1. Andrew J. Pershing, Cornell University Barbara A. Bailey, University of Illinois Loretta O’Brien, NOAA NEFSC Jon K. T. Brodziak, NOAA NEFSC Charles H. Greene, Cornell University Jack Jossi, NOAA NEFSC C limate-based A ssessment & F orecasting for E cosystems in the Gulf of Maine

2. Acknowledgements Hydrographic Data –Bedford Institute of Oceanography, Bedford, NS Funding –NOAA Coastal Ocean Program, “Synthesis and Forecasting” –NSF grant for US participation in ICES

3. Outline Motivation –Applied questions –Climate variability and ecosystems Climate variability in the Gulf of Maine –NAO--Slope Water-- Calanus –Regime shift in the Gulf of Maine Management implications

4. Motivation Applied questions: –How large is population X? How is it changing? –Presence/absence of X –Quality of ecosystem services Photo courtesy NEFSC Photo courtesy Cornell Bioacoustics Program

5. Motivation Applied questions: –How large is population X? How is it changing? –Presence/absence of X –Quality of ecosystem services In most cases, we know the answer for mean conditions –Need information on variability Photo courtesy NEFSC Photo courtesy Cornell Bioacoustics Program

6. Physical Variability Interdecadal climate comes in two flavors: –Interannual ENSO NAO –Regime shift PDO

7. Physical Variability Interdecadal climate comes in two flavors: –Interannual ENSO NAO –Regime shift PDO Goal is to forecast

8. Physical Variability Interdecadal climate comes in two flavors: –Interannual ENSO NAO –Regime shift PDO Goal is to forecast Goal is to detect

9. Climate Variability & the Gulf of Maine Labrador Sea Gulf of Maine Gulf Stream Coupled Slope Water System

10. Gulf of Maine Climate Variability NAO RSW Temp. Calanus finmarchicus 1-2 yr 6 mo

11. Gulf of Maine Climate Variability NAO RSW Temp. Calanus finmarchicus Lags support forecasts –processes tied to RSW Temp? –processes tied to Calanus abundance? Right whale reproduction 1-2 yr 6 mo

12. Gulf of Maine Climate Variability NAO-Slope Water- Calanus is nice, but –just one mode of physical variability –just one species Ecosystem based management requires an ecosystem-wide view

13. Gulf of Maine Climate Variability NAO-Slope Water- Calanus is nice, but –just one mode of physical variability –just one species Ecosystem based management requires an ecosystem-wide view –So, back to the CPR!

14. Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine Calanus finmarchicus

15. Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine Calanus finmarchicus Centropages typicus

16. Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine Calanus finmarchicus Centropages typicus Oithona spp.

17. Regime Shifts in the Gulf of Maine Calanus finmarchicus Centropages typicus Oithona spp. Pseudocalanus spp.

18. Survival (R/SSB) of 3 stocks was significantly different between 1980’s and 1990’s Management Implications Georges Bank Haddock GoM Witch Flounder GoM Yellowtail Flounder

19. Conclusions Two patterns in Gulf of Maine zooplankton community: –NAO-Slope Water- Calanus –Regime shift Both patterns are potential management tools Future Work –What’s driving the regime shifts? Nonlinear time series analysis