1. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Transforming the Way We Use Energy Richard A. Bradley, PhD Head, Energy Efficiency and Environment Division International Energy Agency

2. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE CO 2 emissions must approach zero for all stabilization levels, even for 1000ppm which is nearly 3 times current concentrations. LONG-TERM MITIGATION OBJECTIVE IPCC 2001 Source: Adapted from Haroon S. Kheshgi

3. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Other Objectives 198019902000201020202030 Energy Security Economic Growth Bridging the Welfare Gap Environmental Protection

4. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Atmosphere 790 PgC

5. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Mitigation Policy & Technology Capital stock turnover—You don’t kill the “cash cow.” Thus, the margin for learning is the new capital stock market. Increasing marginal cost of rapid deployment. Capital Stock Turnover Rates Source: Adapted from PNL/U of Maryland Early market signals and technology R&D can work together to assist the market transition – Policies and R&D are inseparable!

6. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Are We On Track?

7. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Global Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions In 2030, CO 2 emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario, but are still more than 50% higher than 1990 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 19902000201020202030 million tonnes of CO2 CoalOilGasAlternative Policy ScenarioReference Scenario

8. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Contributory Factors in CO 2 Reduction 2002-2030 Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute more than half & renewables 20% of the reduction in emissions 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 49% 10% 8% 12% 21% OECD 63% 1% 21% 15% Transition economies 67% 7% 17% 4% 5% Developing countries 58% World End-use efficiency gains 7% Fuel switching in end uses 5% Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation 10% Increased nuclear in power generation 20% Increased renewables in power generation

9. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

10. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE The Transition Challenges Near term policy implementation  Energy efficiency Technology Development and Rapid Diffusion Institutional change

11. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Actual Energy Use and Hypothetical Energy Use Without Intensity Reductions, IEA-11 Without 25 years of energy savings, energy consumption would have been almost 50% higher

12. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Projected additional potential savings by end-use for IEA-Europe TWh/year

13. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Key lighting findings: no-policies, current-policies and LLCC-scenarios

14. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Recommended illumination levels vary Source: Market Research on the use of energy-efficient lighting in the commercial sector – C.Kofod et al

15. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Lighting level acceptance – a moving variable?

16. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Policy Challenges for the Future  Considerable potentials for improved energy efficiency still exist, but…  Energy efficiency potential has some of the character of energy reserves.  Public policy efforts are essential to:  Internalise the cost of environmental consequences in energy prices.  Adopt norms and standards.  Stimulate the development of more efficient technologies.  Energy efficiency is not easy, nor glamorous – IT’S THE SMALL THINGS THAT MATTER!

17. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE The G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action It builds the analytical foundation for targeting market failures and applying the appropriate response – for mapping out the energy efficiency potential.  Where are we using energy in industry and how efficiently? – Assessment of energy performance experience.  What policies are in place? – a database on policies, codes and standards by major sector  How can we do better? – analysis and identification of best policy practice. Brings major energy users together in a dialogue.