1. A 2030 framework
for climate and
energy policies
Energy

2. Proposals for the 2030 framework for climate and energy policies
The 2030 framework will build on the 2050 Roadmaps
- Concrete proposals by the end of 2013
2050 Roadmaps
2030 Green Paper
Proposals for the 2030 framework for climate and energy policies
2011
March 2013
September 2013
On-going discussions with Member States, EU institutions and stakeholders

3. Early agreement on the 2030 framework is essential
Increased certainty for Memeber States and reduce regulatory risks for investors
Growth and jobs through demand for efficient and low carbon technologies
Definition of EU ambitions in view of a new international climate change agreement

4. Security of energy supply
The 2030 framework must ensure progress towards three objectives
Sustainability
Security of energy supply
Competitiveness
Reduction of emissions
Diversification of fuels, supply countries and routes
Affordable and competitive prices
Grid Stability
Reduction of energy consumptions
Promotion of new technologies, growth and jobs
Development of alternative energy sources
Adequate energy infrastructures
Improved energy efficinecy
The 2030 policy framework should take into account lesson learned from the 2020 framework and the economic and political context of today

5. The EU is making good progress towards meeting the 2020 RES target - But most Member States are still some distance away
Source: Eurostat
Renewable sources accounted for 12.7% of the EU's energy consumption in 2010

6. EU energy consumption is going down, but 2020 target likely to be missed with current policies
projections
Source: European Commission

7. Challenges in meeting 2020 targets - to be considered in the 2030 framework
Increasing concern about energy import dependency and rising energy prices
Stability and costs of renewables support schemes, impacts on the internal energy market, on grid stability and capital allocation
Need for massive investments in energy transmission and distribution infrastructure, e.g. due to renewables expansion
Differences between Member States in improving energy efficiency; implementation of directives
Current large surplus of ETS allowances, resulting in a low carbon price and low investment incentives
Need for coherence of policy instruments

8. More Energy Efficiency
"No Regrets" options from the Energy Roadmap 2050
More Energy Efficiency
More Renewables
More infrastructures

9. (1) Energy savings throughout the system are crucial
Gross energy consumption (in Mtoe)
Current policy initiatives
Decarbonisation scenarios
Source: European Commission

10. (2) The share of renewables rises steadily over time
Share of renewables in gross final energy consumption (in %)
Source: European Commission
The share of renewables is between 28% and 31% in the decarbonisation scenarios. 10

11. (3) Large investment for power generation is needed ~ 2
(3) Large investment for power generation is needed ~ 2.5 trillion Euros up to 2050.
Cumulative investment expenditure for power generation from 2011 to (in billion €2008)
Source: European Commission
More investments also needed in grid infrastructure, storage, etc. 11

12. Import dependency falls, especially after 2030 with electification of transport
Net energy imports (in Mtoe)
Current policy initiatives
Decarbonisation scenarios
Source: European Commission
All decarbonisation scenarios will reduce the EU’s energy import dependency.

13. Competitiveness & Security of Supply
These are the main issues to be considered for the 2030 framework
Should climate and energy targets be set for 2030?
If so, which ones?
Targets
Which are the most appropriate policy instruments to meet potential new targets for the period up to 2030?
How can Research and Innovation best support the 2030 framework?
Instruments
How can EU policies take account of international developments? Eg. Climate negotiations
How can internationally competitive and affordable energy prices be ensured?
Competitiveness & Security of Supply
How can an equitable distribution of efforts be ensured among Member States?
How to best consider the different investment capacities of industry sectors and consumer groups?
Effort Sharing

14. Electricity prices – the US is increasing its advantage…
Evolution of end-user electricity prices for industry, taxes excluded
Source: IEA, Energy Prices and Taxes, 4th quarter 2012

15. …in part due to the shale gas boom
- US wholesale prices for gas are 3-4 times lower than in the EU
Source: European Commission 15

16. - "non-energy" component is very significant
End-user electricity prices for households differ substantially between MS
- "non-energy" component is very significant
Source: Eurostat

17. Lower differences between MS for industry end-user prices
Source: Eurostat

18. Building on the past towards the future….!
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
11/2010
Commission Communication on the
Energy 2020 Strategy
03/2006
Green Paper on a future common European Energy Policy
01/2007
Commission proposal for 2020 climate and energy package
12/ 2008
Head of State and Government reached agreement on the package
12/2011
Commission Communication
Energy Roadmap 2050
03/2006
Green Paper
More concrete
proposals for the
2030 framework
04/2009
RES Directive
06/2011
Energy Efficiency Directive
Window of opportunity
2015
Global Climate Change
Agreements

19. Concrete steps towards the 2030 framework in 2013
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Jun.
Jul.
Aug
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Adoption of the Green Paper
consultation procedure
22 May
European Council
22-24 April
Council meetings
Update of reference scenario
Impact Assessment
Assessment of responses to
the consultation
Commission proposals for
the 2030 framework

20. Back up

21. GAP Progress towards the 2020 Energy Savings target 2009 20% objective
1678 Mtoe
20%
objective
2009
1842 Mtoe
business as
usual 2007
2020
Projections from 2007
Projections from 2009
20% EE objective
1474 Mtoe
Primary energy consumption*, Mtoe
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
2005
2010
2015
GAP
Source: European Commission
* Gross inland consumption minus non-energy uses

22. The share of renewables rises steadily over time
Share of renewables in primary energy consumption (in %)
Source: European Commission 22

23. Source of data: Eurostat
Retail electricity prices paid by households and industry in 2012
Note: Euro/kWh, first half of 2012, consumption bands DC and IC, all taxes included
Source of data: Eurostat