1. November 2011 It’s growth, educators: Know thy impact John Hattie University of Melbourne Optimism in Challenging Times Northern regional conference - Lorne

2. The dilemmas of democracy and school leadership. Public Perceptions of Schools

3. Democracy... “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that point on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship” Alexander Tytler (1834).

4. The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school 1990-2000’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre 2010 --All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

5. The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school 1990-2000’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre 2010 --All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

6. The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school 1990-2000’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre 2010 --All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

7. The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school 1990-2000’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre 2010 --All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

8. The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school 1990-2000’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre 2010 --All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

9. The pendulum swings in educational leadership PoliticalMarketBureaucraticSocialPedagogicalImpact Pre 1980's High at school High at centre Low at centre High at school Late 80'sIncreased Move to parents (but not realised) Reduced at centre Higher at schools Move more to schools High at school 1990-2000’sDominant Moving even more to parents Even higher at schools Moving to Centre Move to schools Moving to centre 2010 --All in centre Dominant by parentsAll in schools Even more to Centre All in schools Strong at centre School Regions Department Centre

10. The debates about SES  the tail, &  the gap

11. Reading distribution

13. Reading distribution (N=126,424)

14. Victoria Reading: Up to Year 12 vs. Post Secondary parental education

15. AUSTRALIA’S performance over time

16. So to the Northern Region  There are 1574 schools in Victoria and 192 in Northern Region

17. Reading

18. Writing

19. Numeracy

20. GROWTH  But what about the growth  First – let us set some expectations  Synthesis of meta-analyses  NAPLAN across Oz 2007+

21. Concept of effect-sizes DecreasedEnhancedZero 0

22. The typical influence on achievement  900+ meta-analysis  55,000 studies, and  240+ million students

23. Effect on Achievement over time? Decreased Enhanced Zero 0 Typical Effect Size 1.0.40

24. Distribution of effects

27. Transformational Instructional Leadership…

28. Transformational Instructional  Set the vision, school goals, the expectations  Instructional support  Monitoring school activity  Buffering staff from external demands  Ensures that staffing is fair and equitable  Easily accessible to students and staff  Secures a high degree of autonomy for the staff  makes several formal classroom observations each year  interprets test scores with teachers  Insists teachers collaborate the teaching program across grades  insists teachers expect high proportions of their students to do well on achievement outcomes  insists and knows that class atmosphere in this school is generally very conducive to learning for all students.

29. Remarkable!

31. Naplan

32. Growth over time ALL =. 40 Year 3-5 =.54 Year 5-7 =.35 Year 7-9 =.26 ReadingWritingSpelling GrammarNumeracy

34. Average (purple) and Growth (red)

35. The scene is set We can expect.4 per year Or.8 over two years

36. Effect sizes for background

37. Growth comparisons  Males and female growth similar 0.05  LOTE higher than non-LOTE0.13  Indigenous growth similar 0.04  Lower parental occupation higher growth than upper 0.11

38. Where does WMR sit? - Mean status

39. Relative to SES EMRSMRNMRBSWGIPGMPLMRHMEWMR SES ranking 123456789

40. Relative to SES EMRSMRNMRBSWGIPGMPLMRHMEWMR SES ranking 123456789 Growth 123678594

41. Growth effects

42. Be wary about status not progress Gonski Report Linking funding to outcomes Reference schools are those where at least 80 per cent of students are achieving above the national minimum standard, for their year level, in both reading and numeracy, across each of the three years 2008 to 2010 (p. 157).

43. A profile of NMR Growth ES% students >.80 NorthernVictoriaNorthernVictoria Reading0.66 40%43% Writing0.550.5339%41% Numeracy 0.74 44%47% No. of schools with Reading, Writing, Numeracy >.80 NorthernVictoria None 24%25% One 36%35% Two 28% Three 12%

44. Great vs. Low Growth Schools ReadingWritingNumeracy Low 10.150.170.13 Low 20.200.150.25 Low 30.200.210.11 Low 40.270.450.07 Low 50.210.260.15 ReadingWritingNumeracy High 10.800.400.64 High 20.520.680.64 High 30.660.460.71 High 40.650.600.73 High 50.620.700.70

45. The Low & High Growth Northern Schools

46. Relation to SES  It is the case that there is a positive correlation between Achievement score and SFO SFO and Achievement

47.  But no relation between SES and Growth Correlation

48. Calculating PROGRESS effect-sizes

50. A disposition to asking … How do I know this is working? How can I compare ‘this’ with ‘that’? What is the merit and worth of this influence on learning? What is the magnitude of the effect? What evidence would convince you that you are wrong? Where is the evidence that shows this is superior to other programs? Where have you seen this practice installed so that it produces effective results? Do I share a common conception of progress? The Leader as Evaluator – Know thy impact

51. Expectations – Christine Rubie-Davies -- University of Auckland Low expectationHigh expectation Effects = -.03 to.20Effects =.50 to 1.44 Expect low performance, see low performance, and this reinforces their views about low performance Expect improvement, see the errors, and seek negative evidence to enact improvement Intelligence is fixedIntelligence is malleable Facilitators, constructivists, socializers Director, active change agent, academic instructor Great differences between students in classLower differences between students in class Some expected to improveAll expected to improve Differentiated activities in classLess differentiated activities in class See low effort, class behaviour, in-class relationships, try hard See confidence, motivation, persistence, and attitude to work Males - performance orientationFemales - mastery orientation More in higher decile schoolsMore in lower decile schools

52. The Leader Mantra 1.Decide where & what impact one wants. 2.Collaborate with all to Know thy impact 3. Ensure there are the resources to know and have impact 4.Success when thy has above average impact The Teacher Mantra Analyse, Intervene, Evaluate Levers of Change

54. My Mindframes I am an evaluator I am a change agent I am a seeker of feedback I use dialogue more than monologue I enjoy challenge I have high expectations for all I welcome error I promote the language or learning I am a cooperative and critical planner I use learning intentions & success criteria I aim for surface & deep outcomes I acknowledge prior achievement and attitudes I set high expectation targets I feed the gap in student learning I am an adaptive learning expert I create trusting environments I know the power of peers I use multiple strategies I know when and how to differentiate I foster deliberate practice & concentration I know I can develop confidence to succeed I am receiver of feedback I know how to use the three feedback questions I know how to use the three feedback levels I give and receive feedback I monitor and interpret my learning/ teaching

55. It’s growth, educators: Know thy impact jhattie@unimelb.edu.au