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Market Bias Forecast July 2007 Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc All rights reserved.

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Presentation on theme: "Market Bias Forecast July 2007 Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc All rights reserved."— Presentation transcript:

1 Market Bias Forecast July 2007 Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc All rights reserved.

2 What is a Market Bias Forecast? In researching social instability, A New Story Foundation has developed a highly successful method for forecasting market movement in several key commodities and equity indices. Market Bias is the composite outlook of a quantified estimate of bullish and bearish investors perspectives. July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

3 Market Bias Using a symbol set to represent the collective mood of bullish traders, a story is compiled for the market movement from that perspective. Strength of change is estimated for the entire month and for each time segment. The procedure is then repeated for the bearish perspective. Strength numbers for both bulls and bears are averaged. A price chart / price range is derived from these composite numbers. July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

4 July 2007 – Summary Theme: Extremely volatility! Crude soaring and then down, The Stock Market falls hard after the 4 th of July holiday, the US Dollar joins it within a week. We have modified our forecasting method which could double the previous accuracy to at least 2 out of 3 forecasts 90%+ correct (from 1 out of 3). July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

5 Crude Oil Bullish perspective for July: A bit more, and then profit taking time. Bearish perspective for July: The economy cant sustain these high prices. Overall strength of change is very slightly bearish:-1 (out of max -5) July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

6 Crude Oil - price Crude should continue to climb the first half of the month, with a steep sell-off into August. July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

7 Crude Oil - range September contract expected high 77, low 68, close for a net loss of 3.4% for the month.

8 S&P Index Futures Bullish perspective for July: This cant be the top of the market yet. Bearish perspective for July: The volatility either way makes direction difficult to determine. Overall strength of change is moderately bearish: -2.5 (out of max -5). July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

9 S&P Futures - price If not already peaked, look for a market top in the first week. The market should decline most of the month into August. July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

10 Stock Market Cycles - O Model Alternate, independent method shows observed cycles in the S&P indicating trend turn down in July (the two trend lines peak July 18 th ). July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

11 O Model Composite Note: The O Model forecast indicates timing and direction, but not degree. July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

12 S&P Futures - range Current contract expected high 1545, low 1440, close 1450, with a net loss of 4.4% for the month.

13 U.S. Dollar Index Bullish perspective for June: … but its oversold. Bearish perspective for June: Sell every rally. Overall strength of change is mildly bearish: -2 (out of max -5) July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

14 Dollar Index - price The two forecast versions were divergent– a median is also given for the $. Primary difference is depth of drop in 2 nd week. June 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

15 Dollar Index - range Current contract expected high 82.5, low 81, close 81.4 for a net loss of 0.4%.

16 July 2007 Market Bias Forecast. Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc. Market Bias Summary - volatility This composite shows large changes in the dollar the 1 st and 2 nd week, and Crude between 1 st and 3 rd weeks.

17 Disclaimer The reliability of the forecasts corresponds with our current ability to reliably ascertain and score the collective mood of bullish and bearish investors for each time period under review. A New Story Foundation is not a brokerage firm nor are we professional investment advisors. Please consult the appropriate person/firm for specific investment advice. More information about our research can be found on our website at

18 Thanks for your interest!


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