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欢迎 16 October 2014 CNREC Niels Bisgaard Pedersen, DEA

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Presentation on theme: "欢迎 16 October 2014 CNREC Niels Bisgaard Pedersen, DEA"— Presentation transcript:

1 欢迎 16 October 2014 CNREC Niels Bisgaard Pedersen, DEA
Economic Costs of Air-pollution from the Energy Sector Niels Bisgaard Pedersen, DEA

2 PROGRAM Beijing, The Guardian 14/01/2013

3 Beijing Source: OECD

4 Externalities A cost or benefit that affects a third party who did not chose to incur that cost/benefit Noise, air-pollution, water-pollution, accidents, waiting-time in transportation, visual pollution of the landscape, damage on flora and fauna etc. Local, trans-border and global impacts Irreversible or reversible damage impacts

5 Externalities PRIVATE COSTS – observed market costs
SOCIAL COSTS – includes damage imposed by harmful air-emissions: Green-house gasses - Global warming SO2 – mortality, morbidity, acid rain, damage agriculture and buildings NOx – increased morbidity/mortality PM2.5 – increased mortality/morbidity Ozone – increased mortality/morbidity

6 Consequence an negative externality
Price is low and consumption to high, a non-efficient allocation of resources

7 Social Costs - Principle
Result: Produce and consume too much conventional and too little wind energy

8 China A Word Bank reports that China’s
PM10 health damage represented nearly 700 billion RMB in 2009 or 2.8% of GDP CO2 damage represents 1.0 % of GDP Material damage from air pollution represents 0.5 % of GDP Other studies estimate health related costs to pollution are 6% of GDP in 2005

9 CNREC - DEA Study CNRECs scenario tool CREAM quantifies the direct cost of energy production from the different energy technologies and the emission of harmful gases from combustion of fossil fuels. But the more indirect environmental costs are not quantified. This activity will use methodologies from Europe, meteorological modelling for China and empiric data from China to integrate environmental cost in CREAM. Focus will be on health effect on human health from emission of SO2, NOx, and CO2. CNREC responsible: Xie Xuxuan. DEA responsible: Niels Bisgaard Pedersen. External Assistance Yanxu Zhang, Harvard University

10 Impact Pathway Approach
Methodologies Result Source – Scenarios   Emissions of CO2, SO2, SO4, NOx, PM2.5, PM10 etc. Dispersion in the air. Travelling distance possibly chemical reactions in the atmosphere (atmospheric dispersion models) Increase in pollutants concentration at receptor sites (concentration of substances in the air) Dose-response function, exposure-response or concentration-response function Impacts on human health in terms of mortality and morbidity Monetary evaluation Economic Cost (loss of income, costs for health system)

11 CO2 emissions in million ton per year
CNREC – DEA Scenarios CO2 emissions in million ton per year

12 CNREC – DEA Scenarios SO2 emissions in million ton per year

13 NOx emissions in million ton per year
CNREC – DEA Scenarios NOx emissions in million ton per year

14 VOC emissions in million ton per year
CNREC – DEA Scenarios VOC emissions in million ton per year

15 Atmospheric Dispersion Model
An air-quality model for China (GEOS-Chem) Present day meteorological data (2004) and future emission data for 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 Spatial allocation based on existing inventories for China

16 Predicted difference in concentration of ozone 2050 REF – MAX RE

17 Predicted diffence in concentration of PM2
Predicted diffence in concentration of PM2.5 non-dust REF – MAX RE

18 Predicted diffence in concentration of SO2 2050 REF – MAX RE

19 Predicted diffence in concentration of NOx 2050 - REF – MAX RE

20 Pollutants and their impacts
Primary Pollutant Secondary Pollutant Impacts (End-points) Particles Mortality Cardio-pulmonary morbidity SO2 SO4 Sulphates Like particles NOx Morbidity (? Not verified) Nitrates NOx+VOC Ozone Morbidity CO Greenhouse Gases None directly (Global warming)

21 Impact of harmful air- emissions
Estimation of human health impacts based on responsiveness to air-quality Impact Response function ΔMort= y0(1-e-βΔC)Pop y0 is the baseline mortality rate, β is the concentration-response factor, ΔC is the concentration difference of pollutants between RE and REF scenarios, Pop is the exposed population. β is derived from relative risks (RR) estimated in long-term epidemiological studies assuming log-linear relationships between pollutant concentrations and RR

22 Quantification of impact of harmful air- emissions
Mortality from Ozone and PM2.5 Ozone a concentration-response factor of 0.52% (0.27%-0.77% as 95% confidence interval) increase in mortality per 10 ppbv increase of ozone (Bell et al., 2004) PM2.5: Mean of four studies over China: 0.35% per 10 μg/m3increase and 2.96% per 10 μg/m3increase for long term impacts NOx impacts are uncertain and SO2 impacts are relatively small Population and mortality data for each province is based on National Bureau of Statistics of China

23 Avoided number of deaths in China by following Max RE scenario 2015 -2050
Avoided death are estimated to for the period

24 Economic valuation of health impact of harmful air- emissions
Monetisation according damage costs principles: Mortality Lost income/Willingness To Pay (WTP)/Value of Statistical Life (VSL) VSL willingness to pay for a small reduction in the risk of premature mortality Morbidity Increased illness, hospitalisation, medication, lost working days (respiratory diseases) VSL for China = 1.68 million RMB in 2010 price level Economic Value = 2.9 trillion RMB 2015 – 2050 = 83 billion RMB per year in average

25 Economic costs from premature mortality in Million RMB Difference between REF and MAX RE

26 Marginal costs benefits of emission on human health in China - RE scenario +- 10%
SO2 RMB per ton Nox RMB per ton VOC RMB per ton 4 800 21 900 2 700

27 Economic Costs of CO2 emissions
Source Costs of CO2 per ton Comment ExternE project 25 USD 2 700 Emission Trade Systems China 3.6 – 20 USD 6 pilot projects Emission Trade System Europe < 1 USD Number of emission permission too high. Long term forecast 45 USD Environmental Protection Agency 21 USD Damage cost assessment. Recently updated. Recommended

28 Economic Costs of air-pollution Million RMB

29 Future Directions Uncertainty Solution More pollutants needs analysed
PM10 etc. Only mortality and damage from CO2 is included Morbidity, impact in agriculture and material damage should be included Dose – Response function Long term cohort studies in China Spatial allocation of emission the same in the two scenarios Calculate emissions at a regional level in CREAM Present meteorological conditions for the whole period Feed back between air-pollution and climate change needs to be taken into consideration

30 Internalisation - Policy
Taxes and duties on CO2, SO2, Nox to reduce pollution CO2 trading schemes Revenue to support renewable energy deployment wind, solar and biomass High environmental standards for power plants, heavy industry, vehicles and fuels

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