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欢迎 16 October 2014 CNREC Economic Costs of Air-pollution from the Energy Sector Niels Bisgaard Pedersen, DEA.

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Presentation on theme: "欢迎 16 October 2014 CNREC Economic Costs of Air-pollution from the Energy Sector Niels Bisgaard Pedersen, DEA."— Presentation transcript:

1 欢迎 16 October 2014 CNREC Economic Costs of Air-pollution from the Energy Sector Niels Bisgaard Pedersen, DEA

2 Beijing, The Guardian 14/01/2013 PROGRAM

3 3 Source: OECD Beijing

4 Externalities A cost or benefit that affects a third party who did not chose to incur that cost/benefit Noise, air-pollution, water-pollution, accidents, waiting-time in transportation, visual pollution of the landscape, damage on flora and fauna etc. Local, trans-border and global impacts Irreversible or reversible damage impacts 4

5 Externalities PRIVATE COSTS – observed market costs SOCIAL COSTS – includes damage imposed by harmful air-emissions: Green-house gasses - Global warming SO2 – mortality, morbidity, acid rain, damage agriculture and buildings NOx – increased morbidity/mortality PM2.5 – increased mortality/morbidity Ozone – increased mortality/morbidity 5

6 Consequence an negative externality 6 Price is low and consumption to high, a non-efficient allocation of resources

7 Social Costs - Principle 7 Result: Produce and consume too much conventional and too little wind energy

8 China A Word Bank reports that China’s PM10 health damage represented nearly 700 billion RMB in 2009 or 2.8% of GDP CO2 damage represents 1.0 % of GDP Material damage from air pollution represents 0.5 % of GDP Other studies estimate health related costs to pollution are 6% of GDP in 2005

9 CNREC - DEA Study CNRECs scenario tool CREAM quantifies the direct cost of energy production from the different energy technologies and the emission of harmful gases from combustion of fossil fuels. But the more indirect environmental costs are not quantified. This activity will use methodologies from Europe, meteorological modelling for China and empiric data from China to integrate environmental cost in CREAM. Focus will be on health effect on human health from emission of SO2, NOx, and CO2. CNREC responsible: Xie Xuxuan. DEA responsible: Niels Bisgaard Pedersen. External Assistance Yanxu Zhang, Harvard University

10 Impact Pathway Approach MethodologiesResult Source – Scenarios Emissions of CO2, SO2, SO4, NOx, PM2.5, PM10 etc. Dispersion in the air. Travelling distance possibly chemical reactions in the atmosphere (atmospheric dispersion models) Increase in pollutants concentration at receptor sites (concentration of substances in the air) Dose-response function, exposure-response or concentration-response function Impacts on human health in terms of mortality and morbidity Monetary evaluationEconomic Cost (loss of income, costs for health system) 10

11 11 CNREC – DEA Scenarios 2015 - 2050 CO2 emissions in million ton per year

12 12 CNREC – DEA Scenarios 2015 - 2050 SO2 emissions in million ton per year

13 13 CNREC – DEA Scenarios 2015 - 2050 NOx emissions in million ton per year

14 14 CNREC – DEA Scenarios 2015 - 2050 VOC emissions in million ton per year

15 Atmospheric Dispersion Model An air-quality model for China (GEOS- Chem) Present day meteorological data (2004) and future emission data for 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Spatial allocation based on existing inventories for China

16 Predicted difference in concentration of ozone 2050 REF – MAX RE 16

17 Predicted diffence in concentration of PM2.5 non-dust 2050 - REF – MAX RE 17

18 Predicted diffence in concentration of SO2 2050 REF – MAX RE 18

19 Predicted diffence in concentration of NOx 2050 - REF – MAX RE 19

20 Pollutants and their impacts Primary PollutantSecondary Pollutant Impacts (End- points) Particles Mortality Cardio-pulmonary morbidity SO2 Mortality Cardio-pulmonary morbidity SO4SulphatesLike particles NOx Morbidity (? Not verified) NOxNitratesLike particles NOx+VOCOzoneMortality Morbidity CO Mortality Morbidity Greenhouse Gases None directly (Global warming) 20

21 Impact of harmful air- emissions Estimation of human health impacts based on responsiveness to air-quality Impact Response function ΔMort= y 0 (1-e -βΔC )Pop y 0 is the baseline mortality rate, β is the concentration-response factor, ΔC is the concentration difference of pollutants between RE and REF scenarios, Pop is the exposed population. β is derived from relative risks (RR) estimated in long-term epidemiological studies assuming log-linear relationships between pollutant concentrations and RR

22 Quantification of impact of harmful air- emissions Mortality from Ozone and PM2.5 Ozone a concentration-response factor of 0.52% (0.27%-0.77% as 95% confidence interval) increase in mortality per 10 ppbv increase of ozone (Bell et al., 2004) PM2.5: Mean of four studies over China: 0.35% per 10 μg/m 3 increase and 2.96% per 10 μg/m 3 increase for long term impacts NOx impacts are uncertain and SO2 impacts are relatively small Population and mortality data for each province is based on National Bureau of Statistics of China

23 Avoided number of deaths in China by following Max RE scenario 2015 -2050 23 Avoided death are estimated to 1 750 000 for the period 2015 - 2050

24 Economic valuation of health impact of harmful air- emissions Monetisation according damage costs principles: Mortality Lost income/Willingness To Pay (WTP)/Value of Statistical Life (VSL) VSL willingness to pay for a small reduction in the risk of premature mortality Morbidity Increased illness, hospitalisation, medication, lost working days (respiratory diseases) VSL for China = 1.68 million RMB in 2010 price level Economic Value = 2.9 trillion RMB 2015 – 2050 = 83 billion RMB per year in average

25 Economic costs from premature mortality in Million RMB Difference between REF and MAX RE 25

26 Marginal costs benefits of emission on human health in China - RE scenario +- 10% SO2 RMB per ton Nox RMB per tonVOC RMB per ton 4 80021 9002 700

27 Economic Costs of CO2 emissions SourceCosts of CO2 per tonComment ExternE project25 USD2 700 Emission Trade Systems China 3.6 – 20 USD6 pilot projects Emission Trade System Europe < 1 USDNumber of emission permission too high. Long term forecast 45 USD Environmental Protection Agency 21 USDDamage cost assessment. Recently updated. Recommended

28 Economic Costs of air-pollution Million RMB 28

29 Future Directions 29 UncertaintySolution More pollutants needs analysedPM10 etc. Only mortality and damage from CO2 is included Morbidity, impact in agriculture and material damage should be included Dose – Response functionLong term cohort studies in China Spatial allocation of emission the same in the two scenarios Calculate emissions at a regional level in CREAM Present meteorological conditions for the whole period Feed back between air-pollution and climate change needs to be taken into consideration

30 Internalisation - Policy Taxes and duties on CO2, SO2, Nox to reduce pollution CO2 trading schemes Revenue to support renewable energy deployment wind, solar and biomass High environmental standards for power plants, heavy industry, vehicles and fuels

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