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Results for Market Forecast April 2007 Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc All rights reserved.

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Presentation on theme: "Results for Market Forecast April 2007 Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc All rights reserved."— Presentation transcript:

1 Results for Market Forecast April 2007 Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc All rights reserved.

2 Overview U.S. dollar forecast was almost an exact match; gold ended very close to forecast. Our forecasted socioeconomic theme was “Stormy and volatile. Socioeconomic sentiment turning pessimistic.” The associated market movements did not all correspond to the forecast; however market sentiment has begun to change. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

3 U.S. Dollar Index Our best job last month; very close.

4 Gold Futures Not very good first half, extremely good match for net change for the month (Forecast only $3.71 lower than actual).

5 Crude Oil It was tracking so well, until second half of the month.

6 The Stock Market Also looked good… until second half of the month.

7 Beginnings of change of sentiment Observed in CNBC staff commentary changing from an insistence in a positive attitude, to one of resignation to an upcoming “correction.” Price chart appears to have little upside left – at a possible top. This could indicate changed market sentiment.

8 CNBC staff comments 4-30-07 These comments on CBBC morning show display the beginnings of sentiment change from recent euphoria: –“Are investors going to sell in May and go away?” –“Are we headed toward stagflation?” –“Read the article in the WSJ about leveraging if you want to get nervous this morning.” –“There are critical signs that the market is approaching a top.” –“Earnings and growth are decelerating, what’s going well?”

9 Price Charts looking “toppish” S&P (left) and Nasdaq (right) daily charts (data from futuresource)

10 Lessons Learned U.S. Dollar chart is too close to have been “chance,” we are doing something right. The other charts indicate that a review of the methodology is in order to find and reduce sources of error. We are not yet ready to publicly connect stock market forecasts with potential social impact (e.g. “possible geopolitical event”)

11 Conclusion In our last weekly review we had concluded that we should stop doing market forecasting for the time being. After receiving encouragement and suggestions from a few supportive friends, we have decided to continue preparing forecasts on a monthly basis with a few steps added to the forecasting process.

12 Disclaimer A New Story Foundation is not a brokerage firm nor are we professional investment advisors. Please consult the appropriate person/firm for specific investment advice. More information can be found on our website at http://www.anewstory.org.

13 Thanks for your interest.


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