1. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Gas Transmission Europe 22-23 October 2003, Paris “Upstream Investment and New Transportation Capacities: The Big Challenge” Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency

2. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Fuel Shares in World Primary Energy Demand 2000 9,179 Mtoe 2030 15,267 Mtoe Natural gas takes market share from coal, nuclear power and oil

3. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Exploration and Development Costs vs Proven Reserves by Region, 2002 Middle East Transition economies Asia Africa Latin America OECD North America OECD Europe

4. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE EU Primary Energy Mix Gas & renewables increase their shares in the EU energy mix, at the expense of nuclear power, coal and oil 2000 2030 1,456 Mtoe 1,811 Mtoe

5. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE EU Net Imports of Gas by Origin The Middle East and Africa gain market share in EU 2000 2030 187 bcm632 bcm

6. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Changing Gas Market: Growing Use of Imported Gas More Cross-Border Trade Increased Role for LNG Globalisation of Gas Trade

7. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

8. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Annual Gas Capacity Additions The bulk of new capacity additions will increasingly be needed simply to replace exhausted wells

9. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Net Gas-Trade Flows, 2030 With global gas reserves concentrated in the Middle East, cross border gas trade becomes more important Bcm

10. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Meeting the Challenges: Generating adequate gas investment to meet projected demand; and Ensuring policy objectives attained

11. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

12. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Governments Should Contribute to: Stable and sound macroeconomic policies Technology improvement Removal of market barriers Transparent and efficient legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks Improving cross border gas trade Standardisation of LNG trade Improving dialogue with gas producers