1. Peak Oil – Myth or Menace? Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton Chautauqua Course, May 24-26, 2007

2. US-48 Production

3. Alaska to the Rescue? US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov

4. Many Countries Have Peaked! US UK Indonesia Iran? http://www.bp.com Venezuela

5. Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)

6. OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates

7. Gaussian

8. Gaussian Fit to US Production

9. Peak Models BP USGS

10. Cumulative Discovery and Production

11. US Geological Survey Estimates www.ihs.com Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002)

12. Rough Outline of the Future USGS published reserve estimates in 1998 USGS published reserve estimates in 1998 EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2030 A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2030 Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources

13. Logistic Curve 1980 Prediction “Economic” argument: We will always find more and increase ultimate recovered amount = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ ) dQ dt

14. Problem with Logistic Curves At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar. There are too many free fitting parameters

15. The Point Remains …

16. Hubbert Linearization http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568 Q (Gbbl) P = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ )

17. HL - Texas

18. HL - World

19. One Prediction (1998) R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdfhttp://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

20. Duncan and Youngquist Predictions Peaked prior to 1997 14 countries Recovered from peak after 1997 0 countries Predicted to peak 1998-2005 16 countries Actually peaked between 1998-2005 11 countries Predicted to peak after 2005 13 countries Predicted to peak after 2005, but have already peaked 2 countries

21. Finding Norways R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf

22. Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert” 2/3 !

23. Keep Watching…

24. Summary Believe “official predictions” Believe “official predictions” Gaussian fitting Gaussian fitting Logistic model Logistic model Cumulative Cumulative Yearly Yearly Linearization Linearization Country-by-country watch Country-by-country watch Monthly data Monthly data