1. 1 Comparing Futures for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Engineers: Jay Lund, UC Davis* William Fleenor, UC Davis Economists: Ellen Hanak, PPIC* Richard Howitt, UC Davis Biologists: Peter Moyle, UC Davis William Bennett, UC Davis Geologist: Jeffrey Mount, UC Davis *Lead authors Supported with funding from Stephen D. Bechtel, Jr. David and Lucile Packard Foundation

2. 2 Problems of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Physical instability – Land subsidence – Sea level rise – Floods – Future earthquakes Ecosystem instability – Invasive species – Habitat alteration Prohibitive costs for maintaining all islands Worsening water quality for agric. & urban users

3. 3 Delta of Tomorrow Will be Different Large bodies of open water and higher sea level Increased salinity, habitat variability Higher water quality costs – even if all islands remain intact Based on economic value of land and assets, many islands not worth repairing after flooding (blue)

4. 4 Comparing Water Export Strategies Long-Term (to Mid-Century) Current Strategy: through the Delta Peripheral Canal: around the Delta Dual Conveyance: both through and around the Delta No Exports: use other water sources and use less

5. 5 Evaluation Criteria: “Co-Equal” Goals Delta ecosystem – Delta Vision: “sustainable environment” – Our report: viability of native fish populations – Expert judgment Water supply – Delta Vision: “reliable water supply” – Our report: statewide economic costs – Construction & operations, water quality, supply cutbacks Use ranges to capture uncertainty

6. 6 Fish Population Viability Estimates

7. 7 Decision Tree for Economic Cost

8. 8 16 Questions with 32 Answers

9. 9 Through-Delta Pumping: Low Chance of Restoring Fish, High Costs Likelihood of Fish Viability (%) Through-Delta Exports Delta smelt Economic Cost ($Billions/year) 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.511.522.53

10. 10 Ending Exports: Better for Fish, But Even More Costly Likelihood of Fish Viability (%) Economic Cost ($Billions/year) 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.511.522.53 Delta smelt Through-Delta Exports No Exports

11. 11 Peripheral Canal: Mid-range for Fish Viability, Least Costly Economic Cost ($Billions/year) Likelihood of Fish Viability (%) No Exports Through-Delta Exports 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.511.522.53 Delta smelt Peripheral Canal

12. 12 Dual Conveyance: Similar to PC for Fish, Probably More Costly Economic Cost ($Billions/year) Likelihood of Fish Viability (%) No Exports Peripheral Canal Dual Conveyance Through- Delta Exports 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.511.522.53 Delta smelt

13. 13 Similar Ranking for Chinook Salmon Economic Cost ($Billions/year) Likelihood of Fish Viability (%) Through- Delta Exports No Exports Peripheral Canal Dual Conveyance 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.511.522.53 Chinook salmon

14. 14 Is there a better tradeoff? Economic Cost ($Billions/year) Likelihood of Fish Viability (%) No Exports Peripheral Canal Through- Delta Exports 0 20 40 60 80 100 0.511.522.53 Delta smelt Peripheral Canal++?

15. 15 Conclusions No perfect solutions. Delta inevitably more saline with more open water, for any water export strategy. Changes harm water users, but likely better for fish – especially with export pumping removed. Peripheral canal seems best for “co-equal” fish and water supply. No exports best for fish alone. Don’t rely on Delta levees to protect water supply. These conclusions are more robust than we expected.

16. 16 Build a Peripheral Canal for Economic, Environmental Goals Export users commit up front to pay for facilities Export water users and upstream diverters contribute funds/water for ecosystem – Water quality savings from a canal Expand PC diversions with fish conditions Do not arbitrarily limit canal size – Better environmental operations – Use governance & ownership safeguards Use PC benefits to help fund environment

17. 17 Prepare for a Changing Delta Ecosystem Habitat plans for – Climate change – Sea level rise – Permanent levee failures – New invasive species Favor diverse habitat and flow for multiple species Plan to make mistakes; they will happen. Experimentation and detailed modeling needed – Include flooding at least one island

18. 18 Develop a New Framework for Delta Governance and Regulation Build a more centralized, decision-capable system Stakeholders cannot negotiate solution alone State leadership (governor and legislature) is required Prepare for regulatory consequences of sea level rise, climate warming, and island failures now

19. 19 For More Information Research Brief, main report, technical appendices, animations, and spreadsheets available at: www.ppic.orgwww.ppic.org