1. Factors contributing to variability in pCO 2 and omega in the coastal Gulf of Maine. J. Salisbury, D. Vandemark, C. Hunt, C. Sabine, S. Musielewicz and others

2. Terms for discussion: pCO 2 and Ω pCO 2 – partial pressure of carbon dioxide (μatm) = CO 2 concentration / solubility (k) Omega (  ) – Saturation index of the mineral aragonite

3. In terms of Ocean Acidification, the Gulf of Maine is an interesting place. Big salinity range Freshwater endmember qualities Big temperature range Very productive

4. Two freshwater sources: both poorly buffered DFO, Canada

5. Big seasonal temperature range > 15° C /year DFO, Canada

6. During the growing season High CO 2 Low CO 2 From Bozac et al., 2006 (North Sea Example) During the mixing season High CO 2 CO 2 ? Coastal GOM highly productive and….. both the surface and deep waters interact with the atmosphere over short time scales (~annual).

7. UNH time series stations in the Gulf of Maine Data shown is primarily from the CO 2 buoy, with supporting pCO 2 and bottle data from cruise stations (red)

8. xCO2 aragonite Decadal variability: Do we observe OA from increased atm CO 2 ? Preliminary analyses on raw data

9. Mauna Loa was +2.2 ppm y -1 during this time Note that omega and xCO 2 are both positive! SST +0.2°C y -1 xCO 2 Omega_ar Decadal variability from > atm CO 2 ….. maybe! +/- 0.34 +/- 0.001

10. Daily-to-seasonal variability in pCO 2

12. δpCO 2 Observed = δpCO 2 SOL + δpCO 2 AS + δpCO 2 H + δpCO 2 V + δpCO 2 NCP * Analysis of daily-seasonal pCO 2 variability in the context of a time resolving 1-d model Account for daily change in pCO 2 within the mixed layer caused by the processes below: (units, change in pCO 2 d -1 ) Change induced by changes in solubility, f(temp, salinity) Change attributable to air sea flux of CO 2 out/in of mixed layer: f(wind, delta CO 2, MLD) Net change from horizontal mixing: f(pCO 2 gradient *time ) Net change from vertical mixing: f(ΔMLD, diffusion) Biology: the residual of (observed – sum of modeled terms ) Similar to 1d models used by Shadwick et al, 2011 and Gruber et al, 1999

13. Model results: changes in solubility > 3  atm d -1 Air-sea flux > 4  atm d -1

14. Model results: Vertical processes > 4  atm d -1 horizontal processes > 5  atm d -1 Net biological processes> 5  atm d -1

15. High frequency changes: often > 20  atm d -1 individual components >10  atm d -1 All components subject to future change - hydrology - net warming - mixing - wind variability

16. Finally, use daily averaged  pCO 2 output to explore the components of seasonal variability

17. A seasonal cycle of controls on pCO 2

18. Conclusions: Changes in solubility, a-s flux, mixing, NCP, freshwater flux all significant sources of pCO 2 and omega variability!! Results indicate a system that works on an annual frequency, but changes at daily – monthly time step. Unresolved issues: Have not yet characterized the natural variability of the carbonate system in the Gulf of Maine!!! Short term events important (storms, floods, NCP) Effect of circulation and freshwater sourcing. Apparent NCP in early summer?

19. Thanks:

20. Arctic-COLORS is a Field Campaign Scoping Study funded by NASA's Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program that aims to improve understanding and prediction of land-ocean interactions in a rapidly changing Arctic coastal zone, and assess vulnerability, response, feedbacks and resilience of coastal ecosystems, communities and natural resources to current and future pressures.  Deliverable: a comprehensive report to NASA outlining the major scientific questions, and developing the initial study design and implementation concept for this new campaign  Focus on coastal ocean processes  A needed linkage between field campaigns focusing on the Arctic open ocean environment (e.g. ICESCAPE), and field activities focusing on Arctic river processes, chemistry and fluxes (e.g. ABoVE)  Overarching objective: better understand the impact of climate change on land-ocean interactions in the Arctic Ocean, and examine the effect of these changes on river-dominated coastal ocean biology, biogeochemistry, biodiversity. Coastal Land Ocean Interactions Arctic