Presentation on theme: "Ocean variability to ecosystem links in the Northern California Current."— Presentation transcript:
Ocean variability to ecosystem links in the Northern California Current
The PDO and salmon survival correlate in the NCC Slide: W.T. Peterson
Copepod species composition shifts seasonally with interannual anomalies: Hooff and Peterson 2006
-2 0 1 2 CCI score 1998200020022004200620081996 PC1 of copepods CCI Timeseries Oregon “Copepod Community Index” = CCI Ordination Axis 1 scores -2 0 1 2 CCI score WarmCold Warm Cold Monthly anomalies 1998200020022004200620081996 PDO:CCI correlation R = 0.5, p<0.01
Calanus Warm years Cold years Copepod Community relates to salmon survival:
Vancouver Island Central Oregon Central California Southern California Anomalies in zooplankton species groups show coherence along the Pacific US coast:
Synchrony among North East Pacific time series (Mackas and Beaugrand 2010) CalCOFI stratification from McGowan et al. 2003 BC/OR (British Columbia/Oregon) from Mackas et al. 2004 CA (California) from Rebstock (2002) and Lavaniegos & Ohman (2003) Kuroshio region (KUR) from Nakata & Hidaka (2003) KOR (Korean coastal water) from Rebstock & Kang (2003 Arrows indicate timing of major shifts within each region
170160150140130120 110 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 170160150140130120 110 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 PDO - Cold PhasePDO - Warm Phase Climate-Forcing Hypothesis: Basin-scale circulation links the PDO to local ecosystem change. Strub, modification of Chelton and Davis, 1982
Basin-scale control of ecosystems? E. Di Lorenzo J. Keister A. Thomas PT Strub WT Peterson S. Bograd P. Franks F. Schwing K. Chaak A. Bracco International collaborators: Japanese: (Chiba, Sasai, Sagaki, Tagushi, Ishidi, Nonaha), Chilean: (Escribano, Hormazabal, Pizarro, Rutllait, Montecino); Canadian (Mackas, Foreman, Pena, Crawford)
The test of the transport hypothesis Compare modeled transport to zoop. observations Nested ROMS model http://www.myroms.org/)http://www.myroms.org/ 10 km resolution 30 vertical layers boundary conditions from World Ocean Atlas climatology nudged at open boundaries forced by NCEP winds and SST 1950-2008 Passive tracers released continuously along the 4 regional domain boundaries (NORTH, SOUTH, EAST, WEST) with 12-month decay scales. Time series integrated over 1x2 degree region centered on zooplankton observations.
Passive tracers capture the seasonality in advection: Winter Spring Summer Fall East West South North particle concentration
From EAST From SOUTH From NORTH From WEST 195519651975198519952005 -2 0 1 2 3 -3 -2 0 1 2 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 Model hindcast CCI = NORTH tracer + SOUTH tracer + EAST tracer + WEST tracer + ε Passive Tracer Time Series Keister et al. 2011
199820002002200420062008 R = 0.36 Model hindcast CCI Observed CCI (5 year lowpass) R = 0.95 Model hindcast CCI Observed CCI 199820002002200420062008 (5 year lowpass) 19601970198019902000 R = 0.9 Model hindcast CCI Model PDO Keister et al. 2011 Advective control of zooplankton communities?
1. Diapause transport in the CCS Data re-analysis Divided Northeast Pacific into 6 ‘natural’ regions Investigated patterns of retention and export between these regions California Coast Northern California Coast Oregon Coast Washington Coast British Columbia Coast Gulf of Alaska
1. Diapause transport in the CCS Seed Latitude Diapause Emergence Latitude Connectivity Plot for All Diapausing Copepods, 1996-2007
1. Diapause transport in the CCS Seed Latitude Diapause Emergence Latitude Connectivity Plot for Particles left year round at 10m depth, 1996-2007
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