1. Health impacts of existing and planned coal-fired power plants in Thailand Lauri Myllyvirta coal and air pollution specialist Greenpeace

2. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5)

4. Largest environmental health risk in the world Air pollution is responsible for 3 million premature deaths in the world each year, and 160,000 in Southeast Asia (Global Burden of Disease Study) WHO: Air pollution is officially classified as a carcinogen and labeled “a leading environmental cause of cancer deaths”

5. Coal share of pollution emissions in Thailand in 2008 CO2NOxPM10PM2.5SO2 24%26%69%40%70% Source: REAS v2.1

6. Existing coal-fired power plants (gray) and new projects (red)

7. Estimated PM2.5 levels attributable to currently operating coal-fired power plants

8. Projected PM2.5 levels from currently operating coal-fired power plants and new projects

9. Projected ozone levels from currently operating coal-fired power plants

10. Projected ozone levels from currently operating coal-fired power plants and new projects

11. Results: Modeled premature deaths from operating coal-fired plants *Confidence interval (95%): 830-2300

12. Results: Projected premature deaths from coal-fired plants if all planned projects take place *Confidence interval (95%): 2900-7900 2060 5600

13. Case studies: Rayong, Krabi and Thepa

15. Rayong: BLCP and Gheco One Second-largest coal-fired power plant capacity and emissions in Thailand 120km from Bangkok In vicinity of important tourist destinations

16. Methodology Use same data on emissions, location and stack parameters as the Harvard study High-resolution atmospheric modeling with the CALPUFF model recommended by U.S. EPA, using chemistry results from Harvard Health impact assessment using the same data and approach as the Harvard study

17. Domain 150 million people The power plants are located in one of the most densely populated areas in the world

19. Rayong: Modeled daily maximum PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3) 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0

20. Rayong: Modeled annual PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

21. Estimated premature deaths from Rayong plants cases per year Best estimate 95% confidence interval Stroke10060-140 Ischemic heart disease160100-210 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 3021-47 Lung cancer4015-59 Other chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases 3016-37 Total360220-500

23. Krabi: Modeled maximum daily PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5

24. Krabi: Modeled annual PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

25. Projected premature deaths from Krabi over 40 years of operation Best estimate 95% confidence interval Stroke500310-700 Ischemic heart disease770500-1050 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 170102-230 Lung cancer18076-289 Other chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases 13080-182 Total17501060-2450

26. Krabi: Predicted acid rain, kg SO2 / km2 / year 3000 1500 0

27. Krabi: Predicted fly ash fallout, kg / km2 / year 20 60 100

29. Thepa: Modeled maximum daily PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3) 2.0 3.0 1.0

30. Thepa: Modeled annual PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

31. Projected premature deaths from Thepa project over 40 years of operation Best estimate 95% confidence interval Stroke 1150710-1600 Ischemic heart disease 1980500-2690 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 400102-560 Lung cancer 57076-909 Other chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases 31080-432 Total 44201460-6200

32. Thepa: Predicted acid rain, kg SO2 / km2 / year 1300 0

33. Thepa: Predicted fly ash fallout, kg / km2 / year 500 0

34. Health impacts are exacerbated by weak emission standards

35. RE the mainstay of power generation investments Globally, 2014 was the first year when renewable energy use grew more than fossil fuels In U.S. and Europe, majority of new generating capacity is powered by renewable energy; coal is on the decline China’s coal use is falling and all of electricity demand growth is being covered from non-fossil sources, mainly renewable energy

36. Recommendations Set emission standards for existing and new coal-fired power plants that protect public health and are in line with other key developing economies Make emission monitoring mandatory and monitoring results public Assess health impacts for all new projects: the law already requires this but it is never done Re-think coal-based electricity investment plan in light of health impacts, and rapidly improving economics of renewable energy