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Why Events Overseas Matter to Gasoline Retailers and Consumers.

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Presentation on theme: "Why Events Overseas Matter to Gasoline Retailers and Consumers."— Presentation transcript:

1 Why Events Overseas Matter to Gasoline Retailers and Consumers

2 WTI and Retail Gasoline Prices Generally Move In Unison

3 What Comprises the Gasoline Price? Spot Gasoline Price Global Regional

4 Main Reasons Behind Gasoline Price Spikes High Crude Oil Prices, and/or Regional Gasoline Infrastructure Problems, and/or High Demand with Low Inventories

5 Analysis of 3 Recent Gasoline Price Spikes Midwest Price Spike of 2001 March 2003 Price Spike August 2003 Price Spike

6 Analysis of 3 Recent Gasoline Price Spikes Midwest Price Spike of 2001 March 2003 Price Spike August 2003 Price Spike

7 Low Total OECD Oil Stocks* Keep Market Balance Tight *Total includes commercial and government stocks. Source: Energy Information Administration, April 2001.

8 OPEC 10 Production Cut in First Half of 2001 Source: Energy Information Administration.

9 Quarterly World Oil Demand Growth from Previous Year Source: Energy Information Administration.

10 Overview of Market Fundamentals Tight balance in global petroleum market Tight balance means low inventories Low inventories mean upward price pressure and potential for increased volatility Exacerbating regional volatility factors –Refinery system runs near maximum during summer –U.S. distribution system showing signs of strain -- local ramifications –Increasing distinct types of gasoline All of the above contributing to prices this year

11 Midwest RFG Prices Rise Due to Tight Supplies 2000 2001 Source: Reuters database.

12 Product Moves By Pipeline & Barge From Refining Centers Imports

13 Dependence on Distant Supply Can Increase Response Time Source: Energy Information Administration.

14 Analysis of 3 Recent Gasoline Price Spikes Midwest Price Spike of 2001 March 2003 Price Spike August 2003 Price Spike

15 Early 2003 Gasoline Price Rise Due to Crude Oil Price Increase Source: Energy Information Administration.

16 OPEC 10 Production Much Lower in December and January Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

17 Crude Oil Production for Venezuela and Saudi Arabia Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

18 OECD Commercial Oil Stocks Remain Below Average in 2003 Source: International Energy Agency database, January 2003 and EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2003.

19 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2003. 2003

20 U.S. Total Gasoline Inventories Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2003. 2003

21 Analysis of 3 Recent Gasoline Price Spikes Midwest Price Spike of 2001 March 2003 Price Spike August 2003 Price Spike

22 Crude Oil Not a Reason for Gas Price Increase in Aug. 2003 Source: Energy Information Administration.

23 Reasons Behind August 2003 Gasoline Price Increase Tight Market –Record Gasoline Demand –Low Gasoline Inventories Refinery Outages –Due to Power Blackout in Midwest –California –East Coast Kinder-Morgan Pipeline Rupture in Arizona

24 Gasoline Refinery Production Across Three Regions East Coast West Coast Midwest Source: Energy Information Administration.

25 Gasoline Demand Reached Record Levels in August 2003 Source: Energy Information Administration.

26 U.S. Gasoline Inventories Fell Below Normal in August Monthly Source: Energy Information Administration. Weekly

27 Regular Gasoline Spot Prices Source: Reuters database.

28 Gasoline Price Rise Varied Among Locations Source: American Automobile Association Numbers represent the difference, in cents per gallon, of the average price for retail regular gasoline between Aug. 29, 2003 and Aug. 1, 2003.

29 Important Web Sites From EIA –Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (Prices) –This Week In Petroleum –Weekly Petroleum Status Report –A Primer on Gasoline Prices (an EIA Gasoline Brochure) AAA Prices by State and Locality –(http://www.aaanewsroom.net/Main.asp)


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