1. 2012 AAG Annual Meeting Panel Session “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Working at the Intersection of Geography and Atmospheric Science: Early Career Scholars 1 10 AM, February 24, 2012 Sheraton Hotel, New York, NY Panelists: Kimberly Klockow – University of Oklahoma Eric Holthaus – University of Arizona Randy Peppler – University of Oklahoma Chandana Mitra – Auburn University Kenneth Blumenfeld – ORC International Jennifer Collins – University of South Florida Louis Uccellini – NOAA

2. 2 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

3. 3 What Does NCEP Do? -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings 3

4. Land Ocean Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems Real-time operations require world’s largest computers BIOLOGY/CHEMISTRY NOW BEING INCLUDED Atmosphere Cryosphere Model Production Suite Based on an Earth System Science Approach 4

5. 5 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite CFS MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 5 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% ~2B Obs/Day NOS PORTS GLOFS Chesapeake Tampa Delaware ADCIRC Space Weather ENLIL Coupled (Future) Regional DA

6. 6 Community Noah Land-Surface Model

7. 7 Hurricane Irene Track Forecast August 20, 2011 – August 27, 2011

8. 8 Precipitation Forecast Loop Precipitation Verification Loop Hurricane Irene Precipitation August 26 – 29, 2011

9. Outlook issued 5 days prior; Moderate Risk issued 3 days in advance; High Risk issued 16 hours in advance Coordination calls initiated w/FEMA and state emergency managers 3 days in advance Average warning lead time 24 min 209 tornadoes, 316 fatalities Deadliest outbreak since March 21, 1932 550 tornado fatalities in 2011, 4 th deadliest year since 1925 Issues identified at Norman, OK event: Weather Ready Nation - A Vital Conversation Demands social-physical science partnership to address the “last mile” in watches/warnings/understanding 9 April 27-28, 2011 Southeast Tornado Outbreak 10AM – 11PM CDT April 27, 2011 9

10. 10 Concluding Remarks Advance of predictive skill based on numerical models – one of the top intellectual advances of the 20 th century Based increasingly on earth systems models and interdisciplinary science –Including geography/meteorology/oceanography 2013 AMS Annual Meeting theme: –“Taking Predictions to the Next Level: Expanding Beyond Today’s Weather and Climate Forecasts and Projections” –Designed to build off interdisciplinary partnerships –An important partnership involves the atmospheric-ocean sciences-geography intersection –Completing the “last mile” to expand beyond today’s forecasts points to a physical science-social science intersection/overlap, especially for mitigation and adaptation