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Sustaining National Meteorological Services Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service Riverdale, MD June 18, 2013.

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Presentation on theme: "Sustaining National Meteorological Services Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service Riverdale, MD June 18, 2013."— Presentation transcript:

1 Sustaining National Meteorological Services Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Weather Service Riverdale, MD June 18, 2013

2 Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is based on NWP 2

3 3 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM NMMB GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMMB North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Refresh for Aviation Climate Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast GFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% ~2B Obs/Day NOS – OFS Great Lakes Northern Gulf of Mex Columbia R. Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware Space Weather ENLIL Regional DA Sea Nettle Forecast NOAA’s Model Production Suite 3

4 Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems 4

5 5 NOMADS – NOAA’s National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System  real-time and retrospective, format-independent access to climate and weather model data A Unified Access Framework approach that engages data providers and users and has a high probability of demonstrable successes Digital archive and real time data of NOAA’s operational weather models Readily provides access to domestic and international users of NWS operational models on a “come and get it” basis. Distributing NWS Operational Model Data: NOMADS Capabilities

6 Increasing model resolution will require larger NOMADS capabilities Increasing number of users accessing model output from around the world will require more rapid response capabilities 6 Major Challenges to NOMADS

7 7 Run NWS Global Forecast Systems at higher resolution out to 10 days High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) 3 kilometer resolution Runs every hour Ensembles: Higher Resolutions Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) (going from 55km to 21 km) Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) (going from 16 km to 12 km) Hurricane Models (to be run at 3km) Accelerate Storm Surge Modeling for NY, NJ, and New England An Example of the Model Resolution Increase


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