1. A winning formula.

2. And our favorite critic says… “I predict non-paid, opt-in models will become the norm. “I would rather have consumers say they want the magazine and have it delivered to their homes than wastefully dump titles in waiting rooms and the like. “I guarantee we would see a lift in engagement scores in magazines readers when, to get his or her favorite title for free, all a potential magazine reader must do is ask for it. “Let’s face it: How many titles really make money on circulation anymore?” Robin Steinberg, SVP, MediaVest Advertising Age, March 9, 2007

3. Rate Base: Root of bad behavior -- Jon Fine

4. Rate base: Hard Truth #1

5. Rate Base: Hard Truth #2 Acquisition Cost Volume

6. Rate Base: Hard Truth #2 Acquisition Cost Volume

7. Rate Base: Hard Truth #2 Acquisition Cost Volume

8. Sometimes “dumb” is smart. Annual ad revenue/subscriber: $35 Annual P&D cost/subscriber:$12 Profit before circ costs$23 Circulation cost for add’l subs:$13 Ratebase +50M/5% profit$500M Magazine profit/add’l subscriber:$10

9. #1: ABC Changes Slow The pace and scope of ABC rules changes will slow tremendously. (Or else.)

10. #2: More Brand-Name Closings

11. #3: More Rate Base Cuts Joining 21% of ABC titles since 2000 Source: Capell’s Circulation Report

12. #4: New Launches? Just as many as ever – but faster decision cycles.

13. #5: Non-Paid Circulation Gains Growing acceptance of the value of non-paid circulation: verified/qualified/controlled. ABC Paragraph 6, 6A, 6B “Verified Public Place”

14. #6: Audience Metric Gains Growing acceptance of audience over ratebase for measurement and guarantees.

15. #7: Subscription Prices? Down.

16. #8: Digital? Little Change.

17. #9: Internet’s Growing Role… Breakthrough year for magazines on the internet in content quality, audience. Magazine X: Internet Access Search Topic X Weekly Visit MagazineX.com Weekly

18. #9: …Supported By Big Bets.

19. #10: Internet Backlash The internet will experience an advertiser backlash that could benefit magazines.

20. #11: Growing Scrutiny For TV

21. #12: Magazine Readers Will Grow. MRI analysis shows that magazine readership has grown by 7% over past 10 years. 171.4 million 184.1 million $75,000+ HHI+90%

22. Bonus Prediction Print will be relevant for a long time. We’re betting on it.

23. Thank you.