1. Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

2. What is a cause? Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

3. What is a cause? Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. for exercise

4. What is a Cause?

5. Fitting in clothes one size smaller

6. What is a Cause? … because I want to be healthy.

7. What is a Cause? My commitment and will power makes me exercise.

8. What is a Cause?

9. Root Cause Immediate cause Relapse Analyze & Understand Change

10. Cause and Effects Are Events

11. My spouse makes me exercise My spouse reminded me to exercise Causes are Temporary Events

12. All Causes Describe a Mechanism Root cause … Direct cause Effect

13. All Causes Describe a Mechanism Watching a late show Sleeping late Waking up late No exercise before work

14. The Impact of a Cause Is Not Certain

15. Watching a late show Sleeping late Waking up late Exercise before work

16. Causes Increase Likelihood of Effects Vacation Exercise

17. Causes Precede Effects Vacation Exercise

18. Causes Precede Effects Anticipation of going on vacation Exercise

19. Effect Cause Other causes Everything Is Not a Cause

20. Exercise Bike to work Make a bike route Everything Is Not a Cause

21. Exercise Bike to work Everything Is Not a Cause

22. Counterfactual

23. Got up early Phone call No exercise I got up early and almost did my morning exercise before I got interrupted by a call.

24. Counterfactual I could have exercised if I had gotten up early.

25. Counterfactual I would have exercised if I were on vacation.

26. Counterfactual Instead of getting up early to exercise I took my time and made a good breakfast.

27. Counterfactual

28. Get a ballInvite friends Play soccer Get right clothes Causes Working In Concert

29. Sell car and bike to work Give up space and park at far end of the lot Exercise Alternative Causes

30. Take Home Lesson New Thinking

31. Take Home Lesson A cause is an event that occurs sometimes

32. Take Home Lesson Precedes the effect

33. Take Home Lesson Co-occurs frequently with the effect

34. Take Home Lesson Absent cause, absent effect

35. Take Home Lesson Directly leads to the effect

36. Take Home Lesson Describes a mechanism

37. Take Home Lesson Can be modified

38. Take Home Lesson Search for Causes An event that occurs sometimes Frequently precedes the effect Absent causes, absent effect Directly leads to the effect Describes a mechanism Can be modified