2. Global Developments US & UK doing reasonably well Euro Zone growing well below potential Emerging markets in some difficulty Policy will remain very accomodative in Euro Zone, no pressure on interest rates QE will remain key policy of ECB US rates set to rise very gradually, UK cycle less clear Oil & Commodity prices weak Euro weakness Migration crisis highlights lack of policy coherence at EU level Brexit

3. USD v EURO

4. Sterling v Euro

5. Ireland-Activity Has Surpassed 2007

6. The Irish Economy in 2015 Compelling economic recovery – more broadly based Consumer stronger, but price compression still relevant Strong car sales +30% Strong merchandise exports +19.3% Labour market much better Consumer confidence at 9-year high Tax Revenues +9.6% Construction activity improving Prospects for 2016 positive – but arrogance & complacency dangerous

7. Global Commodity Prices Falling Oil price falling due to a range of factors but all commodities under pressure All Commodities Index -18% YoY Food -13% YoY Metals -27% YoY Oil -42% YoY Slowing demand in China Massive over production

8. UN Food & Agri-Price Index

9. Wheat Price Index

10. US Milk Price Index

11. The ‘White Gold Rush’ in Trouble Fonterra paying <1/2 price 2 years ago Global Dairy Trade Price Index lowest in 10 years WHY? Slowdown in Chinese demand EU quota removal Russian ban on EU imports Chinese output increasing dramatically

12. Some Issues in the Agri Sector At global level ‘weird weather’, retail concentration, energy dependency, global population growth In Ireland: Consumers want cheap food Retail concentration Viewed as a ‘license to print money’ by some Reality is that it is a competitive, low margin business that is very vulnerable to imports and retail domination Greater price volatility a feature of the future

13. Ireland – Agri Output & Input Prices

14. Food Inflation in Ireland

15. Mixed Year for Irish Farmers Agricultural Output Prices -2.2% YoY (August) Cereals 0.0 % YoY Cattle +15.2% Milk -24.2% YoY Fertiliser Prices +0.5% Energy Costs -11.7% Incomes down circa 5% in 2015?

16. Telescopic Loaders

17. New Tractor Sales

18. The Issues Farm incomes under pressure Farming numbers falling – what about number of dealers? Move towards higher power tractors Tight margins Sterling strength Recovery in construction could be important

19. Thank You!