2,314 9.1 West100 126 26.6 ALL UPLAND 3,645 4,013 10.1 ALL ELS57 71 24.4 ALL COTTON3,703 4,085 10.3 Southeast765 859 12.2 Mid-South 658 714 8.4 Southwest2,122 2,314 9.1 West100 126 26.6 ALL UPLAND 3,645 4,013 10.1 ALL ELS57 71 24.4 ALL COTTON3,703 4,085 10.3 2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings 20092010% Actual Estimated* Change Actual Estimated* Change 20092010% Actual Estimated* Change Actual Estimated* Change Thousand Hectares *2010 NCC Planting Intentions Survey *2010 NCC Planting Intentions Survey

10 U.S. Cotton Production *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections

11 U.S. Cotton Supply *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections with stocks adjusted to reflect March WASDE

12 U.S. Cotton Demand

13 Net Domestic Fiber Consumption

14 Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption

15 Components of Retail Cotton Consumption

16 U.S. Cotton Textile Imports

17 U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports

18 U.S. Trade With Mexico

19 U.S. Trade with CBI

20 U.S. Imports from China

21 U.S. Cotton Mill Use (Calendar Year, Million Bales)

22 U.S. Cotton Mill Use (Crop Year, Million Bales) *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections

23 U.S. Cotton Production & Use *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections

24 The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports

25 China Cotton Supply & Use

26 World Cotton Production *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections

27 World Fiber Mill Use *PCI

28 Fiber Prices

29 World Cotton Mill Use *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections

30 Foreign Cotton Production & Use

31 U.S. Cotton Exports *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections

32 World Cotton Ending Stocks

33 Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)

34 U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks6.343.20 Production12.4016.00 Imports0.010.00 Total Supply18.7419.20 Mill Use3.503.40 Exports12.0012.60 Total Offtake15.5016.00 Ending Stocks3.203.20 Stocks-to-Use Ratio20.6%20.0% 2009/10e*2010/11p* *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections with stocks adjusted to reflect March WASDE

35 U.S. Supply and Demand Million Metric Tons Beginning Stocks1.380.70 Production2.703.49 Imports0.000.00 Total Supply4.084.18 Mill Use0.760.74 Exports2.612.75 Total Offtake3.383.49 Ending Stocks0.700.70 Stocks-to-Use Ratio20.6%20.0% 2009/10e*2010/11p* *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections with stocks adjusted to reflect March WASDE

36 Beginning Stocks62.4251.41 Production102.24113.50 Imports34.3937.00 Mill Use115.70118.50 Exports34.4037.00 Ending Stocks51.4148.91 Stocks-to-Use Ratio44.4%41.3% Beginning Stocks62.4251.41 Production102.24113.50 Imports34.3937.00 Mill Use115.70118.50 Exports34.4037.00 Ending Stocks51.4148.91 Stocks-to-Use Ratio44.4%41.3% World Supply and Demand Million Bales 2009/10e*2010/11p* *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections with stocks adjusted to reflect March WASDE

37 Beginning Stocks13.6011.20 Production22.2724.73 Imports7.498.06 Mill Use25.2125.82 Exports7.498.06 Ending Stocks11.2010.66 Stocks-to-Use Ratio44.4%41.3% Beginning Stocks13.6011.20 Production22.2724.73 Imports7.498.06 Mill Use25.2125.82 Exports7.498.06 Ending Stocks11.2010.66 Stocks-to-Use Ratio44.4%41.3% World Supply and Demand Million Metric Tons 2009/10e*2010/11p* *e = USDA estimates, p = USDA 2010 Ag Outlook projections with stocks adjusted to reflect March WASDE

38 Merchants Ginners Cottonseed Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers


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