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National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers.

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Presentation on theme: "National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers."— Presentation transcript:

1 National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction An Overview

2 2 Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services Mission What Does NCEP Do? Seamless Suite of Products and Services Model Dependencies: Basis for How Predictions are Made Computing Capability Student Opportunities

3 3 NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Space Environment Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services. Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service Total FTE: 430 161 Contractors/47 Visitors Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information. Storm Prediction Center

4 4 What Does NCEP Do? ?Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather ?International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts ?Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ?Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather Aviation (Turbulence, Icing) High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

5 5 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center Feedback Distribute Local Offices Local Offices Central Guidance Central Guidance Process Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies, … NCEP

6 6 Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather CPC TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth TPCOPC HPC SECAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 3 NDFD, Days 4 -7 6-10 Day Forecast

7 7 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System TransportationTransportation Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Protection of Life & Property Space Operation RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem State/Local Planning EnvironmentEnvironment Flood Mitigation & Navigation AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control EnergyEnergy CommerceCommerce Benefits HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Model Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS

8 8 GFS CFS GFDL SREF NAM – WRF NMM NOAH Land Surface Model Dispersion Air Quality 2007 NCEP Production Suite Atmospheric Model Dependencies Forecas t Global Data Assimilation WRF-NMM WRF-ARW ETA RSM L D A S Sev Wx WRF-NMM WRF-ARW NAEFS NDASNDAS Rapid Update Cycle Ensemble Hurricane Global Climate Regional MOM3 HYCOM Ocean

9 Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models Cryosphere Atmosphere Ocean Land Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

10 10 Computing Capability Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) Primary Weather $13.9 M Primary Climate $5.3 M Backup $7.2 M Total: $26.4 M Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) Backup located in Fairmont, WV 3x upgrade scheduled to be operational January, 2007

11 11 Student Employment Programs at NOAA Student Educational Experience Program (SEEP) –Student Career Experience Program (SCEP) - SCEP is a program that provides experience that is directly related to the student’s educational program and career goals. SCEP replaces the Cooperative Education Program (COOP). Agreements are made with an accredited school combined with periods of career-related work in a Federal agency. Students earn federal benefits. Students interested in applying for a SCEP position should contact the Cooperative Education Coordinator at their school. –Student Temporary Employment Programs (STEP) - Does not have to be in your career field. The position is not to exceed one year with incremental extensions. It is great for career exploration.

12 12 Ernest F. Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship Program – Designed to increase undergraduate training in oceanic and atmospheric science, research, technology and education, recruit and prepare students for with public service careers –$8K of academic assistance per school year –10 week paid ($650/week) internship during summer between junior and senior year –Housing subsidy during internship –Contact hollingsscholarship@ orau.gov or noaa.education @noaa.gov NOAA’s Educational Partnership Program –Sponsored by the NOAA Diversity office and funded by Congress. Students are recruited from Minority Serving Institutes. Salary and graduate school tuition are paid for while attending school. For more information on all NOAA programs –http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm Student Employment Programs at NOAA

13 13 Civil Service Positions –430 civil servant positions –Average 32 hires/year at all levels –2-4 entry-level hires/year Contract Positions –Average 140 contractors/year (over last 4 years) –Currently have 161 contractors –Approximately 28 contractor vacancies/year Student Programs –Average number of student interns - 6 (SCEP/STEP) http://www.weather.gov/eeo/StudentResearchOpportunities.htm –16 Summer hires in 2006 through various programs (http://epp.noaa.gov/, http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/Hollings_info.html )http://epp.noaa.gov/http://www.oesd.noaa.gov/Hollings_info.html NCEP Employment Summary

14 14 Summary NCEP is –Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” –Ready to work with NOAA on expanded responsibilities (e.g, oceans air and water quality, ecology,…); success is based on interdisciplinary approach –A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, service and delivery –A challenging place to work from both an applied research and operational perspective

15 15 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Groundbreaking occurred 13 March 2006 Baseline 10/18/05 FY07 Pres. Budget Construction Start 26-June-06Dec 06 Move Start24-Sep-07Feb 08 Move Complete 01-Feb-08Oct 08 Revised Construction Schedule

16 16 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction NORTH First New UMD Building


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