1. Continuous Stakeholder Feedback: Methodologies for Improving Adoption and User-friendliness of Climate Variability Forecasts Norman E. Breuer Victor E. Cabrera Peter E. Hildebrand March 2004

2. The Southeast Climate Consortium A multidisciplinary, multi-institutional initiative among the UF, FSU, UM, AU, UG, and UAH for research, extension, education, and training related to climate- based management of agriculture and natural resources.

3. Working at the Interface Forest Reserve Small- scale Farmers Plantation s ClimateWater Agriculture People

4. The Southeast Climate Consortium Immediate Objective Development of a climate-based Decision Support System for farmers available via the Internet

5. The Southeast Climate Consortium Target Audience: The Cooperative Extension Service and through them, to all stakeholders in AL, FL & GA Funding: NOAA - Office of Global Programs and the Risk Management Agency of the U. S.D.A.

6. The SECC Decision Support System Problem with DSSs*: non adoption short-term use Due to: deterministic nature exaggerated expectations other * McCown, et al. 2002 Agricultural Systems 74

7. The Southeast Climate Consortium Florida, Georgia, Alabama Agricultural Production 1.Peanuts 2.Tomato 3. Livestock 4. Potato Water 1.Quality 2.Quantity

8. Users Specific and Diverse needs End products Whole Farm Models Testing Prototype products Participatory Rural Appraisals Participatory Methodology Calibration and Validation Crop models Climate models Participatory Methodology Adapted from Bastidas 2001

9. Feedback Loops Time Adoption With constant interaction among research, extension and farmer, diffusion can “take off” sooner and continue longer Rogers 1995 modified by J. Ashby, pers. Comm. 2003

10. Participatory Rural Appraisal: Sondeo Multidisciplinary team Rapid appraisal Open ended interviews Preliminary insight

11. Participatory Modeling Understanding the farm system Preliminary modeling –LP, Dynamic, etc. Calibration with stakeholders Final modeling Validation with independent stakeholders

12. Working with Farmers

13. Beef Cattle in North Central Florida 38 Ranchers preliminary phase 12 Ranchers validation phase Hypothetical 400-acre ranch Management Options –Stocking rate –Ryegrass planting –Hay purchase Economic Output

14. Beef Cattle in North Central Florida Figure 4. Modeled herd size over 40 years of known climate effect.

15. Beef Cattle in North Central Florida Figure 3. Two-year economic output values for nine scenarios tested and probability of occurrence.

16. Dairy Farms in North Florida 21 farmers preliminary phase 6 focus groups 3 farmers expected validation phase Individual farms modeled: dynamic and LP Novel inclusions –Markov-Chain cow flow modeling –Environmental interaction (nitrate leaching) –Crop models Economic Output

17. Dairy Farms in North West Florida Prototype

18. Dairy Farms in North West Florida

20. Dairy Farms in North West Florida Optimization

21. Conclusions It is possible to develop models with stakeholder involvement With participation: - User friendliness - trustworthiness - better performance with less need for initial input data set Enhances probability of adoption and use of climate-based tools and products Will be added to tools section of SECC DSS