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Governors’ Ethanol Coalition June 21, 2004 Madison, Wisconsin James Kendell Energy Information Administration Outlook for Gasoline.

Published byLeona McDonald Modified over 8 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "Governors’ Ethanol Coalition June 21, 2004 Madison, Wisconsin James Kendell Energy Information Administration Outlook for Gasoline."— Presentation transcript:

1 Governors’ Ethanol Coalition June 21, 2004 Madison, Wisconsin James Kendell Energy Information Administration james.kendell@eia.doe.gov Outlook for Gasoline and Fuel Ethanol Through 2025

2 Average Prices of Gasoline and Ethanol at the Plant Gate (2002 dollars per gallon) Conventional RFG CARB Ethanol

3 Miles Traveled and Miles Per Gallon for Light-Duty Vehicles (percent growth year-by-year) Miles Miles Per Gallon

4 U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day) Transportation Industrial Residential and commercial Electricity generation History Projections

5 Consumption of Petroleum Products, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day)

6 Projected U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Fuel, 1990-2025 (million metric tons)

7 U.S. Petroleum Consumption and Production, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day) History Projections Consumption Production Reference High price Reference Low price

8 Never used RFG with MTBE Used RFG with MTBE States That Ban MTBE

9 U.S. Oxygenate Consumption, 1993-2025 (million gallons) HistoryProjections RFS Schedule Ethanol for Gasoline Blending Ethanol for E85 MTBE

10 Sales of Advanced Technology Light-duty Vehicles by Fuel Type, 2010 and 2025 (thousand vehicles sold)

11 The Chemistry of Ethanol Production Corn GlucoseEthanol Amylase Enzyme Yeast Cellulose 5- and 6- carbon sugars Cellulase Enzyme or Strong Acid Ethanol Genetically Modified Yeast or Bacteria

12 Corn and Cellulose Ethanol Production, 2010-2025 (million gallons per year) Corn Cellulose

13 Economic Hurdles to Cellulose Ethanol Commercialization Iogen estimates that a commercial plant using its technology would cost $4.80 per annual gallon of capacity to build. (Wall Street Journal, April 21, 2004) A dry-grind corn ethanol plant can be built for about $1 per annual gallon of capacity. Banks are reluctant to back petroleum refinery projects that cost more than $1 per annual gallon of capacity. Cellulose ethanol producers may eventually face competition from electric generators for supplies of crop residues and other cellulosic materials.

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