1. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 Novel frameworks for understanding the drivers of catchment scale water balance; experiences from the Aquadapt and Virtualis projects. Paul Jeffrey School of Water Sciences Cranfield University UK.

2. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 1.Aquadapt – coevolutionary model (Norgaard, Tainter, Holling, Gunderson et. al.) How robust / credible is the analogy when ported to natural resources management ? 3.Virtu@lis – ICT tools to support participative planning (O’Connor, Ravetz) Can we design accessible ICT tools to support participative planning through social learning ? Are there generic concepts in the designs which have wider potential ? Three projects to review

3. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 Strategic tools to support adaptive, integrated water resource management under changing utilisation conditions at catchment level: A coevolutionary approach. www.aquadapt.net The ‘Aquadapt’ Project

4. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 Coupled processes ?

5. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 Changing opportunity spaces

6. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 How is ‘Aquadapt’ different ?  Focused on transition - Adaptive responses to increases in water stress (in terms of both quantity and quality)  Well bounded and largely disciplinary focused workpackages – the science is not obscured by excessive cross-disciplinary baggage !  Includes assessment of theoretical structure adopted – ‘co- evolutionary processes’.  Accepts that appropriate policy responses to water stress might involve economic, social, structural or governance elements – i.e. the answer might not be to do with water !

7. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 Water Strategy Management Prof. D. Assimacopoulos Dpt. of Chemical Engineering, NTUA, Greece MEDIS Prof. Manfred Lange Centre for Environmental Research University of Münster, Germany ARID Cluster Dr. Phoebe Koundouri, University of Reading, UK http://arid.chemeng.ntua.gr/ conducts and disseminates research on Integrated Water Resources Management and Strategies for environments which are under water stress. AQUADAPT Dr. Paul Jeffrey School of Water Sciences, Cranfield University, UK.

8. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 Application of Multi-Media & Virtual Reality tools to support wider participation in natural resource management. Principles & practice of design, use & evaluation. Focussed on a model of social learning. Supporting the UK EA ‘Catchment Abstraction Management Strategy’ (CAMS) process: –Regional abstraction and discharge licensing. –Issue raising and consultation. –Stakeholder ‘sustainability appraisal’ of options. The Virtu@lis project

9. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 a virtual visit based on a stretch of the Great Ouse river in Bedfordshire. Users will be able to navigate across the catchment, visiting sites of significance with regard to water management. This element of the project is being coordinated with an ongoing Catchment Abstraction Management Strategy process managed by the Environment Agency. a scenario generator which allows users to explore the impact of their management preferences on the water environment. a personal barometer through which the user can gauge the impact of lifestyle choices and household behaviour on water resource availability. a multi-player game which provides an opportunity for users to learn about water issues through a linked gaming environment. VIRTU@LIS platforms

10. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 VIRTU@LIS screenshot

11. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 Research gaps I 1.The gaps between policy fields – we understand little of the modifying impact of policy mechanisms in one area of governance on other areas – need for ‘joined up governance’ Collaboration needed with governance & regulatory bodies Tensions between ‘sustainable X’ 2.Sustainable water livelihoods at catchment scale – evaluation of the water carrying capacity of a catchment based on renewable water availability – envisioning and trade-off analysis to identify specific industry – agriculture – environment – society water use configurations. South – North knowledge transfer … scenario building Focus on inter-community resource management 3.Policy mechanism change –the effectiveness of different policy mechanisms (e.g. pricing, education, regulation) is significantly influenced by social and cultural contexts. The ways in which issues of legitimacy, trust, and social capacity (the ability of communities to respond to policy mechanisms) impact on policy mechanism change are poorly understood. More involvement from social sciences Lessons from NIS region

12. School of Water Sciences European Water Scenarios – Brussels June 2003 Research gaps II 4.Lock-in – Adaptive management practices require deeper understanding of how and why communities become locked in to ‘ways of managing water’ …. and more importantly, under what conditions this is beneficial and when is it not + how can they break out of such relationships. Lessons from history 5.Water value profiles through catchments – the economic, social and cultural value of water to different user groups will vary across a catchment as a function of water quality and availability – can economic value be traded off against social or cultural value ? can we configure water supply systems to add value ? Will require extension of hydrology based IWRM modelling More understanding of cultural significance of water – lifestyles ? 6.Strategic water reuse analysis – can we match supply and demand points up so that treatment and transport costs are minimised ? Spatial logistics type problem 7.‘End game’ management – what do we do when there is no more water ? Lessons from history Radical social & technological responses